Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Spanish elections: "The protest vote would have occurred anyway"

A "tsunami". That is how the Spanish press described the heavy defeat, Sunday, May 22, the ruling Socialists in municipal and regional elections in Spain. If the movement of social protest, which affects the country since May 15, bringing together thousands of Spaniards in more than a hundred cities, had no real impact on the election results, it was nevertheless a sign harbinger of this dismal failure of the government by revealing the malaise of society, "says Jean-Jacques Kourliandsky, scholar of Spain at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.

The defeat of the socialist PSOE has not been a surprise. For months, polls showed a clear advantage of conservative Popular Party (PP), with a growing gap between the two major parties. The only element of uncertainty lay on the practical implications of this breakthrough of PP in all thirteen regions that classify their parliaments and 8 000 municipalities which elected their mayors and municipal councils.

In the end, with a score of 37% municipal, nine points (28%) higher than the PSOE, the PP has won many cities held for years by socialists like Barcelona or Seville, in accordance with the polls. Sunday's vote was a protest vote of the outgoing government with a national issue and not local.

Voters have punished especially the austerity measures introduced after the economic crisis, which led to an unprecedented social crisis, with wages and pensions on the decline, and rising unemployment, the highest EU European. Today, Spain and account for 21% of unemployed, including nearly half of young people, against 8% in 2007.

The current government no longer seems capable of solving the crisis in the eyes of the Spaniards. He lost his credibility vis-à-vis the voters, who do him more confidence, especially since it has been slow to admit that the country was facing an unprecedented crisis. In 2008, to ensure his reelection, Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said that Spain would not be affected, thanks to solid economic foundation, it had doubled Italy in terms of GDP and was about to join the leading group formed by France and Germany.

He has acknowledged recently that the country was experiencing a crisis effectively, while ensuring that it would soon be over. The PSOE has also adopted recently, a more social speech, promising to defend the social gains of workers. But those promises have come too late to be credible: the disconnection of voters had already taken place.

The Spaniards showed their rejection of the government and not a real support to the opposition. The PSOE has suffered from the defection of his troops. For example, local officials have not wanted Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero to come support them in their communities, preferring to take a step back.

Conversely, the PP has benefited from increased mobilization of voters, but without causing a rise in popularity of its leader, Mariano Rajoy. The movement of 15-May had no real effect on the election results because it is less a new element of the physical expression of discontent which affects Spain since long before s' never be expressed.

The protest vote would have occurred anyway, given the malaise affecting the country. These local elections provide an overview of the results of general elections in 2012, which will elect a new government. The People's Party will try to take advantage of her success to bring more voters for the upcoming election.

It should also attempt to calm the most extreme elements within it and focus on the center right. As for the PSOE, the challenge is to find a new leader, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero announced his retirement. If the party is recovering from the debacle this weekend, it should hold a primary process, which could pit two figures Socialist Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, senior vice president of government, Carme Chacón, Minister of Defence.

But whatever their leader, the Socialists will replace the office at the center of their priorities, despite the tight schedule they have. The parties of the third way, as Bildu in the Basque country, or UPD in Madrid, emerged stronger from the ballot, will also try to drill next year. Some want to organize a political movement to position itself on the chessboard institutional shift from emotional reaction to something more rational, without becoming a party, they refute the legitimacy.

But its structure may be difficult as it is a sixty-type movement eighter, meetings, informal and spontaneous enough. The movement may also falter even if discomfort persists until 2012. Interview by Audrey Garric

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