Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Syria, Middle East and the inaction Western

Faced with the escalation of repression in Syria, it poses the same question that has arisen for Egypt raised against Hosni Mubarak and Libya dispute between Gaddafi and the rebels. That is: to support the rebellion? Up to that point? When it comes to this question, in general, it is too late. It means that part of the population subjected to a regime has exceeded the threshold of fear: not enough snipers firing from rooftops, or the tanks sent to Dera, southern Syria, to stop the protest.

The number of victims rises exponentially: the eighteen killed Monday in Dera joins dozens of others and bring the budget, always provisional, well over a hundred victims. Some organizations for the protection of human rights, in addition, there would be at least 200 people disappeared, victims of summary arrests that followed the house to house searches were carried out by Syrian military forces in an attempt to stop the protests.

That is to trace the threshold of fear, the one that freezes the hum of dissent in the streets or houses, without the act of public protest. More than one in Western governments, would prefer that the Syrian repression in the end succeed. In fact, the protests have so far been relatively mild, with only a slight surge of dignity in the last days, when the White House has begun to talk of sanctions against the leaders of the government of President Bashar Assad.

The argument of those who wonder whether it is appropriate to support the rebels is always the same: we do not know what will or might come after Assad. It 's a reasonable argument, in foreign policy, but that leads directly to immobility. Indeed, after decades of unconditional support, Western governments have realized that the price was too high to Middle Eastern regimes, in terms of human rights violations tolerated and popular anger accumulated.

Failed with Mubarak, Ben Ali and Gaddafi, the argument back in the case of Syria. It is said, with a certain degree of reason, that the Syrian riots have not yet the size and thickness of those Maghreb. But it is said, above all, that if Syria could jump to collapse the entire Middle East.

As if the Middle East had not already entered a phase of profound geopolitical reorganization and especially geosociale. Above all, as if the existing order in the Middle East - at the bottom of the order most convenient for the West - was the only possible. The lesson, temporary and precarious, which so far can be drawn from the Arab riots of spring is that instead of Tunisians, Egyptians, Libyans, Syrians, Yemenis, and so they want first of all be free to choose how to be governed and by whom.

To do so, they are ready to pay, and are paying a high price in blood and suffering. Apart from this, as some governments, including the Italian, means continuing to think only in terms of 'chess'. In Risk, there are tanks, but there are no peoples. Enzo Mangini / 22 letter

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