Laurent Gbagbo begging savings, in extremis threw in a wing protected the Golf Hotel to escape the wrath of the crowd, Simone, his wife, dazed, torn clothing, strands of hair pulled out by hand vengeful ... The first images of the fall of former Ivorian president, in power between 2000 and 2010, attest to the hatred that has accumulated in a country in a state of latent civil war in a decade.
Resentment that has crystallized during the political crisis following the presidential election on 28 November and armed conflict ensued. The challenges facing the new president Alassane Ouattara is immense. The country, almost halved since 2002, is crossed by an ethno-regional divide between the Muslim north - including Ouattara was the standard bearer - and the predominantly Christian south, which Gbagbo came.
The reconciliation of the Ivorian people will be the main site of the new masters of the country. Justice or reconciliation? As soon as her rival captured and placed under UN protection, on Monday, Ouattara spoke to Ivorians, "Today, a blank page opens before us, and together we will write the history of reconciliation, "he said on television TCI.
Just like what had been established in South Africa after apartheid, he advocated the establishment of a "truth and reconciliation commission to shed light on all the massacres" committed by both parties. But the new strongman in Abidjan at the same time announced the launch of a "proceeding against Laurent Gbagbo, his wife and colleagues." Two perfectly contradictory announcements, as Michel Galy, a political scientist at the School of International Relations and an expert in Côte d'Ivoire.
"As part of a truth and reconciliation commission, the killers admit their mistakes, and victims are supposed to forgive them, without any judicial process. It is paradoxical to evoke the same time a lawsuit against the Gbagbo camp. No as we imagine badly Ouattara acknowledge its own army of perpetrating massacres.
" The desire to translate his rival Ouattara to justice does not plead for a quick reconciliation, especially if the investigation of abuses stop at the door of the winner. But the Republican Forces of Côte d'Ivoire (FRCI), loyal to Ouattara, are themselves accused of crimes. The Red Cross has reported the massacre of over 800 people in Duékoué in the west.
If she did not venture to apportion blame, the UN mission in Cote d'Ivoire said that "most" of the victims had been executed by "dozos" traditional hunters belonging to the North FRCI. What legitimacy for Ouattara? Winner in the polls but elected with the support of the international community, itself married to a French woman, Ouattara has also the immense task of establishing its credibility and bring Ivorians under his name.
The task will not be easy. He must convince half of Ivorians who voted for her rival. Long departed from the political game under the concept of "Ivoirité" and its supposed origins Burkinabe, Ouattara was perceived by southerners as the candidate from abroad. Côte d'Ivoire has approximately 27% of foreigners and Ivorians from the South are feeling increasingly cornered by the migration of tribes from the north that Ouattara is the hero, says Michel Galy, who lived several years in Abidjan .
Economist went through the IMF, close to Nicolas Sarkozy that he counts among his six best friends to believe his own statements to L'Express, "Ouattara was brought to power by three forces: his own, Licorne and UNOCI . Suffice to say that he has an obvious problem of legitimacy, says the researcher.
We can take the bet that the African street long criticized him the circumstances of his rise to power. "Currently, Ouattara can also rely on any institution." There is a real institutional gap: no Council constitutional [favor Gbagbo] before whom an oath, no government, no legislative election scheduled ...", he continued.
Two scenarios now open. Either the "candidate from abroad" manages to gain legitimacy Ivory Coast: it rises when a government of national unity, relaunch the economy and bring Gbagbo to justice. Either he fails to unite the country behind him, and soon the departure of the forces of Operation Unicorn, which Paris has already announced a gradual withdrawal, supporters of Gbagbo, the majority in the capital, reopened hostilities.
980 soldiers at the beginning of the crisis, the strength of Unicorn had been increased to 1700 since February. The Minister of Defence French, Gerard Longuet, said that he "intended to go below the starting position." The risk of civil war The outcome of this election crisis is far from marking the end of the simmering civil war that in the country for a decade.
With almost split the country between 2002 and 2007, the number of guns in circulation has proliferated. Ouattara has invited last Monday supporters of Gbagbo to disarm, the latter launching a similar appeal in a brief speech broadcast on television from his opponent. But the appeals of both leaders are likely to remain a dead letter in some areas.
The "nomadic warriors" (read From the nomadic war: seven approaches around the conflict in Côte d'Ivoire, Michel Galy), often from neighboring Liberia, feared looters turn their lending services to both camps, have sustained installed in the landscape of rural Ivorian. Monrovia has already expressed concern about returning home, but they might as well light a guerrilla-cons Ivorian territory to pursue their activities.
Another risk is the "relative autonomy" of forces loyal to Ouattara. The "dozos" pillage and live the beast since the coup of 2002. Ouattara and Soro they control them? Nothing is certain ... " One country to rebuild Rebuilding a country that runs through the most serious economic and social crisis of its history will be a major issue for months and years to come.
Côte d'Ivoire, power flagship of the West Africa until the 90s, remains the world's largest producer of cocoa. Coffee and cocoa account for 40% of export earnings and about 20% of its gross domestic product. But its economy was going through an unprecedented crisis, has received the coup de grace with the post-election crisis and trade sanctions from the international community.
In a gesture in favor of Alassane Ouattara, the Europeans have already lifted on Friday they had imposed sanctions to force Gbagbo to step down in the suffocating financially. They were the two major ports, Abidjan and San Pedro, and two strategic enterprises in the petroleum sector as well as cocoa and coffee.
Other similar measures should follow. France has about it the next day announced exceptional financial support of 400 million euros, including helping to meet the urgent needs of populations and the city of Abidjan. Ouattara will have to prove that it can bring the benefit of Côte d'Ivoire built a network of influences at the head of the Bank of the States of West Africa and the IMF, where he served as Deputy Director General.
But he faces an immediate challenge, the need to avoid a humanitarian crisis by providing new food safety and basic necessities to the people of Abidjan holed up at home during the last ten days of fighting. The battle was precipitated Abidjan the economic capital on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe, with quarters delivered to the anarchy and looting by armed groups.
In the rest of the country, the fighting had claimed nearly a million displaced. Good news for Africa? The fall of Gbagbo is "good news" for the ten African countries which will face elections in the coming months and the results must be respected, said Tuesday the head of French diplomacy, Alain Juppe, France Info .
Among the countries to organize a presidential election this year are particularly Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia and Zambia. An opinion not shared by all observers. Many international headlines and see the French intervention in a habit "neo-colonial" legacy of "French".
Michel Galy calls itself "treason" attitude of France and the UN: "One Both are out of the classical model of intervention. This is the first time the UN reverses an officer and bombed the symbols of power of a sovereign country. It is also the first time since independence that the French army intervenes in a capital of 4 million people.
" Spokesman for the government, France is "absolutely unassailable." "France has intervened in the framework of Security Council resolutions of the UN, at the request of its secretary general," insisted Baroin. But between Resolution 1975, which provides for the destruction of heavy weapons that threaten civilians, the bombing of Gbagbo's residence, "there is a gap," said Michel Galy.
Only the future that is uncertain, say if France and the UN have been well advised to play the ambiguity of their mandate to bring to power Ouattara. Seelow 
Resentment that has crystallized during the political crisis following the presidential election on 28 November and armed conflict ensued. The challenges facing the new president Alassane Ouattara is immense. The country, almost halved since 2002, is crossed by an ethno-regional divide between the Muslim north - including Ouattara was the standard bearer - and the predominantly Christian south, which Gbagbo came.
The reconciliation of the Ivorian people will be the main site of the new masters of the country. Justice or reconciliation? As soon as her rival captured and placed under UN protection, on Monday, Ouattara spoke to Ivorians, "Today, a blank page opens before us, and together we will write the history of reconciliation, "he said on television TCI.
Just like what had been established in South Africa after apartheid, he advocated the establishment of a "truth and reconciliation commission to shed light on all the massacres" committed by both parties. But the new strongman in Abidjan at the same time announced the launch of a "proceeding against Laurent Gbagbo, his wife and colleagues." Two perfectly contradictory announcements, as Michel Galy, a political scientist at the School of International Relations and an expert in Côte d'Ivoire.
"As part of a truth and reconciliation commission, the killers admit their mistakes, and victims are supposed to forgive them, without any judicial process. It is paradoxical to evoke the same time a lawsuit against the Gbagbo camp. No as we imagine badly Ouattara acknowledge its own army of perpetrating massacres.
" The desire to translate his rival Ouattara to justice does not plead for a quick reconciliation, especially if the investigation of abuses stop at the door of the winner. But the Republican Forces of Côte d'Ivoire (FRCI), loyal to Ouattara, are themselves accused of crimes. The Red Cross has reported the massacre of over 800 people in Duékoué in the west.
If she did not venture to apportion blame, the UN mission in Cote d'Ivoire said that "most" of the victims had been executed by "dozos" traditional hunters belonging to the North FRCI. What legitimacy for Ouattara? Winner in the polls but elected with the support of the international community, itself married to a French woman, Ouattara has also the immense task of establishing its credibility and bring Ivorians under his name.
The task will not be easy. He must convince half of Ivorians who voted for her rival. Long departed from the political game under the concept of "Ivoirité" and its supposed origins Burkinabe, Ouattara was perceived by southerners as the candidate from abroad. Côte d'Ivoire has approximately 27% of foreigners and Ivorians from the South are feeling increasingly cornered by the migration of tribes from the north that Ouattara is the hero, says Michel Galy, who lived several years in Abidjan .
Economist went through the IMF, close to Nicolas Sarkozy that he counts among his six best friends to believe his own statements to L'Express, "Ouattara was brought to power by three forces: his own, Licorne and UNOCI . Suffice to say that he has an obvious problem of legitimacy, says the researcher.
We can take the bet that the African street long criticized him the circumstances of his rise to power. "Currently, Ouattara can also rely on any institution." There is a real institutional gap: no Council constitutional [favor Gbagbo] before whom an oath, no government, no legislative election scheduled ...", he continued.
Two scenarios now open. Either the "candidate from abroad" manages to gain legitimacy Ivory Coast: it rises when a government of national unity, relaunch the economy and bring Gbagbo to justice. Either he fails to unite the country behind him, and soon the departure of the forces of Operation Unicorn, which Paris has already announced a gradual withdrawal, supporters of Gbagbo, the majority in the capital, reopened hostilities.
980 soldiers at the beginning of the crisis, the strength of Unicorn had been increased to 1700 since February. The Minister of Defence French, Gerard Longuet, said that he "intended to go below the starting position." The risk of civil war The outcome of this election crisis is far from marking the end of the simmering civil war that in the country for a decade.
With almost split the country between 2002 and 2007, the number of guns in circulation has proliferated. Ouattara has invited last Monday supporters of Gbagbo to disarm, the latter launching a similar appeal in a brief speech broadcast on television from his opponent. But the appeals of both leaders are likely to remain a dead letter in some areas.
The "nomadic warriors" (read From the nomadic war: seven approaches around the conflict in Côte d'Ivoire, Michel Galy), often from neighboring Liberia, feared looters turn their lending services to both camps, have sustained installed in the landscape of rural Ivorian. Monrovia has already expressed concern about returning home, but they might as well light a guerrilla-cons Ivorian territory to pursue their activities.
Another risk is the "relative autonomy" of forces loyal to Ouattara. The "dozos" pillage and live the beast since the coup of 2002. Ouattara and Soro they control them? Nothing is certain ... " One country to rebuild Rebuilding a country that runs through the most serious economic and social crisis of its history will be a major issue for months and years to come.
Côte d'Ivoire, power flagship of the West Africa until the 90s, remains the world's largest producer of cocoa. Coffee and cocoa account for 40% of export earnings and about 20% of its gross domestic product. But its economy was going through an unprecedented crisis, has received the coup de grace with the post-election crisis and trade sanctions from the international community.
In a gesture in favor of Alassane Ouattara, the Europeans have already lifted on Friday they had imposed sanctions to force Gbagbo to step down in the suffocating financially. They were the two major ports, Abidjan and San Pedro, and two strategic enterprises in the petroleum sector as well as cocoa and coffee.
Other similar measures should follow. France has about it the next day announced exceptional financial support of 400 million euros, including helping to meet the urgent needs of populations and the city of Abidjan. Ouattara will have to prove that it can bring the benefit of Côte d'Ivoire built a network of influences at the head of the Bank of the States of West Africa and the IMF, where he served as Deputy Director General.
But he faces an immediate challenge, the need to avoid a humanitarian crisis by providing new food safety and basic necessities to the people of Abidjan holed up at home during the last ten days of fighting. The battle was precipitated Abidjan the economic capital on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe, with quarters delivered to the anarchy and looting by armed groups.
In the rest of the country, the fighting had claimed nearly a million displaced. Good news for Africa? The fall of Gbagbo is "good news" for the ten African countries which will face elections in the coming months and the results must be respected, said Tuesday the head of French diplomacy, Alain Juppe, France Info .
Among the countries to organize a presidential election this year are particularly Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia and Zambia. An opinion not shared by all observers. Many international headlines and see the French intervention in a habit "neo-colonial" legacy of "French".
Michel Galy calls itself "treason" attitude of France and the UN: "One Both are out of the classical model of intervention. This is the first time the UN reverses an officer and bombed the symbols of power of a sovereign country. It is also the first time since independence that the French army intervenes in a capital of 4 million people.
" Spokesman for the government, France is "absolutely unassailable." "France has intervened in the framework of Security Council resolutions of the UN, at the request of its secretary general," insisted Baroin. But between Resolution 1975, which provides for the destruction of heavy weapons that threaten civilians, the bombing of Gbagbo's residence, "there is a gap," said Michel Galy.
Only the future that is uncertain, say if France and the UN have been well advised to play the ambiguity of their mandate to bring to power Ouattara. Seelow
- "Statement by the President on Cote d'Ivoire" and related posts (12/04/2011)
- 'Victory' - Obama lauds Gbagbo's removal (12/04/2011)
- Cote d' Ivoire: ECOWAS expresses concerns over fate of Gbagbo (13/04/2011)
- Relative calm witnessed in Abidjan - Xinhua (12/04/2011)
- Cote D'Ivoire: Another UN Success (12/04/2011)
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