Sunday, March 6, 2011

Revolts in the Arab world arouse nervousness Pyongyang

Tokyo correspondent - The regime in Pyongyang threatens South Korea military reprisals if she continues to send the North by balloon leaflets encouraging people to revolt following the example of the uprisings in the Arab world. In a statement released Sunday, February 27, Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) had expressed readiness to open fire at the scene near the demilitarized zone that separates the two countries and where the South Korean army operates these released balloons.

Despite these threats, the authorities in Seoul have said, Thursday, March 3, they would not intervene to stop sending to the North by a group of defectors from some 200,000 pamphlets, along with DVD and USB drives on events in the Middle East. Following the bombing in November of the South Korean island of Yongpyong by artillery North, Seoul has resumed its psychological warfare and sent nearly three million footballs on the other side of the line, a practice that was arrested in 2000.

Since February 25, in addition to food and medicine, these balloons carrying leaflets on the "inexorable decline in dictatorial regimes." The warning comes amid North Korean military maneuvers the venue for the annual US-South Korean. Although the situation in Arab countries is radically different from the socio-historical and geopolitical, from that of the DPRK, the reasons for discontent are not lacking in a population suffering from severe shortages and under the yoke of a totalitarian system .

The food situation seems more alarming than it was in 2007-2008, when a severe shortage that followed a famine in the middle of the previous decade (nearly one million dead). Organizations defending human rights in the South have reported deaths from cold and sporadic revolts that have resulted in clashes with the army.

In Sinuiju near the Chinese border, the demonstrators demanded "the food and light (due to power outages). According to Daily NK website on-line information, the plan would set up a special anti-riot force. Shortages, plus a widening social gap between the majority and the elite expanded to a new class of merchants who "make money" on the parallel market.

Despite dissatisfaction with the state are refugees in the South, experts are skeptical about the possibilities of revolt. "There is no sign of organized resistance," said a source close to intelligence services in the South. "I do not think that a revolution similar to that of the Middle East can occur in the DPRK," said Zhu Feng, an expert on international issues at Beijing University, quoted by Asia Times Online.

"A revolt is never excluded, but not in the foreseeable future," said Andrei Lankov, an expert on the DPRK at Kookmin University in Seoul. Although cut off from the rest of the world, part of the population is more or less informed about what is happening outside through clandestine channels: migrants and traders going to and returning from China, television or radio short wave Chinese or South Korean captured illegally, communications mobile phones in border areas ...

At the risk of severe punishment. "I do not think that what happens in the Middle East for the North Koreans and even less they see it as an example to follow," says Andrei Lankov. In the absence of independent social organizations (trade union, church) that could serve as a relay, through horizontal communication (Internet access is restricted to a small elite, as are 300,000 mobile phones in use), or let alone dissent, the emergence of an opposition movement seems unlikely.

Any attempt would be crushed in the bud. In addition, the regime has managed so far to play in his favor maintaining a fierce patriotism in public with a permanent siege mentality. Philippe Pons

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