Friday, March 4, 2011

The west wind blows on the revolt, but the fall of Saddam strengthened Iran

It does not happen often, so it's rare that the interests of the United States and western countries in general, coincide with the principles they profess. Events Libyan create this perfect harmony, which spurs us to intervene in the country that starts a civil war. If it is natural to emphasize the duty imposed by the belief, at the base of liberal societies, then it becomes more difficult to show how we can move to concrete action.

Action designed to prevent the bloodshed and stabilize a region strategically important for its mineral wealth. An action that interferes in an Arab world in the grip of an explosion of claims, including the last one is not on individual freedoms. Where is the pride of living at the time to decide their own destiny, so strong refusal to cede that right to others, be they indigenous tyrants disguised as liberators, or foreign aid workers, innocent heirs of the old imperialism.

Even if America now has a president from among its names also Hussein, and among his relatives a few Muslims. And in June, two years ago, the University of Cairo, the president gave a strong message to the Arab world. Perhaps a message that has encouraged the uprising against Saddam. Although humanitarian mission on the ground requires a military commitment, albeit measured, but in fact to support a population in the fight against the old, unreliable Gaddafi.

It is an intervention in Arab land. An Arab presence is therefore essential. To remove atavistic prejudices or unfounded suspicions. Would be essential in all cases, cooperation with the Arab League, which has just expelled Colonel Gaddafi at the same time condemned foreign intervention.

The Gulf War, that of '91, against Saddam Hussein had invaded Kuwait, an Arab land, the armies of various departments participated, albeit symbolically, from the Saudi Egyptian than Moroccan. Westerners, Americans and British were engaged instead of just the unpopular Iraq's disastrous venture in 2003.

It seemed like a crusade. Gaddafi had already long been discredited in the eyes of other Arab capitals. Not by chance to express solidarity in these days were distant leader Daniel Ortega from Nicaragua, Cuba from Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez from Venezuela. The personal fate of the Libyan colonel not care about anyone officially or in the Maghreb or in the Mashreq, the Arab countries of East and West.

But the events of Libyan dictator and to frighten the rulers politically survived the revolutionary wave that still invests, or touches, the lands inhabited by three hundred million Arabs in the Red Sea and the Atlantic. The sounds of the civil war in Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, as a nightmare reach the houses of the royal Saud, the Khalifa, the Hashemite, of the Alawi, the various dynasties that ruled from Rabat to Riyadh.

With the earthquake in progress, no one will be able to know how the political landscape after the last shock. And what Saddam will survive politically. Not all, despite the aversion to Gaddafi, are willing to participate with enthusiasm in any expedition, intended to supply the wind of revolt.

Because it will contribute to the fall of another dictator. Egypt and Tunisia are still in turmoil. Effort to move forward with political models with democratic ambitions but still inaccurate. The newly appointed prime ministers have had to resign, Cairo and Tunis, under the pressure of public opinion soon emerged that call for new faces.

Democracy can take root in the streets, but asks for time to take root and take shape. Tunisian and Egyptian friends, a few weeks only by the removal of their dictator, complaining about the slowness with which they form a new political system, remember that democracy has arrived in some European countries after a war of five years and millions of deaths.

The reaction was immediate. From them, they say, everything will happen quickly, as well as the insurgency has been quick to give results. In the era of the Web all in a hurry, and their was precisely the revolution of the web. The Tunisian and Egyptian friends forget that the computer is a tool.

It is only half. The Americans do not make too many illusions. The riots announce democracies, are a historical event, and the United States to have favorites, but the political changes that lead to those addressed are full of pitfalls. Middle East experts see the long arm of Iran's theocratic trying to take root, especially in neighboring Saudi Arabia.

And 'as if it were an ongoing challenge between Tehran and Riyadh. On the one hand Saudi Arabia, guardian of holy sites, Mecca and Medina, to even a bulwark of Islam and Arab Sunni, the other, the Islamic Republic founded by Ayatollah Khomeini, Persian and Shiite. Two strongholds of rival fundamentalisms.

The wind of the protest even reached Iran, to the point of pushing the regime to put subkey opposition leaders, former Prime Minister Hussein Moussavi and former Speaker of Parliament, Mehdi Karroubi. But the Islamic Republic has increased its penetration in countries surrounding Saudi Arabia.

In Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh against demonstrations continue, despite the concessions made dall'inamovibile Saddam. More insidious still is the crisis in Oman, and especially in Bahrain, where the Shiite majority to be recognized as such by the Sunni monarchy (of the al-Khalifa). It threatens to drag in the minority Shiite protests in Saudi Arabia.

A minority of considerable importance because it populates the oil regions. In addition, Bahrain is home to the staff of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, which is entrusted with the supervision of the Gulf, and Iran, and that in these days has sent two units in the Mediterranean, so that they remain off the coast of Libya.

Of how strong the malaise in the Kingdom of Saud, the great historical ally of the United States since the days of FD Roosevelt, is proved by the hasty return, 23 February, King Abdullah. The old monarch, 87, was away for three months. Had been operated in New York and spent a convalescence in Morocco, when he returned home to cool the impatience of his subjects with a shower of gold.

Thirty-six billion dollars in donations, an increase of 15 percent of the salaries of officials, awards for students and unemployed, and 400 billion dollars over the next four years to renovate the school and university system. The Saudi monarchy known serious problems with regard to the succession.

The crown passed from brother to brother or brother-brother, all children (37) of Ibn Saud, the founder of the dynasty. Pending accedes to the throne fifty grandchildren, to King Abdullah to succeed the Sultan, who is 83 years old and apparently suffering from Alzheimer's disease. For a kingdom that lives hard times is not ideal.

Sultan was himself recovering in Morocco, when in the fall is due back in Riyadh, to replace Abdullah that started in New York to undergo surgery. According to Mrs Leverett, Flynt and Hillary, both former members of the National Security Council, Iran is gaining influence that Saudi Arabia has lost in the region.

The military expeditions of President Bush Jr., have strongly contributed to strengthen Iran, which is the worst enemy of the United States. Speaking in Afghanistan in 2001, in vain to chase the leaders of Al Qaeda, was behind the Twin Towers, Bush Jr. has defeated the Taliban, the fundamentalist Sunnis who were implacable enemies of the Iranian people, considered heretical Shiites.

Then in 2003, Bush Jr. always has removed Saddam Hussein, Iran's arch-opponent Khomeini. The recognition of the Shiite majority in Iraq, thanks to fair elections took place by the Americans, has also created a Shiite government in Baghdad which has good relations with Iran inevitable. So the United States have promoted their own worst enemy, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have become destabilized, their best Arab ally.

Now Saudi Arabia could in turn be affected by the "springtime of peoples", which flourished in the Middle East, but for the Kingdom of Saud, far from being an example of democracy, there would be a good season. Nor would, in the Saudi case, Obama for America, which would risk losing a devoted ally.

Libya is geographically distant, but terribly close as ongoing tragedy that could repeat itself.

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