Monday, May 2, 2011

"This death will encourage centrifugal tendencies within Al-Qaeda"

Jean-Pierre Filiu is a specialist of jihadism. There is also a historian, professor at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Paris. Joining Al-Qaeda was taking place on the basis of a personal and absolute allegiance to bin Laden. No mechanism of succession was expected and the personal equation of the founder of the organization in terms of prestige and charisma media activist, is unique.

His deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian national, has no capacity to impose a similar fashion. This disappearance will soon encourage centrifugal tendencies within Al Qaeda, between a "center" increasingly Pakistanization and thus foreign to the realities of Arab, an Iraqi branch now identified with the most aggressive Sunni and Al-Qaeda Arabian peninsula, marked by its size and ambition Saudi Yemeni, who undoubtedly will refuse to match an Egyptian ruler.

Within AQIM, the death of bin Laden will exacerbate tensions between the "emir" and command of the organization, Abdelmalek Droukdal, who had sworn allegiance to bin Laden personally, and one of his subordinates for the Sahara, Abdelhamid Abu Zeid, who still holds five Western hostages (including four French hostages abducted in Arlit) and have direct relations with Al-Zawahiri.

Subject to the clarifications that will not fail to be provided on that operation in the coming hours, a parallel is needed with the death of [Abu Musab] al-Zarqawi [al-Qaida leader in Iraq] in American bombing in June 2006. The campaign waged by the CIA drone cons shelters jihadists in the tribal areas of Pakistan has paid off, forcing bin Laden to flee to the outskirts of Islamabad, where he had become as vulnerable as al-Zarqawi, five years early, out of Anbar province.

It was a triumph for Barack Obama, who, as always, the modest victory. Its control strategy targeted against al-Qaida is paying off, breaking with the disastrous "global war against terror" of his predecessor, George Bush. America can finally, after nearly a decade of work, incomplete mourning, turn the page on Sept.

11. Interview by Gilles Paris Article published in the edition of 03.05.11

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