Friday, April 15, 2011

Libya: NATO stalled, allies seek a political solution

Doha (Qatar), Special Envoy - Nearly a month after it began, the armed intervention in Libya exchange parameters. Lack of penetration of rebels, seeking a "political process" is now formally acted. The contours of this initiative, announced by the Contact Group on Libya, meeting in Doha, Qatar, Wednesday, April 13, however, remain fuzzy, a sign of the difficulty of finding a solution to the crisis.

The military stalemate on the ground, heavy risk of partition of the country, led to the quest for a "dialogue" inter-Libyan, including UN envoy to Libya, former Jordanian Minister of Affairs Foreign Abdel Ilah Al-Khatib, was asked. This was also called BRIC emerging powers (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), April 14.

France and the United Kingdom, two countries that had been at the forefront in calling for the use of force against Muammar Gaddafi, keen to ensure that this new phase - politics - does not give rise to any relaxation of air strikes, nor international sanctions. This display was at the heart of the meeting Wednesday evening at the Elysee Palace, Nicolas Sarkozy and between David Cameron, the British prime minister.

The logic: to ensure that the Libyan leader is as possible in a weak position, when the talks begin. The fate of Misrata, city opposition subject to formidable fire with heavy weapons by Libyan forces, is a major concern. The politico-military equation has changed. Gaddafi clings. The new tactics of the armed forces (of attacks by small groups aboard pickup) complicates the task of NATO aircraft.

The military option has shown its limits, the cursor is now placed on a "political solution", "the only way to bring lasting peace to Libya," as stated in the Final Declaration of the Doha meeting. The "contact group", established at a summit in London on March 29, and comprising twenty countries and international organizations, said he was "united in the belief that the continued presence of Gaddafi constitute a threat to any resolution of the crisis.

" He no longer mentions a "immediate departure" of Gaddafi. The departure of Libyan leader has ceased to be a prerequisite to any explicit political process. He becomes the ultimate objective. "Is that his departure should be before or concomitant with a process of negotiation? This point remains to be seen", commented to reporters on Wednesday in Doha, Alain Juppe, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs .

"Gaddafi has to go, but we must not wait until it's gone to arrange the Libyan political initiatives," they added at the Elysee. The coming into play of UN envoy, Abdel Ilah Al-Khatib, seeks to prevent a proliferation of mediation efforts - as recently attempted Greece, Turkey and the African Union.

Such dispersion could not get the effect that Colonel Gaddafi. But who will take part in this "dialogue" inter-Libyan? The Council of Benghazi has gained legitimacy, since one of its representatives, Djibril Mahmoud, was formally invited to the Doha meeting. But only three countries have recognized as the sole interlocutor of France, Qatar and Italy.

Its recognition is still widening. Many questions hanging over the presence in Doha to a pillar of the Libyan regime, Musa Kusa, head of intelligence for fifteen years. Arrived in late March in London, it seems, to defect, Musa Kusa has avoided calling for the overthrow of Qadhafi, merely to warn against a "civil war" in his country.

He took no part in the meeting of "contact group" to which he was not invited, but seemed to multiply outside the talks, which nothing has filtered out. Insurgents talking to exclude "those in Tripoli who have blood on their hands" and thus Musa Kusa, whose trip to Doha, authorized by the British, was to encourage defections in the entourage of Mr.

Qaddafi , according to diplomats. Create the conditions for large sections of the plan are turning away from Mr. Qaddafi - or that the Libyan himself threw in the towel - remains a major concern. This poses particular the question of guarantees that may be offered, when international justice has been entered.

Gaddafi where he could flee if he were to leave the country? The rebels fear of starting negotiations without pre Guide. "Is it peace, or rather a surrender that dare not speak its name?", They are in custody, in an article published Tuesday. The insurgency calling for deliveries of arms, a subject that has been deliberately omitted from the agenda of the Doha meeting, to preserve the unity of the "contact group".

Natalie Nougayrède Article published in the edition of 15.04.11

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