Monday, May 9, 2011

Syria, still fighting after the weekend with blood. And the U.S. think of new sanctions

Another day of clashes and protests in Syria, after yet another weekend of blood. Since the dawn of Monday, tanks have been reported in the suburbs of the capital Damascus, as they say organizations for the protection of human rights that are becoming the main voice of the movement against the regime of President Bashar Assad.

The troops were in motion Muhadamiya especially around the neighborhood, where they were cut off electricity and telephone lines and from where, according to eyewitnesses, they get up columns of black smoke. The Syrian army, meanwhile, continue to keep under siege other cities epicenter of the protests, particularly in Homs, DERA, in the south, and Baniyas on the coast.

The death toll, according to opposition groups, continue to rise, with at least 800 deaths since the demonstrations two months ago, and thousands of people arrested by security services in the attempt, so far failed to calm the protests. The Syrian state television, however, has accused an unnamed "terrorist group outside" of the attack on a bus full of Syrian workers returning from Lebanon.

The bus was ambushed near Homs and ten people, all civilians, were killed. The opposition disputes the official version and indirectly accused the government, which maintains a strong military presence in Homs, the third city in the country, to feed the strategy of tension to justify an iron fist used against the demonstrators.

The Assad government's decision to leave no room for concessions or negotiations with the protesters, writes in an editorial today the U.S. newspaper Washington Post, has been reduced to bone the opportunity for the international community to give the government a way out without intervene.

The only guarantee that has so far held up the Syrian government, according to the Post, is the fact that Syria for its position as the keystone of the Middle East and Iran's closest ally, is an important piece of regional balance , not least the close relationship with Lebanon. For this reason, the newspaper USA, the international community has granted more time to Assad (and tolerance) than it had Gadhafi, but tolerance and time are running out.

The reference is to the new round of international sanctions that the White House is looking to extend those, which are very mild, already in force for several weeks. This time the asset freeze and travel ban would come in the circle closest to President Assad, but personally would still remain free from direct pressure.

The ultimate hope, increasingly weak, that Assad is back to being what he had promised to be the beginning of his presidency, in 2000, when he suggested that it would open the country to democratic demands that these days pushing thousands of Syrians to defy police and army. According to a report of the authoritative NGO International Crisis Group, however, the Syrian regime is already beyond the "point of no return." "If you choose to describe all forms of protest such as sedition and tackling them with increasing violence - writes the ICG - the Syrian regime has closed the door on any possible honorable exit from a political crisis that becomes ever deeper." According to the ICG, the regime has chosen to portray the protests as the result of an international plot that holds together "the U.S., Israel, Syria's enemies in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and more recently the jihadist groups." Wrong picture, adds the ICG, who writes: "Although we can not completely exclude the involvement of outside groups, the heart of the protests is a spontaneous popular movement, fueled more by the acts of the regime from alleged foreign interference ".

The ICG analysis goes to make explicit some of the questions circulating among Western governments: the government still controls, and effectively, the security services and the army? Assad receives very credible reports on the situation in the country? The questions are legitimate because they have already spent the Syrian security apparatus and army were crossed by internal tensions and clashes of power that have undermined its credibility.

To the extent that, today, even if the prosecution succeeds, the only possible future for the scheme would be dominated by a state security apparatus. Certainly not a long-term solution. Faced with this situation, according to the ICG, however, international intervention in "Libya-style" would be out of discussions that would be used by the regime to strengthen its position and why the first to be overwhelmed by a wave of further fighting would be the neighbors more fragile Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.

The international sanctions and political support to the protests appear at present the only way, unless you want to accelerate an inevitable collapse, but full of risks for themselves Syrians. Joseph Zarlingo - Letter 22

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