Saturday, April 16, 2011

Lighting - The economy of Nigeria plagued by many ills

Nigeria, one of the giants of Africa, no shortage of economic assets: the continent's second largest economy behind South Africa, it has significant natural resources, foremost among them oil, which accounts for 40% of GDP. The country is in some years the 5th largest producer in OPEC, with 2.2 to 2.4 million barrels of crude extracts every day.

It is a high quality oil - the sweet crude - much sought after for fuel production. Nigeria also has many natural resources underutilized as gas, coal, gold or bauxite, which is extracted aluminum. Its agricultural sector, which still employs about 60% of the workforce, has great potential, agricultural land is underutilized.

The industry, including manufacturing, leather and textile product, the automobile is present, but also food. Its telecommunications sector has one of the fastest increases in the world, with large local operators like MTN, Globacom, or Etisalat. Finally, the financial sector is highly developed, even if it has been adversely affected by the global financial crisis.

However, as the religious and ethnic economic sphere the distinction between North and South is important. As noted by the research center Council on Foreign Relations, "the major oil reserves are located in the Niger Delta and the South is home to Lagos, the commercial capital of the country, and one of the largest cities in the world." The economy is also hit by a series of ills, including violence and rebellion, which some experts and historians consider the product of a cash economy too dependent on its mineral wealth.

Discovered in Nigeria in 1956 and first exported in 1958, oil has taken a decisive strategic dimension in the economic and political landscape in the 1960s, when it became the main source of state revenue. And according to the CIA, "the former military rulers failed to diversify the economy from its excessive dependence vis-à-vis the capital-intensive oil sector which provides 95% Foreign exchange revenue and about 80% of budget revenues.

" But despite the oil wealth, the country is poor. The International Crisis Group (ICG), a renowned think tank, says that "despite rapid economic growth and development seen in some states in the country (...) and huge oil revenues - almost $ 74 billion in 2008 to 92 % of Nigerians live on less than $ 2 per day and 70% with less than a dollar.

(...) In some areas, the state offers no water, no electricity, no education. Unemployment, especially among young people, is common [19.7% in October 2010, as the Nigerian finance minister]. "According to a study by the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI)," considerable sums of money oil from entering the state coffers to get out quickly, without improving the living standards of the population.

Economists Sala-i-Martin and Subramain (2003) provided striking figures on the situation. In Nigeria, GDP per capita in 2000 was virtually unchanged from 1970. But the proportion of population living on less than a dollar a day fell from 36 to 70%. However, between 1965 and 2000, oil income per capita rose from 33 to 325 dollars.

At the same time, income inequality has exploded. In 1970, the 2% richest earned as much as 17% poorer by 2000, this 2% earned the equivalent of 55% poorest. "Poverty is especially the Delta region."'s Web Delta is a base of economic and ecological disaster. Nearly half the 28 million inhabitants of the Delta live on less than $ 1 per day, while every year the region produces the equivalent energy needs of the United States.

Life expectancy among the population under 45 years one in ten children dies before its fifth year (UNDP 2006 )..." Another major problem, according to the International Crisis Group, "the behavior of 'research rent [by country officials] that facilitates corruption, penalizing non-oil exports and distorting the allocation of resources and reducing both economic efficiency and social equity.

"In 2004 The architects of the highly regarded National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy recognized that the oil had transformed the institution of government into a "tool for the immediate vesting of wealth and therefore reduced the incentive to work and create wealth in the private sector.

With the government as the main source of patronage and rent seeking, the fight for public office has become a matter of life and death. The prevalence of cash payments by oil companies and the government has compounded the problems. "Oil is also diverted a large scale: according to the International Crisis Group," Industry experts have estimated that losses due to Wild oil extraction (the "bunkering") ranged from 70 000 to 300 000 barrels per day, the equivalent of a small oil producer.

Estimate close to the IFRI, for whom "between 100,000 and 500,000 additional barrels of oil per day, whichever might be produced if the country was safe." The International Crisis Group estimated in 2009 that "the country has lost $ 23.7 billion because of oil theft, sabotage and the closure of production sites during the first nine months of 2008.

Another problem is much oil revenue is not allocated to regions where they originated. The inhabitants of the Delta emphasize that when Nigeria gained its independence, 50% of revenues from oil and minerals were officially awarded to areas whose these resources came from. In 1982, under the civilian administration of President Shehu Shagari, still considered the most corrupt in Nigeria, only 1.5% was directly allocated to oil producing states.

Since then, this proportion increased to only 13%. It is estimated that from 1970 to 2009, capital flight from Nigeria were $ 89.5 billion, at an average rate of 10 billion per year, according to the NGO Global Financial Integrity. This is a effects of corruption. Nigeria is ranked 130th in the world of 180 countries in Transparency International's ranking.

The anti-corruption efforts have failed to improve the lives of the average Nigerian. Jars of wine are required to obtain a document or official pass police checkpoints or military - usually around 15 cents for drivers of cars and 35 to 75 cents for trucks and taxis, a vast sum for population.

The cease-fire and amnesty in the Niger Delta have, since July 2009, calmed the violence but did not respond to the causes of it, nor have they led to a large demobilization of rebels. Observers underline the risk of renewed violence during and after the presidential election on April 16.

"There will be pockets of violence," Judge Victor Ndukauba, Afrinwest of advisers. "But we do not think it will be very serious," added the analyst. Others believe that the lull will not last, the roots of the dispute - unemployment and poverty - threatening to fuel violence. The calming atmosphere in the Niger Delta could still help boost production and to offset the market impact of the Libyan crisis.

Nigeria has seen production rise to 2.4 million barrels per day after the amnesty. But the oil majors operating in Nigeria - including Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Total - want more visibility and transparency on the financial conditions that will be made in the new legislation promised last year by President Goodluck Jonathan, candidate own succession.

The latter promised to accelerate the adoption of a new oil legislation, hoping that the majors in the sector invest in new projects. The restructuring aims to increase government revenues from offshore projects, very profitable, and reform the national airline, said to be riddled with corruption.

Other priorities, however, must be treated to boost the economy. "In the last fifteen years, Nigeria has made significant progress in some economic sectors, including banking, telecommunications and the airline industry," said an expert at the Brookings. However, both areas where there is a huge prospect, and can provide the level of employment growth necessary, namely agriculture and industry, "are weakened by deficiencies in infrastructure, especially the Energy and transport ".

An observation shared by the CIA: "The GDP grew strongly in 2007-2010 because of high oil prices in 2010. President Jonathan has promised to continue economic reforms of his predecessor by focusing on infrastructure. infrastructure are the main obstacle to growth, "said the U.S. Information Agency.

In August 2010, Jonathan has unveiled an energy plan that includes privatization of energy facilities owned by the state. The government is also working to develop public-private partnerships to build stronger roads. Energy and road infrastructure is an old problem. According to the Brookings expert, "President Umaru Yar'Adua, in 2007, had announced his intention to" declare emergency 'concerning what Nigerians call for energy supply epileptic.

"He promised increase the production of 6000 megawatts by the end of 2009 ... Despite the fact that the government has earmarked 10 billion dollars from its forex reserves to fund improvements in energy infrastructure, production available is limited around 3 000 megawatts. " Also, "transportation projects, like the long promised to the East-West Highway between Port Harcourt and Lagos and improvement of the railway linking the two large industrial sites in the north and south, Kano and Lagos have failed to emerge from the drawing board.

Much remains to be done in the economic windfall for the benefit of all Nigerians. Pflimlin Edward

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