Sunday, February 20, 2011

Electoral defeat for the CDU in Hamburg, the SPD wins hands down

BERLIN - Very Severe defeat of the CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel in elections today in the city-state of Hamburg according to early exit polls, the majority party on the local government not only loses but collects a blow beyond all expectations, down from 42.6% the previous regional (held in 2008) to a meager 20.5%.

The CDU and then goes out more than half of this consultation. Olaf Scholz with the reformist leader of the Social Democrats (SPD) fly from 34.1% to 49.5% around a result. In all likelihood, then the SPD will reach the absolute majority, can govern itself and the federal state which is also the second largest city in the German population, and the richest of all.

Advancing the Greens, who from 9.6% three years ago come to 11-11, 6%, while the two smaller parties, namely the Linke (left radical opposition) and FDP (liberal partners Government of Merkel and the CDU's regional government is also outgoing, Hamburg) both stood around 6.5%, thus well above the 5% of the quorum required to be represented.

The defeat of the CDU was announced in every survey, but its scope, and extent of social democratic success, surprised. At the federal level, resulting in Hamburg Angela Merkel begins badly the 'super-election year', where elections will take place in six of the sixteen states of the Bundesrepublik.

In many, according to opinion polls, the Chancellor of cristianoconservatori big risk. Even in rich Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Bundesland (federal state) of the Southwest that is almost always a Democratic stronghold. In Hamburg, the SPD in many ways reflected his pride and his desire to make policy: to beat the mayor-governor-Democrat Christoph Ahlhaus was Olaf Scholz, a local leader grew up politically in the era of government (1998-2005) Registrar Social reformist Gerhard Schroeder and his deputy, former Green leader Joschka Fischer.

A significant fact: Ten years ago the Democrats had conquered Hamburg, traditional 'red bastion' (Social Democrat) in the war thanks to their candidate, Ole von Beust. A modernist reformer, a leading figure of the wing opening embodied by the CDU Angela Merkel, and popular because openly gay.

But when in 2010 von Beust has decided to leave for private reasons of politics, the party replaced him as governor with the conservative, traditionalist Ahlhaus. A referral to voters, not least the enlightened bourgeoisie nurtured the Hanseatic cities, have preferred a return of the SPD with its local leader and reformist antimassimalista, Scholz precisely.

Given the complex electoral system of Hamburg city-state (voters, 1.3 million, to fill the board with 19 crosses) the official final results will be known only in a few days but the indication of political exit polls and projections is already clear . The successes of Merkel at national, European and international level, and the strong economic recovery in Germany, not enough to save the party 'most powerful woman in the world' by electoral defeat.

In many Bundeslaender have fatal consequences for the federal government and the Chancellor disaffection for the local CDU leadership, together with (in some cases) to tensions on the labor market and fears for the consequences of the increasing European integration and the cost to Germany rescue of the eurozone states in difficulty.

The Bundesrat (Chamber of the States, the German second chamber) this year, the opposition may gain a strong advantage and this makes it more difficult for legislation and government action to Angela Merkel.

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