Wednesday, March 9, 2011

The oil of Saudi Arabia will be enough?

The largest of the elephants, the one who made history, and is called Ghawar is dying in Saudi Arabia. The "elephants", in oil parlance, are the deposits of over one billion barrels of proven reserves and recoverable: Ghawar, the king, it has about 80 billion. A monster that continuously provides energy to the world since 1951.

Ghawar is in its final years. It reached the maximum daily production in 2005 and is now subject to a decline of 8% per annum. Like all true greats of the Earth, its agony is long and will not be painless. Ghawar has seen the country change so much around him, in the 60 years of his life, a country that is inextricably linked and that has been transformed thanks to oil.

Since the birth of Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, the population has increased sixfold and the internal oil consumption of nearly five times domestic consumption increases, and the elephant in agony, mean progressive difficulties for exports. Many rely on Saudi Arabia to replace the missing production in North Africa and other countries in political crisis.

But, as revealed by some recent Cable to Wikileaks, it is not a blind trust us. Despite the many announcements of "no problem", Saudi them the problem and how. It is even rumored that his efforts to swing producer to come from strategic reserves around the world than from fresh crude oil from wells.

Moreover, low-quality crude, certainly lower than that of Libya, for example, refining and more difficult. Will Saudi Arabia to keep pace with the pressing demands coming from all over the world, and to help calm the barrel? Until tomorrow, for sure, the next day you do not know. On 11 March will also bring in Saudi Arabia that "day of rage" that is raising threatening storms anywhere with an uncertain outcome.

The Saudi youth ask freedom and democracy, of course, but in reality we are facing at the meeting of the upslope of the population and domestic demand, with the downslope of the deposits is low. This meeting is the moment of destiny to which all oil-producing countries are called to respond sooner or later, you can not escape.

Ghawar, along with all of us will be watching.

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