Islamabad - "The retaliation will be there and will be heavy, but it will not happen right away: prepare for multiple operation takes time, not three years as in the case of the Twin Towers, only a few months, but because al Qaeda will avenge the death of Osama Bin Laden. " Siyed Saleem Shahzad, considered one of the leading experts on al Qaeda, Pakistani director of the department of the Asian Times, and ironically, the author of a forthcoming book of Inquiry entitled "Inside al Qaeda and the Taliban after Bin Laden" has no doubts: "The future holds hard times." Pakistan is shocked by the blitz of Americans killing of Bin Laden, if you expected? Already in March I wrote that Bin Laden was brought under control by the CIA, for the first time in years it seemed that they had a track, I knew it was active again and tried to reorganize the emergence of Afghanistan in Pakistan.
Why Bin Laden has taken refuge so close to a military installation? Above all, the Pakistani authorities could not know? They are not for the conspiracy but there are many questions to ask. First, the home of Bin Laden was the biggest and most fortified Abbottabad, anyone would be curious to know who lived there.
Second, the house is close to a military academy where the authorities were regularly visiting, and I'm sure the surrounding houses are regularly checked for security reasons. I'm not saying we knew that there was indeed Bin Laden, but something had to know. Many here think everything is a scenario created by Americans, it is certain that al Qaeda has not yet made a true comment.
Now what will happen to al Qaeda? Bin Laden was just a figure from Al Zawahiri ideological choice (the Egyptian number two of al Qaeda) which is the true mind of the organization. In the '90s had to form a new leadership of terror and they did it, then it was an ideological phase, now are entering into a policy.
Bin Laden, even without knowing exactly what they want closer to the Muslim world and add youth, are once again changing tactics. They know that a young Muslim, poor and frustrated easily indoctrinated. The Taliban were once only a separatist movement in some way are now part of global jihad that al Qaeda is creating.
There will be a successor? Al Qaeda is already led by a Shura, a council, there are a horizontal structure that works perfectly and it does not matter if one dies. Who thinks that now al Qaeda is finished, a big mistake. Westerners remain long in this area because al Qaeda wants to bring them to collapse, as happened with the Russians.
How will they react to the death of Bin Laden? Local increase attacks in the tribal areas, internationally, with simultaneous attacks as complex as Sept. 11, the countries that will hit? India to start a reaction against Pakistan, have already been intercepted by the Secret Service messages worrying where it comes to raising money.
Then in Southeast Asia. I do not think the United States, has become too complicated, but in Europe. No solution? There is always a solution. But it takes time. It takes patience. It takes responsibility. Three years ago I would have said that there was room for action. Al Qaeda has been able to expand everywhere, its agenda has become that of all the terrorist groups who want to be part of her.
It is so late. First thing is to stop the war in Afghanistan because it increases the militancy. The West should not respond to the attacks although it is difficult, but that's what they want: violent reactions to create chaos and then creep. This feed and thrive. The attack in Mumbai in 2008 for al Qaeda has failed because India did not react against Pakistan.
So there is no way to stop them? Were committed too many mistakes, when there was space for arguments has not been done, now would require a massive military operation here in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Somalia. Are not enough tens of thousands of troops to train local armies. And you may lose Libya, Palestine and Syria and I do not mind Egypt and Tunisia.
Barbara Schiavulli From the May 6, 2011
Why Bin Laden has taken refuge so close to a military installation? Above all, the Pakistani authorities could not know? They are not for the conspiracy but there are many questions to ask. First, the home of Bin Laden was the biggest and most fortified Abbottabad, anyone would be curious to know who lived there.
Second, the house is close to a military academy where the authorities were regularly visiting, and I'm sure the surrounding houses are regularly checked for security reasons. I'm not saying we knew that there was indeed Bin Laden, but something had to know. Many here think everything is a scenario created by Americans, it is certain that al Qaeda has not yet made a true comment.
Now what will happen to al Qaeda? Bin Laden was just a figure from Al Zawahiri ideological choice (the Egyptian number two of al Qaeda) which is the true mind of the organization. In the '90s had to form a new leadership of terror and they did it, then it was an ideological phase, now are entering into a policy.
Bin Laden, even without knowing exactly what they want closer to the Muslim world and add youth, are once again changing tactics. They know that a young Muslim, poor and frustrated easily indoctrinated. The Taliban were once only a separatist movement in some way are now part of global jihad that al Qaeda is creating.
There will be a successor? Al Qaeda is already led by a Shura, a council, there are a horizontal structure that works perfectly and it does not matter if one dies. Who thinks that now al Qaeda is finished, a big mistake. Westerners remain long in this area because al Qaeda wants to bring them to collapse, as happened with the Russians.
How will they react to the death of Bin Laden? Local increase attacks in the tribal areas, internationally, with simultaneous attacks as complex as Sept. 11, the countries that will hit? India to start a reaction against Pakistan, have already been intercepted by the Secret Service messages worrying where it comes to raising money.
Then in Southeast Asia. I do not think the United States, has become too complicated, but in Europe. No solution? There is always a solution. But it takes time. It takes patience. It takes responsibility. Three years ago I would have said that there was room for action. Al Qaeda has been able to expand everywhere, its agenda has become that of all the terrorist groups who want to be part of her.
It is so late. First thing is to stop the war in Afghanistan because it increases the militancy. The West should not respond to the attacks although it is difficult, but that's what they want: violent reactions to create chaos and then creep. This feed and thrive. The attack in Mumbai in 2008 for al Qaeda has failed because India did not react against Pakistan.
So there is no way to stop them? Were committed too many mistakes, when there was space for arguments has not been done, now would require a massive military operation here in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Somalia. Are not enough tens of thousands of troops to train local armies. And you may lose Libya, Palestine and Syria and I do not mind Egypt and Tunisia.
Barbara Schiavulli From the May 6, 2011
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