Monday, May 16, 2011

The IMF chief's departure would upset the global economic negotiations

Whatever had to happen in a room at the Sofitel Hotel in New York, the chances of Dominique Strauss-Kahn to emerge unscathed from the charge of attempted rape are low in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Connoisseurs of the institution deem "shocking" or "staggering" the facts leading to a real field of ruins, to the extent of the prominent place that the Director General of the Fund had acquired globally.

So far the board and the ethics committee of the IMF had shown leniency towards him. The previous director, Rodrigo Rato, was scolded for having participated in a meeting of the People's Party (right) of Spain, in violation of the rule which prohibits the director of doing politics. Neither the presence of Mr.

Strauss-Kahn at a meeting of Socialist Mutual Benefit Societies in 2009, nor his veiled comments on his possible candidacy for president French have been reprimanded. It is likely that the IMF board, which met informally and formally Sunday 15 May Monday, decided to check closely that its director has met the requirements of the institution that require them to "follow the highest standards of ethical behavior , consistent with the values of integrity, impartiality and discretion.

" Especially since he had already criticized for his "misjudgment" for his affair with a subordinate, in 2008. If the board is convinced that its loss of credibility does not allow him to "do the job", he asked to leave at short notice, predicted an alumnus of the institution. The absence of Mr.

Strauss-Kahn will be heavily felt in the Eurogroup meeting on Monday 16 May in Brussels. The Assistant Director General, Nemat Shafik, who replaces it is a development expert, but not the financial and monetary issues. Retained by the police, the director could not, Sunday, defending - in German - from Angela Merkel a position that is dear to him.

According to him, he must give to Greece, Ireland and Portugal have time to recover and for that, give them the money necessary to relieve them of using markets to finance their debt. Since the beginning of the Greek crisis in late 2009, he opposed the purists - which he called "madmen" - the European Union led by Germany and the European Central Bank (ECB).

He wanted a new relief is granted to Greece, to push at the end of 2012 or later, his return to the markets. With Jean-Claude Trichet, head of the ECB (on leave), and in the absence of a credible European power, it has become one of the keystones of the euro and the Europe, a "real wild card" to unlock the negotiations, according to a European diplomat.

He is the only one who can persuade the emerging economies, IMF members and disgruntled billions promised the Europeans deeply indebted that the aid should be granted because of the danger of a collapse for the European world. In a few days, we can only fear of new speculative attacks against the country in difficulty, with the fall of the euro in Asia on Monday, is a harbinger, if market participants believe Europe and the IMF can not to agree to mobilize additional EUR 60milliards claimed by Greece.

The situation could quickly become uncontrollable. Neutralizing the IMF chief would complicate the work of the G20 under the French presidency. Indeed, it has managed to turn his institution into a gatekeeper at the technical level, since its piloting services in most cases: reforming the international monetary system or developing tools to measure the danger of macroeconomic imbalances, excess of savings or debt, the risk of trade balances, exchange rate abnormalities or excessive capital flows.

Politically, any other officer of the Fund is able to persuade heads of state and government to listen to the complaints of their peers against the policies they put in place without precautions. John Lipsky, the first deputy to replace him today, is a man who erased will not seek re-election, August 31.

American John Lipsky is viewed with suspicion by developing countries. Faith Dominique Strauss-Kahn in multilateralism and negotiation skills made the midwife of global consensus. Nobody can replace him on May 27 at the G8 in Deauville. Nobody else can do in June and forth between Asia, America and Europe to reconcile points of view on the handling of the economy intended to assure the world growth "strong, balanced and sustainable ".

Him away, the centrifugal forces may be strengthened, especially as the IMF provides the de facto secretariat of the G20. Fund itself, the events in New York look like an earthquake. Dominique Strauss-Kahn IMF had inherited a deficit and discredited for his dogmatism and his reckless policies of their social consequences.

On 30 April, he closed a budget benefit of 1.261 billion dollars and some NGOs in Washington acknowledge that they have a hard time criticizing a director cons often left them in his denunciation of inequality and depravity banks. The IMF found himself becoming "bogeyman", but countries in bankruptcy doctor.

The successor to Dominique Strauss-Kahn will retain Does this orientation dear to poor countries? Risk designation does she not lead to rifts between industrialized countries (who controlled the IMF) and developing countries (who also consider themselves capable of directing) endangering the fragile global consensus, the main achievements of the Crisis? "A disaster!" Said one European diplomat.

Alain Faujas Article published in the edition of 17.05.11

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