Thursday, February 24, 2011

Fears after the turn of the Knight "Now we will pull the missiles that crazy"

ROME - United States, European Union, even the Arab League. All against Italy and its accondiscenza to the Libyan dictator. There are these pressures - as well as fear of retaliation, armed anti-Italian - behind the apparent change of course developed in the last 48 hours by the Libyan government on the crisis.

With the passage of Berlusconi as a defender of the principle of non-interference ("I do not want to disturb") a champion of the "wind of democracy". Already at the EU summit in Brussels, Foreign Minister Franco Frattini was able to measure how high was the risk of isolating Italy from other European partners.

But decisive in determining the reverse "U" have been talks with Frattini Hillary Clinton and the secretary general of the Arab League, Amr Mussa, met in Cairo two days ago. From those meetings and numerous conference call with Washington and European capitals, the message that came to Berlusconi and the Italian government was unanimous: Rome must match, the equidistance between the dictator and the protesters "is unacceptable." From here, the turning point, however, experience with suffering and great caution.

So much so that yesterday the Prime Minister did not leave a single word of explicit condemnation of the Colonel. They said that the Knight is shocked by the verbal violence of Gaddafi. Especially against accusations Italy - despite repeated accusations the call between the two - to maneuver behind the insurgency by supplying heavy weapons.

On the sidelines of the evening meeting at Palazzo Chigi on the discovery, Berlusconi has admitted his fear to a minister: "We must be careful with Gaddafi, is a fool. He has already fired a missile once it is there that leads to the next against? ". The memory of the attack against Libyan missile Lampedusa (1986) accompanying the prime minister along with the growing fear of retaliation against the Italians still in place.

"There are ten thousand compatriots scattered between Tripolitania and Cyrenaica - confirmed by the Ministry concerned - and less than a thousand are those who want to repatriate." Not to mention that any return would be very difficult to manage because the airports are open with the dropper and the Libyan navy carried out a naval blockade of ports.

In short, international pressures pushing Prime Minister's office to criticize the regime of the dictator but the realpolitik and national interests - energy, infrastructure - pull the other side. Berlusconi also still want to get some light on the state of things on the ground. He does not believe the figures circulating in the Arab media about the number of deaths.

"The secret services - a trust of participants in the Summit, Prime Minister's office - only yesterday we confirmed that the situation in Tripoli was not as dramatic, indeed. And so our ambassador said." In short, if it is true that the Cyrenaica is now in the hands of insurgents, the rest of the country seems still under the heel of Gaddafi.

Neither the incidents of desertion are held in such high esteem by the Italian authorities. "The Libyan pilots landed in Malta - noted the Minister Ignazio La Russa - said they fled not to fire on the crowd. They said things serious. But this is normal, all deserters are justified by similar reasons.

We can not rely only on These stories move. " To motivate the Italian prudence is also the fear of what might happen in Libya after the fall of the regime. It is the danger of a "leap of faith" that could lead to a de facto Islamic state bordering with Italy. "We must be careful about what will happen next," Berlusconi said yesterday, voicing concern for the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in a country which depends on 15% percent of gas consumed in Italy.

Fiamma Nirenstein, deputy Prime Minister listened to a lot of the PDL, adds another consideration: "The collapse of the Mubarak regime has led to the expansion of the sphere of influence of Iran, as witnessed by the passage of two warships in the Suez Canal . What can happen in Libya? ".

Berlusconi fears that lead to still keep the handbrake on.

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