Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Pragmatic, "the Muslim Brotherhood would rather not be at the forefront"

Researcher at the University of Kent (Ohio, USA), Joshua Stacher evaluates the social and political weight of the Muslim Brotherhood and opportunities opening up for the Brotherhood, the main opposition force in Egypt, while the regime Hosni Mubarak is weaker than ever. You have to put the movement in context: it is patriotic demonstrations against a regime considered a client of the United States, which annually receives 1.5 billion dollars in aid.

The Muslim Brotherhood, as a political system capable of mobilizing, taking part in this patriotic movement. The Brotherhood has probably made a miscalculation at the beginning of the dispute and did not understand its magnitude. Today, she feels that the movement has a real chance to bring down Mubarak, she is ready to demonstrate.

But she did not want to be leader of the protest that its presence does not serve as an excuse for greater repression. Yes, if a strong constitution was in place, that does not put a law above the other, the Muslim Brotherhood would be willing to participate in an alternation in a democratic framework.

The brotherhood could well take part in peaceful elections, winning and losing peacefully peacefully. [The fraternity also participates in the National Coalition for Change, which instructed Mohamed ElBaradei to "negotiate" with the regime.] No, the Brotherhood does not become radicalized.

If conservatives now hold leadership positions, because the brothers were subjected to repressive measures by ultra power: since the 2005 parliamentary elections [in which they had obtained 88 seats, one fifth of the Assembly], their members were arbitrarily arrested. Repression has fostered the fragmentation of the group and therefore put forward the most conservative voices.

No, the electoral mechanism does not account for their influence. Excluding the military, they are most organized force in Egypt. We must also take into account their social function, which is extremely important. The Brothers live closer to their communities. They are respected not only as the Muslim Brotherhood, but also as doctors, lawyers, pharmacists, engineers or teachers.

Everything depends on the legal context in which these elections would be held. During three decades, the regime of Hosni Mubarak has been careful to prevent the participation of any opposition movement. The various political opposition - liberal, nationalist, socialist or communist - are very unstructured.

In this context, the Muslim Brotherhood are the most organized force, so they have every chance at elections. In contrast, the Brotherhood has made clear it would not present a candidate for the presidency. She wants to political participation but it does not lead a government. If a Muslim Brother won a presidential Egypt could be diplomatically isolated.

The international community - the United States and Israel in mind - would not agree to see an Islamist regime in charge of Egypt. The Brothers therefore prefer not to be at the forefront. They are willing to participate in political life, as this does not undermine the international status of Egypt.

Yes. You should know that there is a real opportunity today to Egypt follows a new path. If a democratic process was being established, one can imagine that the most radical voices or more antagonists of the Brotherhood would become more discrete, while the more pragmatic would be given more weight.

Moreover, one can not exclude a party from the brotherhood into being, the image of the AKP in Turkey [ruling Justice and Development, winner of the presidential and legislative Turkey in 2007] and presents a candidate for president. Several articles and academic publications Joshua Stacher is available on its website.

On the eve of legislative elections in December, the Moroccan weekly TelQuel investigating the internal divisions among the Muslim Brotherhood. A study (PDF) of the Swiss Institute Religioscope illuminates the role played by social and charitable brotherhood. Interview by Mathilde GĂ©rard

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