Thursday, March 17, 2011

The worst case scenario: release comparable to Chernobyl

Faced with uncertainty, experts are forced to develop scenarios. They speak of hypotheses, probability, are meant careful. But do not hide their concern. While the situation is still not controlled in Fukushima, the area around the plant is already exposed to significant radioactive releases. To date, the radioactive particles in the atmosphere around the plant comes mainly from the No.

2 engine, including the containment has been damaged. It is also focusing on the case of this reactor as the Institute of Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) conducted a simulation to try to understand the extent of possible contamination. On the plant site, the dose of radiation that would be exposed in this scenario a person would remain outside without protection achieved more than 1000 mSv.

From this threshold, said Dr. Patrick Gourmelon, head of the protection of human health at IRSN, "ionizing radiation begin to destroy the bone marrow, with involvement of stem cells, fewer platelets and white blood cells ... That means that players are risking their lives in the weeks and months.

" The state of the discharge pool concentrates all the fears into boiling water threatens to do more to ensure the fuel coolant, worn but still highly radioactive. If cooling does not improve, before all the fuel is completely out of water, said Thierry Charles, director of security at the IRSN facilities, "it will take a day or two, then after releases will occur ".

These would be much larger than those already identified at Units 1 to 3, since fuel pools are located virtually in the air, without containment. The accident would then take on another dimension: "We would be in the same range of releases that Chernobyl," said Thierry Charles. Besides such a level of emissions would jeopardize ongoing operations in other parts of the site became too dangerous.

What is it for people residing outside the area vacated by the authorities, a 20 km radius around the plant? In the current scenario, forty-eight hours after the early releases, they would not be exposed to a high risk: at this distance, the simulation gives a lower cumulative dose of radioactivity to 10 mSv.

"For [the] population, it is in another universe," said Dr. Patrick Gourmelon. Below 100 mSv, we believe that we are in the field of low doses, so low risk. It becomes very low below 10 mSv, and negligible below 1 mSv. "As for an impact far beyond the borders of the archipelago, there is currently no news.

In Europe, "levels that are expected given the distance are very weak," the limit of detection devices, said Didier Champion. Solletty Marion

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