Saturday, April 23, 2011

In Syria, the Assad clan power of the test street

Beirut Correspondent - Despite the lifting of emergency rule, confirmed by a decree of President Bashar Al-Assad, Thursday, April 21, new calls to point to a protest Friday at high voltage in Syria. The malcontents emphasize their "lack of confidence" and "skepticism." Orders are signed "but the security services do not apply the law," complained one cyberactivist.

Others believe that within the regime, the president does not have a free hand. "We wonder who makes the decisions in this country," said another activist. Upon coming to power of Bashar al-Assad in July 2000, many have expressed doubts about the competence of this new president, so young (he was then 34 years) and inexperienced to hold a regime in which its accession was not unanimous.

Over ten years later, however, seems to have sat rais his authority, to the point that analysts initially believed he would be spared the wave of Arab revolts. Unlike his counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt, Assad has indeed an aura of zaïm, Arab leader, based on its positions openly anti-Israeli and American criticism.

To this is added the ubiquitous popularity of a powerful instrument of coercion and intelligence. From the beginning of February, however, the proliferation of contradictory statements has revived the impression of a regime beset by dissension and rivalries rumors swirling the Assad clan.

"These divisions are real, says a Syrian businessman who has repeatedly met the rais. The president and his wife, Asma, are reformers, but they are not alone to decide. Bashar Al-Assad is torn between the interests of his family, in which his brother, sister and uncles have considerable influence, and the duty he owed to his country.

" Within the sibling Assad, ties have often been problematic. The eldest, Bouchra is deemed influential and authoritative. His relations with Asma, wife of the president, whom she accused of "excessive media presence" are conflicting. Her husband, Assef Shawkat, has long been hated by Maher, the youngest of the siblings, so that the latter was wounded in the stomach with a pistol in 1999, right in the presidential palace.

Against the advice of his brother, Bashar has yet made him a formidable ally in giving him the intelligence of the army. In late 2008, Shawkat falls from grace, creating all sorts of speculation about coup attempts, before retrieving the favors of the president. Maher Al-Assad has meanwhile established itself in the clan, providing support to the President as necessary and cumbersome.

Real "boss" of the army, he lobbied all records - including foreign affairs - even more adamant that, unlike his brother, he is not in the forefront. Embodying the eyes of protesters, the brutality of the regime, the Syrians say angry and ready for anything. "These disputes stem from the lack of leadership, says a political scientist at Damascus.

The authority has no long-term strategic vision. This explains the stupidity of his reaction to Deraa," where protests were triggered, March 15 by the arrest of children, imprisoned and tortured for writing graffiti against the regime. The operating rules of the family in power are opaque.

Only the iron fist of Hafez Al-Assad, father of current president, had enabled him to subdue the rival ambitions of his brothers, Rifaat al-Assad joined in dissent in late 1983. The fighting that ensued had then had failed to shatter the unity of the ruling Alawite minority, whose cohesion and support are the backbone of the regime.

From Spain, where he now lives in exile, Rifaat al-Assad, but also his son, Sumar and Ribal, increasing returns and organize via their television channel ANN TV, a constant attack against the scion of Hafez Damascus. If they still have influence in Syria is questionable, there are other clan members left behind, may act as free electrons.

This is the case Mundher and Fawwaz Al-Assad, cousin of the president, who act militia leaders in the Alawite mountains, home of the family, to the west. They were not handed over in 2005, but their activities have never stopped completely. "The family gives them flexibility, says an expert.

And the current period of unrest is conducive to their return to grace." The inhabitants of the cities of Latakia and Baniyas accuse them of having stirred up trouble between Sunni and Alawite faith, in the early events by sending an SMS warning, some, "that the Alawite descended from their mountains to s' Sunnis attack "and others," the Sunnis were in the streets to massacre the Alawite.

Residents also accuse their militias - the Chabih - have terrorized by launching deadly raids in their city. Besides Assad, Makhlouf family is also very powerful. The alliance between these two families, marriage date between Alawite Hafez al-Assad and Makhlouf Anisa. During the fratricidal struggle between Rifaat to Hafez Makhlouf argued the latter.

They have won a fortune and influential positions. Rami Makhlouf, a wealthy businessman, personifies the corruption denounced by protesters. It is nicknamed the "king of Syria, when his cousin, Bashar Al-Assad, is only the president. His brother Hafez Makhlouf is the all-powerful boss of the security services in Damascus.

"The president did not intend to occupy the place that is hers, a political scientist Syrian analysis. One does not become a dictator. His father had to work, intrigue, remove the power to conquer and consolidate, while Bashar belongs to this generation of young heirs, as Mohammed VI in Morocco or Jordan Abdullah II, to whom the authority has expired without them really understand how it works.

" Brought to power by a system created by his father but he does not know, Bashar al-Assad appears weakened, leaving fear that a tightening of the ranks is vital to the survival of the Assad family, could take place around characters become more powerful and will do everything to safeguard their interests.

Cécile Hennion Article published in the edition of 23.04.11

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