Sunday, February 27, 2011

The price of the revolution

A young man named Mohamed Bouazizi had long-or all-to do with the march hit Jordi Díez Bruno Crespi and Libya a few days ago. His company, a company that builds Tarragona golf and soccer, came to the Arab country in 2009 to make their fortune on the backs of the aspirations of Muammar Gaddafi. "We saw a country to build, full of money, and the Government does not skimp on quality for sports facilities.

Always wanted the best," said Crespi, director of Selprats, after returning from what seemed like one of his usual business trips . "In Spain there is a crisis, and there the Olympic Committee was one of the beautiful girls of the regime. Aspired to many great events and were to build 50 sports complexes in the country." Crespi left a week ago, as planned, leaving behind the demonstrations.

But his employee there, Bruno Díez, returned to Spain on Wednesday, with the country in revolt. An obsessed Gaddafi become a leader and reference in the African continent had decided to organize such international sporting events capable of luster and a certain image of modernity to a country, in this case, oil rotten dictatorship but under 40 years .

Namely, the African Cup of Youth, which was about to take place, the Mediterranean Games, who aspired, or the Africa's Cup football in 2013. Crespi's company had built four stages and more work was bespoken. This is what North Africa has made to the Spanish companies in recent years a focus of investment for those who have opted for the area, an energy supplier and a market.

Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Algeria, with growth of 2% to 6% in the last 10 years have attracted energy groups, construction and services to the warmth of his wealth in oil, its hunger for infrastructure and, some cases, the interest for tourism and distribution. Libya was-is-money.

Gaddafi was greeted with pomp in the European Union. The leading tent and camping with his guard made up of 30 women-in-blank official European capitals (in the Palacio del Pardo, without going any further, in 2007). This has been the scene until 17 December. But that day, a fruit vendor of Tunisia said no.

Bouazizi Mohamed refused to pay the bribe demanded the police to continue working permir and received a slap. Then he was beaten and robbed the car with fruit. It had happened before. But that evening, Mohamed exploded. He bought two cans of gasoline and burned alive before the police. He died on 4 January.

Social unrest unleashed as a consequence ended the dictatorship of Ben Ali 10 days later. Social anger took shape in more ways than ever young, unemployed and tired of the kleptocracy. The powder then ran into Egypt: its president, Hosni Mubarak, left Cairo on 11 February. And now the youth has spilled called Libya, where Gaddafi in Tripoli entrenched and defended by mercenaries, claimed this week to be ready to resist or, rather, to die fighting.

So new contracts provided by Selprats are in the air, and the two million euros which, according to Jordi Crespi, has to be recovered, too. Repsol is present in the country since the seventies, has evacuated its staff along with the other big oil companies and cut its crude oil production (which accounted for 3.8% of the total in 2009) to the middle.

Sacyr, with two contracts for development, is waiting for what happens. Abengoa also has presence in the country. No company quantified by the time the impact this will have on their accounts. Now there is talk in those countries democracy and dictatorship, life and death, not economics.

In Spain, yes. So far, the Ibex 35 has broken the rally has lost 2.2% this week. Uncertainty trading lower. But in the long term, democratic regimes provide greater legal certainty and corruption (though not disappear in the developed powers) loses carte blanche. Businessmen and analysts agree.

"It's very difficult for a country manages its economy more dynamic while maintaining an autocratic regime, which is what some countries have tried and what seems to China," says Vincent Pallardó, director of the Institute of International Economics at the University of Valencia. All economic liberalization generates interests of middle classes who do not accept the political impasse, he warns.

Of course, the revolutionary wave in these countries and the tension generated in neighboring assumes financial risk for the Spanish side on three fronts: one is the supply of gas and oil (Spain is an energy island: more than half the natural gas consumed comes from northern Africa and much of the oil comes from Iran, Libya and Saudi Arabia), but has not had any problems so far, another affects the investment projects of companies that have chosen to go international.

This, it has to do with investment flows are concentrated in Morocco (see box). But today, there is no tangible threat to the crazy price of oil. On Thursday, a barrel of Brent touched $ 120, the highest point since the record of 2008 (which was $ 146, but with the economy still growing).

According to government estimates, for every $ 10 increase in oil the Spanish economy lost 6,000 million for the energy bill, which feeds into the pockets family (fill the tank of the car is now between 11 and 14 euros more expensive than does a year), corporate balance sheets and accounts.

And the recovery, that approximately 2% Spain needs to grow to create jobs, it takes longer. The economic impact is, at present, on all three fronts, but the alarms are switched on depending on what is prolonging instability. What will happen to oil prices? The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has launched a message of reassurance, but the market is demanding movement.

After having touched $ 120, the announcement that Saudi Arabia will pump more crude prices eased at the end of the week, to be on the border of the 112. "If the price is encysted on the 110, will reduce the intensity of the recovery and inflationary pressures may unnerve the European Central Bank to raise interest rates, would be a new obstacle to recovery," says Emilio Ontiveros, President of International Financial Analysts (AFI).

The Government does not plan to time revise its growth forecast for this year of 1.3% however, has taken some energy saving measures. On Friday approved the reduction of the maximum speed on motorways to 110 kilometers per hour, which will save 1,560 million per annum at the current price of a barrel, according to the Ministry of Industry.

The uncertainty surrounding the Spanish economy in recent years, in short, has joined a new ghost. "And investments are delayed by it," says Ontiveros. Is the case with the company of electrical and lighting Simon, who has decided to suspend the implementation of a new company in Algeria.

"It would be suicidal for any company embarking on making an investment there now. We must wait," said Xavier Torra, director general, who, however, defends the Maghreb strategy for Spanish companies. His take from the late 90's making in Moroccan territory, now has two factories in Tangier.

"Morocco can be the factory of Spain for a type of low-skilled industries. The cost of an unskilled worker is still very similar to that of China, and have much more geographical and cultural proximity," he reflects. There are some 500 Spanish companies from all sectors operating in the country that controls Mohamed VI.

And a hundred Spanish vessels benefit from the fisheries agreement of the European Union and Morocco, which expires on Sunday and whose renewal, according to sources close to the negotiations on Friday quoted by Efe, "solo section is pending." Xavier Torra believes the Moroccan situation, despite the pro-democracy demonstrations in several cities, "is far from what happened in Tunisia and Egypt." It seems unlikely that the two countries where dictators have fallen now going to break the major international trade agreements, says Olivia Orozco, program coordinator and business socioeconomic Arab House in Libya but the future is uncertain.

Tunisia has grown at over 3% since 2003, and the government planned to boost investment in highways, airports and a new port. There are food companies, cement (Portland Valderribas) and, above all, the tourism industry, such as Iberostar, Sol Melia and Barcelo. Rebound, the industry in Spain has taken advantage of the social shock of this country and of Egypt according to estimates from the Institute of Tourism of Spain (Turespaña) since the crisis began in mid-December have been diverted from 600,000 to 650,000 packages tour for the coming months, especially to the Canaries.

And in January ended with a foreign visitor growth of 4.7%, the highest since May 2008. Egypt faced some economic reforms in 2004 and has undergone a phase of economic boom in the last decade (with growth of 7% in 2007 and 2008 and 4,% in 2009). In this dynamic company participated as Cepsa, Gamesa and Union Fenosa.

The latter is involved in a liquefaction plant 60 kilometers from Suez which is operating normally, says the company. The rebellion in Libya has not bet on supply troubles in Spain. The North African country provided 12.7% of oil imported by Spain from November 2010 to November 2011, according to the latest Statistical Bulletin of Hydrocarbons.

To Olivia Orozco, "regardless of the percentage of oil or gas that we import every month in each country (which varies greatly depending on the month), annual figures show that no supplier accounting for more than 14% of our oil imports (see chart)" . Things change in natural gas. The gas first entered in Spain was from Libya in 1969, just the year Gaddafi took power in the country.

Today, when thinking in the supply of attention is focused on Algeria, source of 30% of Spanish consumption. The dependence of this country has decreased gradually (from the end of the octa-and early nineties was between 70% and 80%), but open conflict in the area go on alert. Antonio Llardén, president of Enagas, explains that since the riots started all gas shipments are received normally.

"If we had some disruption and underground storage supplies" in addition to the interconnections in Europe. To Llardén, "would be very good third connection to France" which is still under discussion. In addition, the Medgaz (involving, among others, the Algerian Sonatrach, Cepsa, Endesa and Iberdrola) will begin in April trade flows between Algeria and Spain.

Natural Gas called for calm. "The Government has contingency plans for extreme situations can occur, which have never come," said company sources, who are confident that "they will not activate those plans." In Bahrain, where the population also calls for changes, as Spanish companies operating Mapfre, Inditex or Porcelanosa.

After the slap he received Mohamed Bouazizi December 17, the status quo in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya has blown up. The citizen outcry in Bahrain, Algeria, Yemen and Morocco is in crescendo. Pallardó warns that "we now need to see in these movements that result, if eventually lead to democratic regimes." Or not.

The Spanish economy in the long term trust in the region. Jordi Crespi, Tarragona company, has the mind of a public contest to build 36 Moroccan artificial turf fields. -

No comments:

Post a Comment