Sunday, February 27, 2011

India expects growth of 9%, against a backdrop of hyperinflation

It is a figure to be the envy of western economies, yet it masks the reality much more mixed. India announced on Friday, February 25, that its economy could grow by over 9% next year while warning that inflation would remain a major source of concern. Buoyed by a rebound in agriculture and a "continued momentum" of manufacturing and services, growth should rise to 8.6% for the fiscal year ending March 31 to between 8.75 and % and 9.25% next year, according to the annual economic forecast, Government of India.

However, the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, said a few months ago that India would achieve double-digit growth in order to curb the poverty that affects hundreds of millions of people. The increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of the third economic power in Asia had averaged 9.5% between 2006 and 2008, before the global slowdown, which dampened growth to 6.7% on fiscal year 2008-2009.

India has seen an upturn last year with growth of 8%. These projections occur just days before the budget vote in Parliament on Monday, would see a budget that increased social spending in an environment where inflation is affecting more and more homes. The Prime Minister recently warned that it, driven by soaring food prices, was a "serious threat" to growth.

After seven interest rate hikes in less than a year, inflation remains at levels above 8%, while the rise in food prices stood at 11.49%, according to latest figures published Thursday.

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