For the first time since the start of the protest movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, opposition organization banned in Syria, officially called the Syrians to show Friday, the day of great prayer. For the journalist Richard Labévière, author of When Syria awake ... (Perrin, 2011), published in January, the risk of civil war is real between Sunnis and Shiites.
But the second level is the role played by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist groups. Deraa, the epicenter of the dispute is only a few kilometers from the Jordanian border. There has always been there for border tribes who opposed the Baathist regime central. Since the beginning, the Muslim Brotherhood are the levers in this movement.
There is no doubt today that they have infiltrated the demonstrations, and they cause incidents, for example drawing on the strengths of the order. Syria is a majority Sunni country, but the authority is Alawite, an offshoot of Shiism. Yet we must not forget that the challenge in Syria is part of other movements in neighboring countries.
At the regional level, the situation is complex. Bahrain has been shaken by a strong Shiite revolt. And the authorities have accused Iran, the main Shiite, of being behind this movement. I think that in response, the Saudis, Sunni, have decided to weaken the weak link, Syria. So they infiltrated Sunni armed groups to destabilize the country.
The great danger is from falling into civil war. And in case of confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites, it will certainly very bloody. Minorities are also afraid of this risk. My Christian friends tell me clearly: "If the regime falls, we're dead." For now, various groups have managed to cohabit almost peacefully, despite the movement of 1982 and the massacre of Hama.
But we must not forget that the risk of civil war is real. We heard in processions slogan: "The Alawite in the grave, the Christians in Beirut." The other possibility is a scenario like in Algeria, with repression foci confined to protest. It is envisaged as the hub cities, Damascus and Aleppo, are stable.
Bashar Al-Assad is not compelled to pursue the crackdown. The problem is that he has been very slow to respond to the demand for freedom. Especially he is not alone in power. It is actually the voice of a confrontation between old and modern government. In the Syrian authorities, there are men like General Nassif, or former advisors of his father, who remain very conservative.
On the other hand, there is Ali Mamlouk, director general inquiries, or his special adviser, who quickly announced the lifting of emergency rule. Those are the renewal of Syria, and were pressing for example establish civic forums for discussion as in the spring of Damascus in July 2000.
In this short period, there were real political and social debates that have marked the Syrians. The management of the revolt and that balance depends on their influence. Interview by Charlotte Chabas 
But the second level is the role played by the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist groups. Deraa, the epicenter of the dispute is only a few kilometers from the Jordanian border. There has always been there for border tribes who opposed the Baathist regime central. Since the beginning, the Muslim Brotherhood are the levers in this movement.
There is no doubt today that they have infiltrated the demonstrations, and they cause incidents, for example drawing on the strengths of the order. Syria is a majority Sunni country, but the authority is Alawite, an offshoot of Shiism. Yet we must not forget that the challenge in Syria is part of other movements in neighboring countries.
At the regional level, the situation is complex. Bahrain has been shaken by a strong Shiite revolt. And the authorities have accused Iran, the main Shiite, of being behind this movement. I think that in response, the Saudis, Sunni, have decided to weaken the weak link, Syria. So they infiltrated Sunni armed groups to destabilize the country.
The great danger is from falling into civil war. And in case of confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites, it will certainly very bloody. Minorities are also afraid of this risk. My Christian friends tell me clearly: "If the regime falls, we're dead." For now, various groups have managed to cohabit almost peacefully, despite the movement of 1982 and the massacre of Hama.
But we must not forget that the risk of civil war is real. We heard in processions slogan: "The Alawite in the grave, the Christians in Beirut." The other possibility is a scenario like in Algeria, with repression foci confined to protest. It is envisaged as the hub cities, Damascus and Aleppo, are stable.
Bashar Al-Assad is not compelled to pursue the crackdown. The problem is that he has been very slow to respond to the demand for freedom. Especially he is not alone in power. It is actually the voice of a confrontation between old and modern government. In the Syrian authorities, there are men like General Nassif, or former advisors of his father, who remain very conservative.
On the other hand, there is Ali Mamlouk, director general inquiries, or his special adviser, who quickly announced the lifting of emergency rule. Those are the renewal of Syria, and were pressing for example establish civic forums for discussion as in the spring of Damascus in July 2000.
In this short period, there were real political and social debates that have marked the Syrians. The management of the revolt and that balance depends on their influence. Interview by Charlotte Chabas
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