Thursday, February 24, 2011

Libya opposition disparate and unstructured

Muammar Gaddafi is it losing its standoff with the opposition? Several cities in the east are now in the hands of opponents. Everything has already started in Benghazi, North-East - the city is considered the historic stronghold of the opposition - at a rally, Feb. 17, commemorating the death of ten people killed during demonstrations in 2006.

Organized by exiled opposition groups, local human rights activists and social networks, gathering degenerates, and clashes between demonstrators and police made dozens of deaths. Over the days, the anger of Benghazi, harshly repressed, progresses through the country and will win up to Tripoli.

"The movement is far from being limited to youth was a protest movement in scope, contrary to what had prevailed in Egypt in the first place," said Barah Mikail, research director at the Foundation for International Relations and external dialogue. In a country where allegiance to his tribe is more important than membership of a state, 'both the protesters are proud that the scheme and claim their legitimacy, "observed Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research the Arab and Mediterranean World (CERMAM) in Geneva.

"The people joined the protest by a snowball effect. It embodies both the strength and weakness of a movement that is uncoordinated, "said Barah Mikail. In fact, the movement is not based on a structured opposition. Faced with the revolutionary committees, which play the role a single party, the opposition parties have their headquarters abroad.

In 2005, London, 150 persons had formed the National Conference for the Libyan opposition, who gave himself three goals: the end of the Gaddafi regime The establishment of a transitional government and then democratic government freely elected. But the political opposition had a small role in the dispute in Libya.

"The Libyan dissidents from abroad called those of the inside to show through social networks, but the Libyan opposition remained divided. The regime has infiltrated the organization: a son of Gaddafi, Saif al-Islam, established in discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood for their return to Libya, "according to Mr Abidi.

In the absence of opponents identified with whom to negotiate, Gaddafi did not fall partners to the anger of the street. "There is no national debate and the Libyans do not trust this regime," said Hasni Abidi. Apart from the tribes, the finding is the lack of structures within civil society.

"Horizons for the crisis seem nonexistent for Gaddafi. A point of no return has clearly been crossed, and alternatives to the current situation does not exist. One can think of a transition period that could be provided by the Libyan army. The problem is that it is not as prepared for this scenario that the armies of Egypt or Tunisia, "says Barah Mikail.

Zakarya Moukine Billah

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