Monday, March 14, 2011

Saud of Saudi reformers, frustrated by the failure of the protests

Saudi reformers shown disappointed and somewhat embarrassed by the failure of his Day of Wrath. Social networks are filled with explanations. Whatever the cause, insisting that the discontent is there and that its eruption is a matter of time. Although some officials privately admit problems alleged by the activists, the official maintains that a foreign hand (read Iran) encouraged the protests and that people and governments are united.

"If everyone loves them so much and is so happy, why did it have to do such a police presence?" Raises Mohammad al Qahtani, the head of the Association for Civil and Political Rights. Some activists argue that have caused the government's response is in itself a triumph. Others emphasize the enormous pressure that preceded the announcement.

Media (state-controlled) bombarded with the idea that the call was a foreign plot, filled mobile messages warning of fines and penalties up to observe the demonstration, and religious leaders issued a fatwa declaring any sin protest. For Al Qahtani that point was decisive. "This is a very religious society," said insisting on what already has become a stereotype.

A Western observer goes further and even claims that "the population is more conservative than their leadership." Abdulaziz Algasim disagrees. "We are not more religious than others, what happens is that the ruling elite used religion to prevent the modernization of political life," says the former judge who now co-directs a law firm.

MH, a university professor who preferred anonymity, agrees Algasim that if the Saudis have real freedom to express themselves would have an enormous desire for change. Meanwhile, without elections or reliable opinion polls it is difficult to know how much support the calls for reform have come to light, animated by the Arab riots.

"There are reasons for discontent similar to those of other countries around us," says a former minister, now retired. This man, who still maintains good relations with the authorities, citing the generation gap between rulers and ruled, corruption and unemployment as major problems. "I know that the authorities know, but diagnosing the disease is only the first step, we need to remedy," he says.

An almost automatic manner, the first reaction of King Abdullah to the unrest has been to offer an economic package. Is the answer that the rentier state built on oil revenues has given the problems of its citizens since its founding 79 years ago. But, as pointed out by sociologist Khalid Dakhil, "Society has changed and the compact set then no longer valid." So be more generous than the plan announced (estimated at around 25,000 million euros), will be insufficient if not accompanied by political measures.

"Lack of national identity" achieved a certain level of material welfare, people have other needs, "admits the former minister who remembers that in Tunisia and Egypt have been the middle class that has encouraged the riots. Why then Saudi inaction? Most respondents agreed that the population is not yet on the horns of a dilemma.

In fact, activists question the monarchy not only calling for reform to enable the participation of citizens in running the country, leaving scope for tackling the crisis. "It is impossible. Even if the royal family would accept the changes you ask, the system is so corrupt that regeneration is impossible," believes MH, Professor.

Like the rest, mentioned the deterioration of education and public health, lack of infrastructure at the level of revenues, and the alliance between business and real family business that converts into a preserve. It is not the only one who believes that only lack the trigger for the outbreak of discontent.

The possibilities range from excessive use of force in the event of a protest, to friction in the complicated process of succession is coming, to those imprisoned without trial. In any case, differences with Tunisia and Egypt are also important and certainly weighed to the Saudis have not been mobilized.

"Unlike those countries we do not have institutions such as unions or political parties, even the army is an institution to middle management because they are by family, nor have a national identity," says the former minister. And is that while Tahrir protesters chanting "Egypt, Egypt, chanted the name of this country is chanting the name of the royal family, the Al Saud.

Maybe that's why the Saudis are more concerned with the outcome of the uprising in Libya than any other country of their environment. "Gaddafi used to stay in power the same arguments that the Saudi monarchy, the tribes, Al Qaeda and brute force," said one respondent. His implication is that if the Libyans failed to end his tyranny, mark the path.

The Saudis fear chaos more than the lack of freedom. Is the letter that the authorities are playing and what keeps many in silence.

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