Sunday, February 20, 2011

Dupret: "Spring is an opportunity for Arab leaders Moroccan"

Sunday, February 20, several events will take place in Morocco for broad political reforms. This movement started by young people claiming among other things changing the constitution and true social reform. Interview with Baudouin Dupret, research director at CNRS. These are various groups working through the Facebook network, which have called for demonstrations in different parts of Morocco, February 20.

We're talking nearly 10 000 registered on the social network, which does not mean they will be much to show on Sunday. The war of numbers is raging since the beginning of the "Arab Spring" on the one hand, and solidarity in the virtual space does not mean militancy in the field, on the other.

Political parties remain extremely discreet about the matter. This is due largely to the fact that since the 1990s, a good dose of pluralism was introduced in Moroccan politics. The political arena has been somewhat "defused." And the field office has been with the advent of Mohammed VI, although we can perceive a kind of slowing the momentum of reform.

In this regard, the Arab spring may be more an opportunity than a threat to the palace, giving him the opportunity to relaunch the site of the reforms, headed by Justice and regionalization. It is difficult to assess the surface of Al Adl Wal Ihsan. This movement has certainly percolated widely in poor and middle social strata.

However, it has focused on social action, like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. It is hard to imagine him taking the head of a political movement, because it would expose him to a backlash serious consequences if his demands are not successful. The spring is an opportunity for Arab leaders in Morocco.

The monarch has little or no legitimacy tarnished. It is widely perceived as the "king of the poor", active in the social field, so that the French newspaper most critical could titrate this fall, "Should we do everything?". In other words, the challenge may be for the government, but it is more difficult to imagine that it affects the King.

And to that extent, the system will remain intact. There may be some increase in social demands, rather than political, but it is likely to remain limited, because the policy space of the Palace and the government remains high, despite the crisis. Once again, we should expect more power to seize the opportunity to unlock some locks, such as judicial reform, fight against corruption or regionalization, rather than fear a scenario in Tunisia ( to the reform) or Algeria (to the repression).

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