Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Merkel's debacle, the green triumph collapse CDU in Baden-Wuerttemberg

BERLIN - and two heavy defeat Angela Merkel and his deputy, Guido Westerwelle in Germany. The Chancellor of the CDU lost resoundingly to power in Baden-Wuerttemberg where rich ruler since the founding of the Federal Republic. And the opposition is in Rhineland-Palatinate. In Baden-Wurttemberg, a symbol of the center-technocratic, efficient and prosperity of "model Germany", probably the next governor will be the local leader of the Greens, Winfried Kretschmann.

For the first time in history that an ecologist will lead one of 16 states of the federation. It is therefore not enough for Angela Merkel and Liberal leader, Vice-Chancellor and Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle promise goodbye to nuclear energy, with a dramatic turnaround, after the tragedy in Japan, it did not help ride the peaceful sentiments of public opinion by siding with China and Russia and against the majority of the European Union and NATO on the Libya case.

Today's vote is the most important 'Superwaljahr 2011', and the most catastrophic for the Chancellor and his center-right. From tonight the 'most powerful woman in the world' is rather a lame duck, lame duck. The shaky foundations of its power, the internal enemies in the center raise their heads.

I see in the results even more pessimistic about a possible beginning of an end. Political instability hangs over Germany throughout Europe, the federal government on every issue, from nuclear energy to Libya austerity to save the euro, trying to give lessons and give orders to its European partners, is in front of the rubble of its power.

According to initial projections derived as usual from the exit polls made public immediately after the polls close at 18 (very precise data of normal) in Baden-Wuerttemberg, the CDU, which was in power for almost 60 years falls from 44.2 percent of last election (2006) to 38 percent, his liberal allies (the party of Westerwelle) out even more than halved, falling from 10.7 percent to a result of around 5 percent.

Ie they can risk ending up just below the quorum of 5 percent necessary to enter the Landtag, the state parliament. Fly instead of the Greens, from 11, 7 to 25 per cent pass becoming the first leftist forces. Surpass even the SPD (Social Democrats) who falls from 25.2 percent to 23.5. The link, the radical left, is 3 percent, then under the quorum.

The environmentalist and anti-nuclear protests, and against the Democratic incumbent governor, Stefan Mappus the hawk had found a tough opponent, he then won the election, a serious drawback of Merkel. In Stuttgart also the mass movement against the demolition and renovation of the old quarter of the station gardens and outbuildings, led by ecologists, had become a protest cross, bipartisan, bringing middle-class and middle class to line up against the center-right.

The Greens are becoming more and more new political force 'in', which attracts leftists but also centrist, bourgeois, enlightened conservatives. It should not be better for the federal government, in Rhineland-Palatinate, and here too the crisis factor of the center is the triumph of the Greens.

The Social Democrat Kurt Beck, the powerful local governor, remains firmly in power, his SPD falls ten points to 35.5 percent and thus lost the absolute majority, but will continue to govern together with Gruenen growing by 12 points going to the 17 percent. The CDU increases instead of just one and a half to 34 percent, and then failed in his attempt to overtake the Social Democrats.

And above all, the FDP (liberals) and then falls by four points to 4 percent, below the quorum for the representation. It is an earthquake, and will feel its long wave in Berlin. Westerwelle had got their hands on to say that under no circumstances will resign as head of the FDP nor nor Vice-Chancellor and Foreign Minister.

But be sure to consult with severely weakened the Allies on Libya Tuesday in London. The situation appears heavier than that of Angela Merkel is the first head of government under Christian Democrat whose power at the national level, the CDU lost the state-bastion, the symbol of his recipe for the government.

The situation is so problematic for her that some observers do not rule out that its power could survive in the medium to long term (elections 2013) only by alliance with the Greens, by downloading the Liberals in freefall.

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