Monday, April 11, 2011

Early polls give edge to Humala in Peru election

The nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala has won the first round of the presidential Peru, according to exit polls polls. The polls show the candidate of Peru Earn 31.6% of the vote, well ahead of his two immediate pursuers: Keiko Fujimori's populist and former Minister of Economics Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK), almost tied with 21.4% and 19.2% respectively.

Former President Alejandro Toledo, who until last month was the favorite, fell behind in the race with 16.1%. Before an election so close and with so many undecided votes at stake, it is still impossible to venture who will Humala's opponent in the final round of 5 June. It is traditionally the day of the election that the candidates have breakfast before the TV cameras.

Keiko Fujimori came first with her husband, a daughter and siblings. Following the custom established his father, former president was sentenced to 25 years for crimes against humanity, sat at the wooden table in his home in Lima. "May God enlighten all Peruvians, give us wisdom and peace, to choose candidates who will advance to the second round," he said.

Humala also had breakfast with his wife, Nadine, and their three children, two girls and a baby, in the upper middle class district of Surco. The nationalist, much more cheerful and moderate when he ran for president for the first time in 2006, urged Peruvians to vote fearlessly. Aware that his radical past attracts much concern among conservative and middle classes of a country that has generated much wealth in recent years thanks to a market economy, Humala appeared calm and smiling.

He had done everything to soften his message: promising to keep the economic course, ensure that he would respect private property and freedom of the press, and to reach out to the influential archbishop of Lima, a member of Opus Dei, Luis Cipriani, to prevent their critical. The only one who went to vote in a suit was Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PKK).

True to his style of pragmatic man and no friend of the ceremonial hastily voted almost no time to photographers to capture the moment when she voted for the first time as a presidential contender. Breakfast at the side of his wife in the middle of a press conference a sandwich and coffee.

Toledo, meanwhile, was also true to form, voted surrounded by a crowd of supporters in an image reminiscent of a group of fans waiting to embrace his idol out of a concert. Completed the scene long and thick mane of El Cholo Toledo pushing through the crowd. It seemed that the 20 million Peruvians called to the polls were all there.

"If we survive this election. If the alert goes without tragedy, then they should consider a few but major reforms: the coherent and comprehensive struggle against corruption, the effort to achieve a more competent and the priority for policy improvement and social equity. The development that has taken Peru is plagued with shortcomings, inefficiencies and inequities, in addition to much corruption.

Social resentment has been and is, therefore, great. Also was accompanied by a deep distrust, often justified, in almost all state agencies, "says journalist and political analyst Gustavo Gorriti. Without a majority in Congress draft reforms will not be an easy task. Regardless of the outcome of presidential elections, what is already clear is that none of the forces more popularity, Humala, Fujimori, PPK, Toledo and fifth in the running, the former mayor of Lima Luis Castañeda, have an absolute majority in the future Congress.

It is estimated that Peru Possible movement of Toledo and Fujimori Fuerza 2011 accounts for the largest number of seats to thirty, while Humala's nationalist movement is just over 20. The rest of the posts, to complete the 130, is divided between PPK lists of Castaneda and the APRA party of outgoing President Alan Garcia, who is expected to suffer a tremendous thud.

The fragmentation is not new to the Peruvian Parliament. Unlike what happened in most of the nineties, the two Congresses that have been elected since 2001 have been dominated by any party. Those who believe that the absence represents an opportunity rather than a risk they do thinking about a hypothetical victory of Humala in the presidential election.

The lack of control over Congress, they say, will force him to moderate. Thus, they reason, Peru will maintain an institution that can deal with the excesses of the executive, contrary to what happened in Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, where every president populist-nationalist Parliament have been at their mercy.

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