More than a month after the start of the insurgency in eastern Libya, and five days after the bombing began by coalition aircraft, neither side has managed to take over. Gaddafi forces were repulsed from the city of Benghazi, but the insurgents, mostly civilians, young, whose number has never been accurately established, struggling to regain the territory they had snatched a few weeks ago.
Wednesday, March 23, they were still stuck on a front line drawn by the firing of mortar troops Gaddafi, ie about ten kilometers from the city of Ajdabiya. Further west, in Misrata, Western Aviation has come to the aid of insurgent fighters, unable to cope with tanks Gaddafi. The opponents were unable to advance, both by the acute shortage of ammunition, heavy weapons and vehicles as the lack of communication and military organization.
(See the map of the fighting in Libya) In pictures reported by foreign correspondents, we see young men dressed as soldiers riding in a car, then return a few minutes later after coming under artillery fire. "Since there's no-fly zone, they use other weapons, tanks, missiles, rockets," said one of them disappointed.
Similar evidence is reported that since the rebel offensive was violently rejected by the Libyan army in Ras Lanuf. In Benghazi, a stronghold of insurgents rescued by the French Air Force during the weekend, the daily population alternates between hope and frustration. "Most of the rebel fighters go to the front without having received any prior training, said the special envoy of the World site, Remy Ourdan.
There are thousands, mostly armed with rifles, but also sometimes with knives, or even without weapon, possibly until the death of a companion to retrieve his Kalashnikov and fight on in his place. " For Alexandre Vautravers, professor of international relations and military doctrine specialist at Webster University, Geneva, disorganization and inability to move troops rebels remind those who might have forgotten that "forces are not equal of both sides "in this conflict, despite the opening match of the Western coalition aviation.
"The organization of a logistics structure can not be improvised, especially a war in the desert, which requires a little more than a few people amount to a truck to cross a road and conquering a city," says he . In front, the army of Muammar Gaddafi, with nearly two thousand tanks, backed by mercenaries will toughen over the fighting.
As for the defections of soldiers who had joined the opposing camp, they are far from sufficient to provide a necessary framework, says Vautravers. "We know that at least fifty percent of the Libyan armed forces remain loyal to the regime. The question is what happened with the other fifty percent.
Some have joined the rebellion, but others have certainly vanished into the wild. " To this we must add "strong suspicion" that prevails in the ranks of insurgents vis-à-vis the former soldiers, says Remy Ourdan. "They support very few fighters on the front. I even heard lie about the military situation for political leaders of the rebellion, he says.
To say that they are spies of Qaddafi, c ' a charge is impossible to bear. " Faced with a hostile terrain and a lack of blatant insurgency in eastern owes its survival to the intervention of French aircraft, and there is nothing to say whether she will be able to mount a cons- offensive.
"For a real attack, we need a logistics very important that the rebellion did not. What they can do best is to barricade themselves on the spot and sell dearly for their skin. What they done so far, "says Alexander Vautravers. A spokesman for the rebels questioned by the freely admits that the last five days have been "difficult" before adding: "Do not stop the bombings.
The coalition and France should support us more coming days and we will do the rest, "he promises. However, under the terms of UN resolution 1973 which authorizes the use of force in Libya, the coalition began to defend the civilian population, to establish a cease-fire, but explicitly support any rebellion or aim directly Muammar Gaddafi.
To add a bit more confusion in the ranks of the rebels, members of the coalition multiply conflicting statements on how to conduct military operations, but also on their goal. The desire of Barack Obama and David Cameron to see the departure of Gaddafi is not shared by American and British military officials.
France, she clearly calls for a regime change. A confused strategy resulting "different interpretations" of Resolution 1973, Alexander Vautravers note, however, thinks that the insurgents are already benefiting from the indirect support of the coalition. "They are helped in a decisive manner by the allies, especially indirectly through a series of dies [arms] through Egypt," he says.
And even though most air missions are "superiority missions" designed to control the sky Libyan other type operations are "close air support," whose objective is to support ground units in the occurrence of rebel groups and to "loosen the noose around urban centers where the rebels are holed up." Duck chained reported that the French secret services "have quietly shipped to Benghazi guns, antiaircraft batteries and some instructors.
The only certainty so far, the rebels do not want a ground invasion. An option that is in any case not provided for by UN resolution and no country has raised so far. The question now is how long this can continue. Washington, London and Paris have repeatedly said they want a rapid military response.
"This is not bogged down, it will be a short-term operation," assured the head of French diplomacy, Alain Juppe. But it is clear that the stalemate is definitely there. Air operations came to end aviation Tripoli and regularly target tanks and other priorities. But the front lines, they, have moved a few kilometers.
Alexandre Vautravers for a speedy resolution of this conflict in the present state of things is extremely unlikely. "The international community will freeze the situation in Libya," he predicted, saying that the coalition might have to take even stricter measures, such as the establishment of demilitarized zones, exclusion ground or a protectorate internationally, but without going to a partition of the country.
A status quo that recalls that Iraq has lived between 1991 and 2003. Meanwhile, the allies are "condemned to make circles in the sky", as recognized by a military source quoted by the anonymous'. And the rebel fighters to expect a mass uprising in the cities that allow them to advance. Luke Vinogradoff 
Wednesday, March 23, they were still stuck on a front line drawn by the firing of mortar troops Gaddafi, ie about ten kilometers from the city of Ajdabiya. Further west, in Misrata, Western Aviation has come to the aid of insurgent fighters, unable to cope with tanks Gaddafi. The opponents were unable to advance, both by the acute shortage of ammunition, heavy weapons and vehicles as the lack of communication and military organization.
(See the map of the fighting in Libya) In pictures reported by foreign correspondents, we see young men dressed as soldiers riding in a car, then return a few minutes later after coming under artillery fire. "Since there's no-fly zone, they use other weapons, tanks, missiles, rockets," said one of them disappointed.
Similar evidence is reported that since the rebel offensive was violently rejected by the Libyan army in Ras Lanuf. In Benghazi, a stronghold of insurgents rescued by the French Air Force during the weekend, the daily population alternates between hope and frustration. "Most of the rebel fighters go to the front without having received any prior training, said the special envoy of the World site, Remy Ourdan.
There are thousands, mostly armed with rifles, but also sometimes with knives, or even without weapon, possibly until the death of a companion to retrieve his Kalashnikov and fight on in his place. " For Alexandre Vautravers, professor of international relations and military doctrine specialist at Webster University, Geneva, disorganization and inability to move troops rebels remind those who might have forgotten that "forces are not equal of both sides "in this conflict, despite the opening match of the Western coalition aviation.
"The organization of a logistics structure can not be improvised, especially a war in the desert, which requires a little more than a few people amount to a truck to cross a road and conquering a city," says he . In front, the army of Muammar Gaddafi, with nearly two thousand tanks, backed by mercenaries will toughen over the fighting.
As for the defections of soldiers who had joined the opposing camp, they are far from sufficient to provide a necessary framework, says Vautravers. "We know that at least fifty percent of the Libyan armed forces remain loyal to the regime. The question is what happened with the other fifty percent.
Some have joined the rebellion, but others have certainly vanished into the wild. " To this we must add "strong suspicion" that prevails in the ranks of insurgents vis-à-vis the former soldiers, says Remy Ourdan. "They support very few fighters on the front. I even heard lie about the military situation for political leaders of the rebellion, he says.
To say that they are spies of Qaddafi, c ' a charge is impossible to bear. " Faced with a hostile terrain and a lack of blatant insurgency in eastern owes its survival to the intervention of French aircraft, and there is nothing to say whether she will be able to mount a cons- offensive.
"For a real attack, we need a logistics very important that the rebellion did not. What they can do best is to barricade themselves on the spot and sell dearly for their skin. What they done so far, "says Alexander Vautravers. A spokesman for the rebels questioned by the freely admits that the last five days have been "difficult" before adding: "Do not stop the bombings.
The coalition and France should support us more coming days and we will do the rest, "he promises. However, under the terms of UN resolution 1973 which authorizes the use of force in Libya, the coalition began to defend the civilian population, to establish a cease-fire, but explicitly support any rebellion or aim directly Muammar Gaddafi.
To add a bit more confusion in the ranks of the rebels, members of the coalition multiply conflicting statements on how to conduct military operations, but also on their goal. The desire of Barack Obama and David Cameron to see the departure of Gaddafi is not shared by American and British military officials.
France, she clearly calls for a regime change. A confused strategy resulting "different interpretations" of Resolution 1973, Alexander Vautravers note, however, thinks that the insurgents are already benefiting from the indirect support of the coalition. "They are helped in a decisive manner by the allies, especially indirectly through a series of dies [arms] through Egypt," he says.
And even though most air missions are "superiority missions" designed to control the sky Libyan other type operations are "close air support," whose objective is to support ground units in the occurrence of rebel groups and to "loosen the noose around urban centers where the rebels are holed up." Duck chained reported that the French secret services "have quietly shipped to Benghazi guns, antiaircraft batteries and some instructors.
The only certainty so far, the rebels do not want a ground invasion. An option that is in any case not provided for by UN resolution and no country has raised so far. The question now is how long this can continue. Washington, London and Paris have repeatedly said they want a rapid military response.
"This is not bogged down, it will be a short-term operation," assured the head of French diplomacy, Alain Juppe. But it is clear that the stalemate is definitely there. Air operations came to end aviation Tripoli and regularly target tanks and other priorities. But the front lines, they, have moved a few kilometers.
Alexandre Vautravers for a speedy resolution of this conflict in the present state of things is extremely unlikely. "The international community will freeze the situation in Libya," he predicted, saying that the coalition might have to take even stricter measures, such as the establishment of demilitarized zones, exclusion ground or a protectorate internationally, but without going to a partition of the country.
A status quo that recalls that Iraq has lived between 1991 and 2003. Meanwhile, the allies are "condemned to make circles in the sky", as recognized by a military source quoted by the anonymous'. And the rebel fighters to expect a mass uprising in the cities that allow them to advance. Luke Vinogradoff
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