Sunday, June 5, 2011

Humala wins by five points according the first polls

The nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala has a five-point lead in the race for the presidency of Peru, according to early exit polls polls to. The data give the candidate of Peru Earn 52.6% of the vote compared to 47.4% that give Keiko Fujimori's populist Force 2011. Although there are more than five points difference, the poll has a margin of error of three percentage points above and below.

Before an election so close and with so many undecided votes at stake, it is still impossible venture which one will become the next president, the 101 in the country's history since independence in 1821. In the local nationalist candidate's campaign, his team of advisers has already begun to celebrate the anticipated victory with slogans like "Yes we did, it could" and "Ollanta president." The company Ipsos-Apoyo, Datum ICC and offering their findings in two different television channels, agree Humala victory with over 52% of the vote, although government agencies have insisted that we must await the results of the National Electoral Processes.

The power of the undecided The day dawned cloudy in Lima and a newsagent's elegant district of Miraflores was reluctant to interpret it as a bad omen. "Oh, sir, hopefully it will not cloud our future ...". The man is one of many undecided voters this Sunday are practically in their hands the name of the next president of Peru.

During the final days before election day this Sunday the polls have swung like a pressure gauge out of control: one gave a slight advantage to the nationalist Ollanta Humala in the populist and other Keiko Fujimori. Everything indicates that moose who will win by a handful of votes. More than 4,000 schools where Peruvians can vote opened at eight in the morning until four in the afternoon, local time (closed at eleven o'clock at night in Spain).

And even if you have begun to disseminate surveys to exit polls exit polls, the first official figures will start to publish about two hours after polling stations closed. The expectation that the elections have raised is more than justified. After a first round two months ago in which his own clumsiness the two candidates were eliminated from the political center, the presidency has been in the hands of the two most extreme populist opponents, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori was sentenced to 25 years in prison for crimes against humanity, and before Communion exmilitar with Chavez says Venezuela and now identify with the more moderate left the continent.

The choice between the horror of the past and fear the future is a tough test for Peru and Latin America. Just 40 years ago there were only three democracies in the region and now as a lot can be said that there are a few autocracies. Available to the entire continent is the consolidation of systems that establish freedom and equality of opportunity.

Sunday's elections have is a test of whether political and economic advances are irreversible or whether the risk of reverting to the days of authoritarianism and economic chaos still lurks. Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Chile ..., with all its flaws and unresolved, are countries that have achieved a balance between political and economic system that gives stability and allows citizens to not only dream of being, but hold hope to get it.

This conviction, a pillar of development is also evident in Peru, was described by one of the fathers of modern economics, William Stanley Jevons Britain: "We can call a man happy, no matter how low their position and reduced her possessions, can always expect more of what you have and feel that every moment of effort tends to achieve their aspirations.

" But while most Peruvians feel that way, there are still 35% do not understand that. Peru has been growing economically much, but has neglected the equitable distribution of income and this mistake can cost you 20 years of effort today. So both candidates pledged to maintain the model of development but with a twist on social policies to curb the popular discontent of those who have not seen the benefits that the economy has advanced at an average rate of 5% annually the past 10 years.

However, many voters, especially the middle class that has flourished in the heat of the boom, do not trust that Humala will fulfill the promise to maintain the economic model or that Keiko Fujimori tempted to crush freedoms to govern as they please. "My hand can be no doubt," he said on Friday the candidate of Ghana Peru after an interview, "but on the other hand there is evidence.

The people who accompanied Fujimori and Montesinos [the former head of secret service] is the same as now accompanying Keiko. " But the candidate says Fuerza 2011 "Commander" Humala can not talk of integrity when he weighed about allegations of abuse of authority and businesses with drug trafficking during his military.

Neither provides certainty about their democratic credentials. The campaign was very dirty and has polarized Peruvian society. Humala won the support of former President Alejandro Toledo and equipment that consolidated the path of economic growth after the end of Fujimori. Keiko joined the former Minister of Finance Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and other politicians to moderate their image center and hired the former mayor of New York, Rudolph Giuliani, to advise him in the fight against crime.

Apart from the transfers, the presidential race reopened old wounds and stirred old resentments. The Literature Nobel Mario Vargas Llosa decided to support Humala, and Fujimori responded by adding to its ranks the economist Hernando de Soto, the mortal enemy of the writer since the days when a presidential candidate against Alberto Fujimori.

Humala's enemies were responsible for reviving the abuses committed during the war against terrorism and to put the exmilitar in the middle of infamy. Everything seen and heard these days remember the book The fish in the water, the memories of Mario Vargas Llosa's novel The Blue Hour "by Alonso Cueto, or research in the Pentagonito Death of journalist Ricardo Useda, which account the abuses of internal conflict ...

Just need the promise of Peruvian life, the ideal of a better life described by the historian Jorge Basadre that has been reborn and has frustrated thousands of times.

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