Tuesday, March 1, 2011

"Everybody expects the fall of Tripoli"

How to organize a political alternative sustainable in a country in chaos, with no parties, no unions and no Constitution? That is the question that divides today the leaders of the opposition to Colonel Qaddafi, while the capital remains in the hands of the Guide of the Libyan revolution. Sunday, February 27, Benghazi, a stronghold of the challenge set in the east (see map of Libyan cities abandoned by the pro-Qaddafi), leaders of the insurgency have announced the formation of an independent national transition representing cities fell to the insurgents.

Its composition and mode of operation have not been arrested. According to his spokesman, Abdelhafez Ghoqa, the body is mainly responsible for embodying "the political face of the revolution". It does not in any way constitute a provisional government. In this initiative differs from the one launched yesterday by the former justice minister, Mustafa Abdel-Jalil.

First government member to have resigned in protest against the violence of the regime, he spoke Saturday the creation of a transitional government in Benghazi, on the decision "of members of local councils in parts of eastern Libya." Up to three months maximum, the entity composed "of military and civilian personalities" should be primarily responsible for preparing the "fair elections" in the country.

Ambitious project could be viable if it unites. But for now, it is far from unanimous. To believe the spokesman of the National Independent, former minister from Benghazi "represents no one but himself." Not only his idea of a transitional government is "personal views", but it is "premature to discuss the elections," estimeAbdelhafez Ghoqa.

"Our capital is still under siege," he recalls. "In short, everyone is waiting for the fall of Tripoli," summarizes Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World, Geneva. "The initiatives were born in Benghazi these days are trial balloons.

Opponents are trying to lay the groundwork for what could be the post-Qaddafi, but the centralization of power has created a huge void," the researcher. From one city to another, the movement is not coordinated (see A Benghazi released, creating a transitional government that debate, publishing Subscribers).

"Opponents want to avoid at all costs," said Hasni Abidi, but is too early to consider a comprehensive strategy to reclaim the political field. A task made more difficult as the opposition is fragmented inside and outside the country. Most opponents of the Gaddafi regime historic live in exile abroad.

Installed mainly in the United States, Great Britain, Sweden and Germany, they have supported calls for insurgents on their websites and continue to maintain contacts with opponents on the spot. Some have returned, but they lost the influence gained in the years 1970-1980 for the rehabilitation of the Guide on the international stage (see Libya opposition disparate and unstructured).

"Apart from the Islamists, they have become inaudible. It is an opposition of persons, state of mind, no parties," said Hasni Abidi. The army itself is divided. If some members have joined the insurgents, especially in Benghazi, troops loyal to the Guide still hold several strongholds of the country.

Unlike their Egyptian counterparts, the Libyan military is not a body united and strong. "Long marginalized by the revolutionary committees [militia emerged in 1977 with the establishment of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and charged with protecting the Green Revolution], the army is weak and unstructured note Hasni Abidi.

Until the situation did not stabilize in the liberated cities, it must take the seats won by the insurgents. There remain pockets, Sirte and SEDH, where power is still strong. To fall Tripoli, only the military stationed in the west of the capital can act. " Elise Barthet

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