Saturday, May 7, 2011

The EU analysis of the Greek debt crisis in a meeting emergency

The euro experienced yesterday evening another attack by flatly denied rumors "about a possible departure from Greece of the single currency, threatening the stability of the entire system. Economic ministers of the big eurozone countries held a secret meeting in Luxembourg to discuss the possibility of renegotiating the terms for aid to Greece and avoid a default would imply a remission of debt, which in late 2010 amounted to 328.588 million, 142% of GDP.

The crisis caused a significant fall in the euro against the dollar, especially after the online edition of the German weekly Der Spiegel published a student demand that Greece leaving the single currency and that the matter would be addressed at a meeting last night. The Greek authorities reacted angrily.

"The article about an imminent departure for Greece in the euro area, besides being false, is written in an incomprehensible lightness despite repeated denials by the Greek Government and the governments of other member states," the ministry said Greek Finance, which considers such information "a provocation" which undermines "efforts" of Greece to tackle its economic problems helena, and stresses that only benefit the speculative positions.

Yesterday's meeting is part of the meetings of a group appointment with the utmost secrecy and informality in exceptional circumstances. Usually attend the Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the ECB, Jean-Claude Trichet, Economic Affairs Commissioner, Olli Rehn, the finance ministers of Germany and France, Wolfgang Schäuble and Christine Lagarde, respectively, and a other Minister of Economy, EU sources said.

Agence France Presse said that yesterday's meeting also included the Spanish Elena Salgado, the Italian Giulio Tremonti and Greek Giorgos Papaconstantinou. In conclusion, Junker told reporters that the idea that Greece leave the monetary union is "stupid." The meeting was intended to redress the difficult situation being experienced by the government in Athens, dogged by rumors that he can not cope with its massive debt and growing social unrest by successive cuts in wages, pensions and public spending in general .

This situation is unsustainable, according to German sources consulted by Der Spiegel, had forced the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, to consider the possibility of abandoning the euro and return to their former national currency, the drachma, which entail a loss 50% of its value.

German media have published false news often (including the rescue of Spain, a few months) that have aggravated the crisis in the euro quoting German government sources. Along with the anger and sharp denial of Athens, the veracity of the news was also denied by the spokesman of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and other stakeholders.

Also the spokesperson on Economic and Monetary Commission classified information fetched Der Spiegel. The meeting in Luxembourg discussed the possibility of renegotiating the terms of aid to Greece last year to avoid having to suspend payments and make a remission of their debt or abandon the euro.

In May 2010, the finance ministers of the 27 agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grant an aid package to Greece through loans of 110,000 million over three years, of which 80,000 correspond to the EU and 30,000 IMF. In return, Greece pledged to implement tough adjustment.

The agreement involved an average cost of aid of 5.2%. Last March, the ministers agreed to extend the loan term to seven years and a half and lower interest rates to 4.5%. Greece has already received four tranches of aid worth around 53,000 million, having pledged to Successive additional adjustments, and a plan of privatization of some 50,000 million.

However, his Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou, had recently raised the need to improve conditions with a new extension of repayment period, which some sources stood at 30, and an additional lowering of the loans. Efforts are under way to avoid at all costs, restructuring debt or removed from the Greek, whose effects would be much worse than the bankruptcy of U.S.

bank Lehman Brothers, as recently expressed the Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez Paramo ECB and Commissioner Olli Rehn. A Greek debt restructuring would also have direct adverse effects on the ECB. Sources close to the German finance ministry estimated at 40,000 million euros of Greek government debt purchased by the ECB.

Other sources downplay the hypothesis of a controlled restructuring of debt. The reality is that despite the aid, the cost of debt financing Greek in secondary markets has continued to grow. Since early this year, analysts believe that the chances of Greece was bounced off to make a debt of 40% or 50% within five years more than 50%.

The German media pointed to a departure from Greece a strong euro would decline in value of its currency, which would bring the debt to 200% of GDP. Der Spiegel admits, however, is not legally possible clear that the output of the euro. In any case, the mere publication of news may cause serious harm to Greece and a withdrawal of funds from banks if, despite the denials, the Greeks give it credibility.

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