Monday, March 28, 2011

Cracks in Sarkozy's party after the defeat in the cantonal elections

The defeat of Nicolas Sarkozy and his party, the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) in the second round of cantonal elections, held yesterday, with an abstention rate of 55%, start making a dent in their own ranks. A criticism of some centrist allies for what they consider a drift derechizante, joins the government's own spokesman, François Baroin.

This morning, Baroin, a radio station, has said he would not agree to the debate on Islam and secularism that the UMP is organizing the April 5 and, according to the opposition, seeks only to stigmatize Muslims. Sarkozy, hours later, clarified that the controversial debate will be held liable to Baroin to announce later on to correct their statements.

All this is but a symptom that something is in the formation of Sarkozy, a prisoner of its own contradictions: if far to the right heel and turn immigration into one of its main constituencies, the risk of making the game far-right National Front, according to some. If not, leave the field open to all Marine Le Pen, according to others.

The UMP won yesterday just over 20% of the vote. And lose several departments, which will be handed the Socialist Party. All this would not be very serious if it happens to 13 months of the presidential and if these did not constitute cantonal elections, in fact, the last general election before that crucial vote in 2012.

And if not confirm what the polls suggest again and again: Sarkozy, despite his international activity, is at the lowest stage of his popularity in France. For its part, the French Socialist Party (PS), with 35.7% of the votes, the winner of the election. Among them are welcome, but no euphoria.

Also for this training day countdown to the 2012 presidential election. I warned yesterday its first secretary, Martine Aubry, "The French have already opened the way for change." To this end, the Socialists must choose a primary before their candidate. Aubry, one of the possible, announced today that, whatever happens, it will face in that primary to, in theory, most likely leader, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, director general of the International Monetary Fund and the French favorite probes.

This, in turn, has not clarified whether he will or not. But the election victory it has been awarded in the absence of a more euphoric and more convinced, Marine Le Pen. With 11.7% of the vote and elected two directors general (did not have any), the president of the French extreme right was shown yesterday, and today, very pleased.

Experts agree that the result confirms that the National Front moved permanently to French politics and strategy of the party desdiabolización undertaken by the daughter of Le Pen has paid off. "Contrary to 2002, and no anti-FN excited movement in civil society. It becomes, little by little, in the eyes of the people as a formation like the others", said today in Le Parisien Daniel Levy, president of the polling firm Harris Interactive.

Also for Marine Le Pen, today begins the race to the 2012 elections.

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