Wednesday, March 30, 2011

What will remain behind after the Arab riots dictators, leaders grow small

Who will rule the country after the fall of the Crescent autocrats? Weather very difficult: the winter of discontent Arabic is a wave that sweeps away long-established structures and certainties. But, here as elsewhere, the reading must begin with the continuity of power structures and forces that will be more able to adapt to the mighty wind of the transition.

Will play a key role in the military environment, however, the real unifying factor in society very different from Algeria to Egypt. In Syria, more than the Baath drained of executive functions as it has in Iraq, has a membership to the new asabiya, the solidarity that forge relationships based on ancient but also new relationships.

Even before the Alawite, the Syrians that matter formed at the Aleppo artillery school. So, as in Egypt, Syria's army weighs. But if it fell, and the majority Sunni Bashar Assad took power, a role he would be the Muslim Brotherhood, who in this position more radical than their brothers the Egyptians.

Especially since his father Assad crushed a large part of the organization to get up by pulling against zero Hama, a city where the Brotherhood had arisen. The victims were tens of thousands. At least until these hot days, "Hama rules" were a terrible warning to the enemies of the regime.

Even in Egypt, the army is a key factor and it is said that some members of the organization leading the transition does not become the trustee of this powerful structure that provides both national cohesion and the system of international alliances. But the shadow of the pyramids also count the Muslim Brotherhood, who have a force rooted in society and will be held with the consent of the laity as El Baradei, which could coagulate around walks of modernizing itself with the Arab League secretary general Abu Moussa or Nour, the leader of the centrist, secular Ghad party.

In Tunisia men count related to the past regime as SEBS and Morjane but also the opposition leader Chebbi, as well as the party leader Gannouchi En Nahda, the Islamist movement which now looks more experience turkish AKP that the Muslim Brotherhood from which also derives. Reverse situation to that of the Syrian is Bahrain, where the Shiite majority is ruled by a Sunni dynasty supported by Riyadh.

Here the religious affiliation becomes discriminatory in order to understand how things go. In Libya, we look to the people of the provisional National Council, in which there are members of civil society as Tarbela, leader of the protest in Benghazi, but also former members of the regime as Jalil and Yunis.

Also in Yemen, where he staggers along the power Saleh, some are former playing a role as the former Minister al Ahmar and Iryani or represented at the Arab League Mansour. As you can see, the future of the Arab countries not only has a new face. Moreover, the riots were ignited by young people who had no political experience and therefore has clear after the factors of continuity, at least in the leader.

The riots are not necessarily revolutions, even if it is clear that the new leaders will move in similar contexts in pluralist regimes that hate to autocracies.

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