Sunday, April 3, 2011

What energy model for Japan tomorrow?

The accident nuclear power plant in Fukushima highlighted flaws in the system of electricity generation Japanese, with a supplier to the brink of financial strangulation, a rejection by the population of nuclear power and the difficulties of supply in the northern half of the country. But Japan could also benefit from its advanced research on energy conservation.

The specific model of electrical Ten major Japanese electric companies, each with a regional monopoly, 85% fall in the market for electricity supply in Japan. These private companies control both the production and distribution infrastructure for electricity. Of the ten utilities, Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO, the operator of the plant in Fukushima) is by far the largest, with 27% of production capacity.

The Japanese electricity to 63% based on thermal power plants (coal, liquefied natural gas, fuel oil ...), which means, for countries with limited fossil resources, low self-sufficiency: 16%, depending data from the Information Agency on the U.S. energy. Japan is the first world importer of coal and liquefied natural gas.

Nuclear energy is the second largest source of electricity (27%). A small proportion (2%) comes from renewables, although Japan is the third largest producer of solar energy and that significant offshore wind projects are under discussion. A dual power system in the northeast of Honshu Island (an area that includes metropolitan Tokyo and its 30 million inhabitants), the production capacity of electricity decreased by 20%.

Eleven nuclear reactors (including the six reactors at Fukushima) and a dozen power stations in the region are in fact shut down since March 11. Daily power cuts of three hours can regulate the distribution, and several companies have already adopted schedules of night so as not to influence the supply of electricity to affected areas.

But the lack of production plus a very special Japanese detail by El Pais: since the late nineteenth century, Japan is running on two different frequencies of electricity, which makes heavy disaster assistance. The north-east of the archipelago is fed to a frequency of 50 hertz, like most European countries, while the south-west, including the power grid was built in collaboration with the American General Electric, is fed to a frequency of 60 hertz.

However, Japan has very few converters that would supply the northern archipelago with the electricity produced in the South. "This is a contradiction again, which increases the bitterness felt by a majority of Japanese, such a small country (377,835 km2), also developed technologically, has two separate power grids and if bit converters, "said El Pais.

The conversion between the two frequencies is possible, says an expert interviewed by the Madrid daily, but it will certainly wait "months" before it is effective. What restructuring for the sector? The organization of the sector in ten electricians scale is regional sustainable futures? The accident Fukushima shows the limits of an organization in which a regional structure must not only bear the costs of intervention on the nuclear power plant damaged but the compensation of all victims of this accident, evacuees, or farmers whose production has become unsaleable.

Rumors have circulated in the week about a possible nationalization of TEPCO. But on Friday, April 1, Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, has insisted that TEPCO would remain a private company, but would benefit from public subsidies. The Minister for Industry, Banri Kaieda, has said the government would create a special committee to study the type of financial aid that the state could provide.

There is no indication thus far that the regional distribution and status of private Japanese power companies are reviewed. Questioning nuclear: what alternatives? "There was talk before the earthquake of 11 March, to bring the nuclear share of 27% to 50% by 2030," said Evelyne Dourille-Feer, an economist at the Centre for Future Studies and International Information, and specialist in the Japanese economy, in particular to reduce dependence on imports of the Archipelago of coal, oil and gas.

But that goal has obviously been seen since the accident, and one can expect a nuclear freeze in the coming years. "The companies that operate nuclear power plants have already begun assessing the cost to go upmarket and improve the security of their nuclear equipment," says Evelyn Dourille-Feer.

The cost of nuclear power will strongly increase and will not be as competitive compared to conventional power plants, based on petroleum, liquefied natural gas or coal. " Installing solar panels on top of a public building in Minami-Sanriku town northeast of Honshu devastated by the earthquake of 11 March.

AP / Daisuke Fukushima Uragami The accident and the nuclear freeze that is emerging in Japan are also an opportunity to accelerate development of renewable energy. But these are far from being able to replace the share of nuclear power. "At hydro-electric power, the maximum is already exploited, finds Evelyn Dourille-Feer, so there is no major developments to be expected from this point of view." Solar and wind have more room for improvement, but their share is marginal.

Analysts envision therefore mainly a development of conventional power stations, with the key to rising emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. A sign that does not deceive: shortly after the disaster of 11 March, the price of coal jumped by 11% while that of liquefied natural gas took 4%.

Advanced research on energy conservation in parallel to the expected reorganization of the energy sector, "the Japanese will spend a lot of credits in research on energy conservation, as they did in the past, after the oil shocks of the 70s, "said Evelyne Dourille-Feer. To compensate for its lack of fossil raw materials, Japan has indeed developed an early national research plan on saving energy.

A law since 1979 and requires manufacturers to improve their energy efficiency by 1% each year, and every plant must have at least one employee dedicated to this subject. Another law established in 1998, known as the "top runner", requires each new industrial model to emulate, if not surpass, the models most energy efficient on the market.

The Japanese authorities have thus created a spirit of competition between manufacturers, forcing them to energy innovation constant. There is no doubt that Japan has become the market leader of motor vehicles and electric hybrids. Consequence of this policy pioneering research in energy savings, the Japanese consume less than half the per capita energy than Americans, according to UN data.

The level of energy consumption is equivalent to forty years ago, despite rising living standards. According to official projections, the energy consumption should increase by only 0.7% per year until 2018. After Fukushima, the Japanese will therefore try to build on their lead in saving energy to reduce their dual dependence on imports of nuclear and fossil raw materials.

Le Monde. en

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