In a chat on cnn. fr, Ourdan Remy, a journalist with Le Monde, said that a decade ago, bin Laden had offered to young Muslim jihadist revolution. Yet today, "they lead revolutions in the name of freedom and democracy, values far removed from those of Al-Qaeda." But in the case of bin Laden, it will probably be different.
His closest adviser, the Egyptian ideologue Ayman al-Zawahiri does not seem to be the next leader of the organization, first for a reason, generational and partly because it is not necessarily be popular in Saudi and Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda. It is therefore impossible to say today that will replace bin Laden in the head of al-Qaida, and even if anyone can expect to play such a role.
Bin Laden was a key figure. It is almost obvious that some of these subsidiaries may well survive the death of bin Laden. The real question concerns the Central Command, which is based in Pakistan and attracts the bulk of donor funding for the international jihad. But it may actually fear that a group leader attempts a spectacular attack that would impose the new leader of the Jihadists.
The only certainty is that they are now more numerous and present in more countries than a decade ago. This is also the only real victory of Bin Laden. The ex-GSPC, however, has gradually turned away from a fight to join the Algerian nationalist jihadist world, and that he was rather successful in recent years.
There is no recent signs of weakening Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb. The role of Pakistani military intelligence has always been murky. You are sure they are protecting the Afghan Taliban. One can imagine that they had an interest in recent years to maintain links with Al Qaeda. The history of al-Qaeda, after all, is a story that has always been deeply rooted in Pakistan.
Regarding other possible threats, we must wait to see the reactions in Yemen or in the Sahel and keep in mind that the next attack will not necessarily one who has uttered the most threatened these days. This ideological failure, however, must not hide the danger posed by jihadist groups, quite capable of causing some countries of the region into violence.
Barack Obama said in his speech, however, that bin Laden or his guards had withstood the attack, opened fire, hitting back and that a U.S. soldier had killed the leader of al-Qaida. I do not think we should see the word "justice" a reference to the legal issues that we have. Waiting to see if the order was effectively to kill bin Laden or whether Washington had considered the possibility of an eventual capture and trial.
Bin Laden's death is such a success for him I suppose that the operation took place as soon as the Americans were confident that the leader of al-Qaida was in the residence and that the assault could be crowned success. The Western military involvement in Afghanistan is complex, but certainly not only justified by the fight against Al Qaeda.
If the only goal of the West was the fight against Al Qaeda, then it is Pakistan that have been invaded in December 2001, and not Afghanistan. Moreover, the successive arrests of leaders of the group responsible for attacks on September 11, 2001, as today the death of bin Laden, clearly demonstrate that it is not with armies that can stop Al-Qaeda or found jihadist leaders.
It is through covert action, the action of intelligence, and sometimes the police action. Bin Laden himself had designated France as a priority target, and French anti-terrorism agencies have long been on high alert. If the reverse were true, we do not know maybe ever, and it is understandable that the Pakistanis, who have thousands of jihadists on their territory, fear a resurgence of attacks if their cooperation with the Americans was discussed publicly.
Chat moderated by François Béguin 
His closest adviser, the Egyptian ideologue Ayman al-Zawahiri does not seem to be the next leader of the organization, first for a reason, generational and partly because it is not necessarily be popular in Saudi and Yemeni branch of Al Qaeda. It is therefore impossible to say today that will replace bin Laden in the head of al-Qaida, and even if anyone can expect to play such a role.
Bin Laden was a key figure. It is almost obvious that some of these subsidiaries may well survive the death of bin Laden. The real question concerns the Central Command, which is based in Pakistan and attracts the bulk of donor funding for the international jihad. But it may actually fear that a group leader attempts a spectacular attack that would impose the new leader of the Jihadists.
The only certainty is that they are now more numerous and present in more countries than a decade ago. This is also the only real victory of Bin Laden. The ex-GSPC, however, has gradually turned away from a fight to join the Algerian nationalist jihadist world, and that he was rather successful in recent years.
There is no recent signs of weakening Al Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb. The role of Pakistani military intelligence has always been murky. You are sure they are protecting the Afghan Taliban. One can imagine that they had an interest in recent years to maintain links with Al Qaeda. The history of al-Qaeda, after all, is a story that has always been deeply rooted in Pakistan.
Regarding other possible threats, we must wait to see the reactions in Yemen or in the Sahel and keep in mind that the next attack will not necessarily one who has uttered the most threatened these days. This ideological failure, however, must not hide the danger posed by jihadist groups, quite capable of causing some countries of the region into violence.
Barack Obama said in his speech, however, that bin Laden or his guards had withstood the attack, opened fire, hitting back and that a U.S. soldier had killed the leader of al-Qaida. I do not think we should see the word "justice" a reference to the legal issues that we have. Waiting to see if the order was effectively to kill bin Laden or whether Washington had considered the possibility of an eventual capture and trial.
Bin Laden's death is such a success for him I suppose that the operation took place as soon as the Americans were confident that the leader of al-Qaida was in the residence and that the assault could be crowned success. The Western military involvement in Afghanistan is complex, but certainly not only justified by the fight against Al Qaeda.
If the only goal of the West was the fight against Al Qaeda, then it is Pakistan that have been invaded in December 2001, and not Afghanistan. Moreover, the successive arrests of leaders of the group responsible for attacks on September 11, 2001, as today the death of bin Laden, clearly demonstrate that it is not with armies that can stop Al-Qaeda or found jihadist leaders.
It is through covert action, the action of intelligence, and sometimes the police action. Bin Laden himself had designated France as a priority target, and French anti-terrorism agencies have long been on high alert. If the reverse were true, we do not know maybe ever, and it is understandable that the Pakistanis, who have thousands of jihadists on their territory, fear a resurgence of attacks if their cooperation with the Americans was discussed publicly.
Chat moderated by François Béguin
- Bin Laden Was In A Huge House (02/05/2011)
- The Globe answers your questions on the death of Osama bin Laden (02/05/2011)
- Bin Laden's 'Second Death' (Folha, Brazil) (02/05/2011)
- Palestinian factions divided on response to bin Laden (02/05/2011)
- How the Arab Spring Made Bin Laden an Afterthought (02/05/2011)
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