Wednesday, April 13, 2011

Côte d'Ivoire: "The arrest of Laurent Gbagbo does not necessarily mean the end of the conflict"

By late morning on Monday, Mr. Gbagbo and his entourage had attempted a release of their residence was on fire, hit by a missile French the previous night. The supporters of Laurent Gbagbo had responded and put the pro-Ouattara assailants fled. Laurent Gbagbo had then tried to flee through a star beside the lagoon.

He seems to have been deterred by the French helicopter. Licorne, 1700 men strong, acted under a mandate from the Security Council UN voted unanimously. This unanimity including three African countries that currently sit. This mandate implies the protection of civilians against the firing with heavy weapons.

One can argue about whether that mandate has been exceeded or not. But part of the answer is that a huge arsenal of heavy weapons stored in the perimeter of the residence of Laurent Gbagbo went on, these days, to be supplied by ship. French diplomats believe that the situation had deteriorated to this point, they had no choice but to hasten the fall of Laurent Gbagbo.

Doing nothing would have plunged the country into civil war. Formally, the French Licorne forces have not acted in the interests of Paris but under a warrant issued in New York, by the Security Council of UN. The presence of French troops to Abidjan, however, is not a chance. It is obviously linked to the colonial past of France.

But the intervention of Unicorn in 2011, has absolutely not the same basis as that of French soldiers in 2004. These were the soldiers of the battalion of marines based in Abidjan, which had fired on the crowd of "young patriots" embarked on anti-French demonstrations. The deadly bombing of the Ivorian air force in the French camp in Bouake had led France to destroy the entire Ivorian air force in retaliation and triggered events "patriotic".

The decision by Nicolas Sarkozy to intervene directly, even under a clear UN mandate, however, formally contradicted his earlier speeches in which he said that no French soldier would take only about an African and former colonial power does was not best placed to resolve political differences in these ancient possessions.

It's a good question given the debt that the new president has contracted in respect of the French army. In 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy announced the renegotiation of all the military agreements between France to African countries. The defense agreement of 1961 between France and Ivory Coast is the only one that has absolutely no renegotiation started.

As France wishes in advance, the return of stability in Abidjan. The French discourse suggests that Paris does not want to "burn" more in Côte d'Ivoire and hopes eventually the departure of its soldiers. The position adopted by Alassane Ouattara on this issue reflect the content of news he wants to maintain relations with France.

The arrest of Laurent Gbagbo does not necessarily mean the end of the conflict, given the large number of weapons that was distributed to its supporters in recent days. But the return to civil peace is obviously desired by much of the population, even beyond the violence, suffer from insecurity, hunger and thirst, because in some neighborhoods of Abidjan, water has long been cut off.

The return to peace will also depend on the ability of the new president to initiate a process of justice for perpetrators of violence, including in his own camp. The announcement of the creation of a commission of truth and reconciliation, as did those who worked in South Africa and Morocco, is a first step in this direction.

This is obviously a major challenge that awaits Côte d'Ivoire if it wants to regain power beacon of West Africa it was until the 1990s. It is too early to get a conviction on this. But the fact that Mr. Ouattara has succeeded in getting his troops excited to spare the life of Laurent Gbagbo is a positive sign.

Many observers also note that the presentation of the country as irretrievably broken between a Muslim north and Christian south is far from corresponding to reality, much more mixed. Another major challenge is the reconstruction of a truly national army with the merger of the forces that are killing each other.

The merger, which was to be performed for several years, has not been. In his televised speech on 7 April, Mr. Ouattara has promised that "light would be made on all the massacres and crimes." He made no explicit reference to the massacre of Duekoue, the organizations of human rights attributed largely to his camp.

A charge that is particularly embarrassing for him because the soldiers accused of abuses, were placed under the high command of Guillaume Soro, who is her prime minister. The intention of the new Ivorian authorities seems to be quickly transferred Laurent and Simone Gbagbo in the north where they have few supporters where their security could be better ensured.

In a second step, the idea is to find another African country to host them. It could be, for example, Angola, Nigeria or South Africa. The Surrender of Laurent Gbagbo before the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, competent to try war crimes, crimes against humanity, is not an immediate prospect.

Would require the prosecutor of that court or another country that Cote d'Ivoire's request to open an investigation, that the alleged facts that would fall within the jurisdiction of the Court and an arrest warrant is issued. Côte d'Ivoire, itself, is not a party to the Rome Statute of 1998 which established the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court.

Guillaume Soro, former leader of the rebellion in the north, former Prime Minister Laurent Gbagbo, and current Prime Minister Ouattara, probably took the ascendancy again as head of military operations that led to the reconquest of entire Ivorian territory. Military leader known for his impulsiveness, he could indeed win against the highly polished Alassane Ouattara.

Just because we have not. French official sources, it is unclear where the four people abducted Monday, April 4, at the Novotel Hotel Abidjan. The concern is accentuated by the fact that no claim has been made. These four persons were abducted by men in uniform. He is the director of the Novotel, a French entrepreneur and two of its African employees.

The latter seems to have been part of public figures who have called for boycotting the tax Laurent Gbagbo. Chat moderated by Caroline Monnot

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