The city of Abbottabad, 150 km north of the Pakistani capital Islamabad, was the place chosen by Osama bin Laden for his last refuge. Its fortified residence was less than a mile Pakistani military academy, where it is forming an army of officers involved, among other things, in the fight against Al Qaeda galaxy.
It 'a fact that immediately raises the question of whether, and how, the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI knew of the presence of Bin Laden. For some time, especially by the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai came to periodic accusations that Pakistan has always denied that, however Bin Laden could be on its own soil.
The denial came in the worst way for the leaders of Pakistan, at a time, however, in which relations with the United States - especially strong supporter of the army - are at a stage of mutual distrust. As emphasized political analyst Imtiaz Gul, author of several books on Pakistan, the news that Bin Laden was indeed in Pakistan "was a shock for many Pakistanis.
Many people believed he was already dead. And the fact that his retreat was so close to the military academy raises suspicions that some of the Pakistani intelligence would know. " According to Gul, the ISI was probably involved in the operation last night, or at least was aware, even if they knew the ultimate goal.
From what emerges on the international news agencies, however, the United States acted alone. No other country would have been informed of the operation and, as a U.S. administration official said the pan-Arab network al Jazeera, "very few people in the administration knew about it." It is a strange thing, this.
This kind of operation can only be surrounded by a high level of secrecy. It is not excluded, however, that the U.S. does not wish to reveal the contributions of Pakistan and to avoid an escalation of attacks against the Pakistani government and local police forces, and to highlight its ability to strike anywhere, even without the knowledge of governments that are supposed to be allies.
The truth, at least in part, will emerge in the coming days or weeks ahead. Certainly, though, even now, relations between the U.S. and Pakistan could be an adjustment. We must observe any new agreements between the two countries to understand, ex post, if somehow the ISI - or its segments - took part in the operation yesterday or not.
It is not excluded, however, that in the same ISI as in the Pakistani armed forces, there are at least two different currents, one more conducive to helping the U.S. and less ready to provide the support that Washington calls and in the fight against Taliban guerrillas in Afghanistan and border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan and in the fight against what remains of al-Qaeda.
On this ground, however, there are the questions more difficult. Robert Fisk, Middle East correspondent of the British newspaper The Independent, pointed out that "Osama Bin Laden was the founder of al Qaeda, but feel that it was still in command is foolish, since he spent a good part of his life running away U.S.
special forces. " The Judgement of Fisk is reflected in the words of Jason Burke, author of one of the best books on the Al Qaeda network, "Al Qaeda. The True Story "(2003). Reached in New Delhi, where he is a correspondent for the British newspaper The Guardian, Burke said: "The most likely scenario is a continuation of low-intensity activities concentrated at the periphery of the Muslim world, according to local conditions.
From there could emerge a new leader. Bin Laden said back in 2001 my life does not matter. The awakening has begun. It will take some years to see if he was right. " According to Burke, also the historic summit of al Qaeda is very divided, "Beyond the historic core of the organization, formed by bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri and some of their followers in Pakistan, there are new leaders who may emerge.
Al-Zawahiri does not have the charisma of bin Laden, is strong in terms of ideological and organizational, but admitted he is still alive as it seems, does not have the political capacity to take the place of bin Laden. Some other figures, such as Yahya al-Libi, who has about 45 years, may try to present itself as a leader throughout the network, but in recent years no new figure is able to overcome the marginalization of al Qaeda from the scene.
In addition, the cracks have grown between different nations, and the death of Bin Laden could be a prelude to new and deeper divisions. " It is unclear whether in addition to bin Laden in yesterday's raid were killed or injured other members of the top of the organization, but remember that beyond the historic core of al Qaeda, most of the international jihadist operations related to the galaxy occurred in recent years has been conducted by groups using the "mark" Al-Qaeda also had links with the historic summit very unstable.
It is an evolution that Burke and other experts have stressed for some time and indeed Burke adds: "Decentralization was part of the strategy of bin Laden and most of the joints regional al Qaeda were largely independent of the historical leadership. Which reminds us that al Qaeda was just one of many radical groups that animate the scene of Sunni.
The death of Bin Laden will probably change some elements of the landscape of militant jihad, however, will not necessarily have an immediate impact on individual groups, in addition to the deterrent effect of the fact that even after more than ten years, there will still be taken and killed.
" Similarly, Burke continues, "the impact of the actions of bin Laden depended in part by the reactions of its objectives, the United States first. From this point of view will be interesting to see whether and how to change the strategy of the White House. In addition, some of the root causes that led to the birth of jihadist movements are sources of long term and still remain powerful factors that lead to armed militancy.
Factors that largely have not been addressed in a structural way. " For Burke, however, the main question is what effect the death of Bin Laden on what he called the "jihadi subculture." "The biggest success of Bin Laden - said Burke - was able to make known all over the world to his particular interpretation of radical Islamism.
There were other currents of thought and militant strategy around the world in the late nineties, but twenty years of 'propaganda based on facts' meant that one of Bin Laden became dominant, to the emergence of a culture of jihad. Al Qaeda in many respects, has become a social movement.
Bin Laden's death means the removal of an icon and this is certainly important. " Certainly it is important for American citizens. More than a real and immediate risk of new attacks, that icon was for them a demonstration of the power limits of its intelligence and security apparatus. Until yesterday.
Enzo Mangini - Letter 22 
It 'a fact that immediately raises the question of whether, and how, the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI knew of the presence of Bin Laden. For some time, especially by the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai came to periodic accusations that Pakistan has always denied that, however Bin Laden could be on its own soil.
The denial came in the worst way for the leaders of Pakistan, at a time, however, in which relations with the United States - especially strong supporter of the army - are at a stage of mutual distrust. As emphasized political analyst Imtiaz Gul, author of several books on Pakistan, the news that Bin Laden was indeed in Pakistan "was a shock for many Pakistanis.
Many people believed he was already dead. And the fact that his retreat was so close to the military academy raises suspicions that some of the Pakistani intelligence would know. " According to Gul, the ISI was probably involved in the operation last night, or at least was aware, even if they knew the ultimate goal.
From what emerges on the international news agencies, however, the United States acted alone. No other country would have been informed of the operation and, as a U.S. administration official said the pan-Arab network al Jazeera, "very few people in the administration knew about it." It is a strange thing, this.
This kind of operation can only be surrounded by a high level of secrecy. It is not excluded, however, that the U.S. does not wish to reveal the contributions of Pakistan and to avoid an escalation of attacks against the Pakistani government and local police forces, and to highlight its ability to strike anywhere, even without the knowledge of governments that are supposed to be allies.
The truth, at least in part, will emerge in the coming days or weeks ahead. Certainly, though, even now, relations between the U.S. and Pakistan could be an adjustment. We must observe any new agreements between the two countries to understand, ex post, if somehow the ISI - or its segments - took part in the operation yesterday or not.
It is not excluded, however, that in the same ISI as in the Pakistani armed forces, there are at least two different currents, one more conducive to helping the U.S. and less ready to provide the support that Washington calls and in the fight against Taliban guerrillas in Afghanistan and border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan and in the fight against what remains of al-Qaeda.
On this ground, however, there are the questions more difficult. Robert Fisk, Middle East correspondent of the British newspaper The Independent, pointed out that "Osama Bin Laden was the founder of al Qaeda, but feel that it was still in command is foolish, since he spent a good part of his life running away U.S.
special forces. " The Judgement of Fisk is reflected in the words of Jason Burke, author of one of the best books on the Al Qaeda network, "Al Qaeda. The True Story "(2003). Reached in New Delhi, where he is a correspondent for the British newspaper The Guardian, Burke said: "The most likely scenario is a continuation of low-intensity activities concentrated at the periphery of the Muslim world, according to local conditions.
From there could emerge a new leader. Bin Laden said back in 2001 my life does not matter. The awakening has begun. It will take some years to see if he was right. " According to Burke, also the historic summit of al Qaeda is very divided, "Beyond the historic core of the organization, formed by bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri and some of their followers in Pakistan, there are new leaders who may emerge.
Al-Zawahiri does not have the charisma of bin Laden, is strong in terms of ideological and organizational, but admitted he is still alive as it seems, does not have the political capacity to take the place of bin Laden. Some other figures, such as Yahya al-Libi, who has about 45 years, may try to present itself as a leader throughout the network, but in recent years no new figure is able to overcome the marginalization of al Qaeda from the scene.
In addition, the cracks have grown between different nations, and the death of Bin Laden could be a prelude to new and deeper divisions. " It is unclear whether in addition to bin Laden in yesterday's raid were killed or injured other members of the top of the organization, but remember that beyond the historic core of al Qaeda, most of the international jihadist operations related to the galaxy occurred in recent years has been conducted by groups using the "mark" Al-Qaeda also had links with the historic summit very unstable.
It is an evolution that Burke and other experts have stressed for some time and indeed Burke adds: "Decentralization was part of the strategy of bin Laden and most of the joints regional al Qaeda were largely independent of the historical leadership. Which reminds us that al Qaeda was just one of many radical groups that animate the scene of Sunni.
The death of Bin Laden will probably change some elements of the landscape of militant jihad, however, will not necessarily have an immediate impact on individual groups, in addition to the deterrent effect of the fact that even after more than ten years, there will still be taken and killed.
" Similarly, Burke continues, "the impact of the actions of bin Laden depended in part by the reactions of its objectives, the United States first. From this point of view will be interesting to see whether and how to change the strategy of the White House. In addition, some of the root causes that led to the birth of jihadist movements are sources of long term and still remain powerful factors that lead to armed militancy.
Factors that largely have not been addressed in a structural way. " For Burke, however, the main question is what effect the death of Bin Laden on what he called the "jihadi subculture." "The biggest success of Bin Laden - said Burke - was able to make known all over the world to his particular interpretation of radical Islamism.
There were other currents of thought and militant strategy around the world in the late nineties, but twenty years of 'propaganda based on facts' meant that one of Bin Laden became dominant, to the emergence of a culture of jihad. Al Qaeda in many respects, has become a social movement.
Bin Laden's death means the removal of an icon and this is certainly important. " Certainly it is important for American citizens. More than a real and immediate risk of new attacks, that icon was for them a demonstration of the power limits of its intelligence and security apparatus. Until yesterday.
Enzo Mangini - Letter 22
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