Since Monday 23 May, the Yemeni capital was the scene of violent clashes between forces loyal to President Saleh and opposition to the plan, embodied in particular by the powerful tribal leader Sadek al-Ahmar. According to an initial assessment, more than eighty people have already died in the fighting city.
Samy Dorlian, teacher at the IEP of Aix-en-Provence, President Saleh "opts for violence as a headlong rush to cause splits in the opposition movement." Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ahmar is the head of one of the biggest tribal confederations of Yemen. A confederation to which belongs also the President Saleh.
Al-Ahmar has joined the opposition in March, after a day of violence where fifty-two protesters were killed. There is a dimension "intra-tribal" in these battles, and also a personal dimension, as both men know each other well. By tackling the most important tribal leader of the country, Saleh hopes to deter other members of the opposition to confront him.
We tend to explain all the problems in Yemen by intertribal reading grid, but this conflict is highly political. There is no religious or ethnic dimension. The claims of the opposition are political: an end to corruption, regime change ... From the beginning of revolt, President Saleh has tried to reactivate vertical divisions to marginalize the political mobilization.
The authority has tried to play on for example the historic rivalry between the two major tribal confederations in Yemen. But it did not work. He also tried to activate the regional and sectarian divide between the highlands and lowlands, and the imperialist card, claiming it was a Zionist plot aimed at the Arab world.
But the mobilization has endured and has kept his pacifist nature. It is difficult to determine what positions may still adopt the President Saleh. He has exhausted diplomatic channels by repeatedly postpone the signing of the famous agreement of transition of power developed by the Gulf countries.
Thanks to these successive periods, the president gained time to reorganize his power, and purchase additional support. He made sure such solidarity of certain tribes, notably around Sana'a. Some soldiers who had joined the protests have again joined his camp. It has strengthened, hence his refusal to sign the final agreement which requires him to relinquish power.
Faced with this refusal, Western countries began to raise his voice. In response, President Saleh has decided to opt for the card of violence as a headlong rush. In terms of military power, it remains higher than the opposition. It's a way to show the international community that if pressures persist, the violence will prevail.
However, he believes that the Gulf countries - Saudi Arabia in particular - and the West have an interest in what the country does not flare. He hopes to be able to stay ahead of power. President Saleh efforts primarily on the fragmentation of the opposition. He hopes his strategy will be to break the opposition, especially among young supporters and opponents of the peace movement favoring violence.
Moreover, it is true that we begin to hear the slogans that were not originally brought by the movement. For example, there was a Confederate mobilization since 2007, which claimed the independence of South Yemen. At the beginning of the controversy, this mobilization was built in opposition to President Saleh.
But you hear gradually emerge from these new old secessionist claims. The revolutionary energy begins to dissipate. I think that President Saleh has two different scenarios in mind. It has reference to Bahrain, where mobilization was put down, but where the authority has managed to stay in place without the international community can react.
For the president of Yemen, a comparable scenario would be the best solution. He also led the Libyan scenario, where the international coalition is struggling. Saleh was therefore aware that the international community could be quite chilly to another military intervention in an Arab country.
Interview by Charlotte Chabas 
Samy Dorlian, teacher at the IEP of Aix-en-Provence, President Saleh "opts for violence as a headlong rush to cause splits in the opposition movement." Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ahmar is the head of one of the biggest tribal confederations of Yemen. A confederation to which belongs also the President Saleh.
Al-Ahmar has joined the opposition in March, after a day of violence where fifty-two protesters were killed. There is a dimension "intra-tribal" in these battles, and also a personal dimension, as both men know each other well. By tackling the most important tribal leader of the country, Saleh hopes to deter other members of the opposition to confront him.
We tend to explain all the problems in Yemen by intertribal reading grid, but this conflict is highly political. There is no religious or ethnic dimension. The claims of the opposition are political: an end to corruption, regime change ... From the beginning of revolt, President Saleh has tried to reactivate vertical divisions to marginalize the political mobilization.
The authority has tried to play on for example the historic rivalry between the two major tribal confederations in Yemen. But it did not work. He also tried to activate the regional and sectarian divide between the highlands and lowlands, and the imperialist card, claiming it was a Zionist plot aimed at the Arab world.
But the mobilization has endured and has kept his pacifist nature. It is difficult to determine what positions may still adopt the President Saleh. He has exhausted diplomatic channels by repeatedly postpone the signing of the famous agreement of transition of power developed by the Gulf countries.
Thanks to these successive periods, the president gained time to reorganize his power, and purchase additional support. He made sure such solidarity of certain tribes, notably around Sana'a. Some soldiers who had joined the protests have again joined his camp. It has strengthened, hence his refusal to sign the final agreement which requires him to relinquish power.
Faced with this refusal, Western countries began to raise his voice. In response, President Saleh has decided to opt for the card of violence as a headlong rush. In terms of military power, it remains higher than the opposition. It's a way to show the international community that if pressures persist, the violence will prevail.
However, he believes that the Gulf countries - Saudi Arabia in particular - and the West have an interest in what the country does not flare. He hopes to be able to stay ahead of power. President Saleh efforts primarily on the fragmentation of the opposition. He hopes his strategy will be to break the opposition, especially among young supporters and opponents of the peace movement favoring violence.
Moreover, it is true that we begin to hear the slogans that were not originally brought by the movement. For example, there was a Confederate mobilization since 2007, which claimed the independence of South Yemen. At the beginning of the controversy, this mobilization was built in opposition to President Saleh.
But you hear gradually emerge from these new old secessionist claims. The revolutionary energy begins to dissipate. I think that President Saleh has two different scenarios in mind. It has reference to Bahrain, where mobilization was put down, but where the authority has managed to stay in place without the international community can react.
For the president of Yemen, a comparable scenario would be the best solution. He also led the Libyan scenario, where the international coalition is struggling. Saleh was therefore aware that the international community could be quite chilly to another military intervention in an Arab country.
Interview by Charlotte Chabas
- You: Yemeni president adamant he 'will not leave power' (25/05/2011)
- Yemen won't become failed state, president says - Reuters (25/05/2011)
- Fighting grips Yemeni capital as Saleh orders arrests (26/05/2011)
- What is really happening in Yemen: a shootout between two elitist factions of the same tribe (27/05/2011)
- Yemen's president vows no retreat as battles rage (25/05/2011)
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