Thursday, February 3, 2011

Obama and Mubarak, "Mr. Change" is afraid of the revolution

Egypt's Mubarak old autocrat makes a few concessions to reject a rapid withdrawal - the U.S. president reacts cautiously, carefully. Obama wants to avoid chaos and the power gain of Islamists file. If the Nobel Peace Prize on the wrong side of history? The realist foreign policy than most out fine. Finally, boasts the realist, the true interests of nations to assess as cool as they are "just".

The followers of this school of thought seems to have been leased by the concept of reason. The idealist has a difficult position, he is considered to be slightly blue-eyed and naive, even as a dreamer. Even more serious, however, does a realist, which many consider an idealist. President Barack Obama is more in this group.

After his election, hoped much of the world on a moral, an idealistic turn of U.S. foreign policy. The Nobel Prize committee in Oslo urged the Democrat's peace prize to almost a precautionary measure. Obama fostered this impression: He called in his senior government employees such as Samantha Power, a young Harvard professor who conducted research on ethical dilemmas before the U.S.

foreign policy. A little of this new mood of the campaign can still be felt when demonstrators in Cairo to hold up signs that say: ". Yes, we can, too" But every American president must remain a realist, even Obama. Perhaps never more painful than clear on Tuesday, the day of the million march in Cairo and the first public speech by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak since the protests began.

Obama had to be wound on the future of Mubarak's comments, which declined in his address to a second term, a quick resignation refused. First, Obama was on the phone for half an hour with the hated rulers. Now the President says in the Grand Foyer of the White House in carefully constructed sentences, it would in Egypt "give orderly transition" a, fair and free elections, the status quo is no solution.

But the fact that Mubarak should go immediately, the Obama calls still not clear - not even when a reporter asks specifically. "Mr. Change" suddenly threatens to be on the other side. In the group, the change is rather suspect. Bow to the oil despots This will hurt the politician Obama.

This development may be surprised but not really, it's only high point of the metamorphosis of a political Messiah in a real politician. And Obama as president bowed quickly before the oil despots in Saudi Arabia. He also left its autocrats in Tunisia, Jordan, Egypt or even their prison chambers and foreign accounts, all in the sense of stability in the region.

Open grain enhancement for the Green Revolution in Iran, he bit back in 2009. Human rights and democracy, these words take the Nobel Peace Prize Obama anyway rather hesitant in the mouth. Of course this is difficult with on its heritage: these terms are in many parts of the world has become almost dirty words after predecessor George W.

Bush to PR arms of his "Freedom Agenda" was - and about in Iraq would prevail by tanks, with known devastating consequences. Condoleezza Rice, Bush's foreign minister, gave a speech in Cairo in 2005 or in which they held up Egypt's failures. Mubarak was raging. When Obama later in the same stadium four years addressed the Islamic world, he mentioned the weaknesses in Cairo than in passing.

Each country must find its own path to democracy, he seemed almost conciliatory Mubarak to shout. In Obama's White House can be heard now more likely to vote as that of the former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft, an icon of realism. As Bush held up Ms. Rice that, for decades America had Diktatn pampered in the region, must stop the last, the wise old Scowcroft smiled slyly: But you've been there so all the decades of peace.

Obama can now look similar to the pragmatic world, the office brings with it. And in view of Cairo can be difficult to blame him such a view. So exciting images from there, so disgusting, it seems that the Americans nursed with its 1.5-billion-dollar injection of funds per year, a military dictatorship and Egypt - is also undeniable that the United States in return for their strategic interests in Mubarak looked in good hands.

The eternal dictator made peace with Israel, he mediated in the peace process. The Americans saw him as a bulwark against the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, as a guarantee that the bottleneck tanker Suez Canal remains open. Is there a replacement for Mubarak? Mubarak was for Washington "the devil we know" the devil we know, as in The New York Times "is - no one in the U.S.

capital, however, really knows the leaders who could follow him. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the Vienna Atomic Energy Agency and even a Nobel Peace Prize? He has Obama's reluctance to let Mubarak fall, already angry a "farce", in the Bush years, he particularly likes to lay with the Americans.

The followers of the Muslim Brotherhood, who may not be quite so radical? Washington does not trust them deeply, and certainly it does Israel. Have they really broken away from al-Qaida? And anyway, what effect would a new power constellation adjacent to the countries? Threatens further instability? On Tuesday, Jordan's King Abdullah II has already dismissed his government as a precaution.

For Washington strategists as much upheaval is almost a nightmare - and Obama's team, "almost completely surprised by the events" (Politico), is presently driven rather than impulsive. Richard Cohen, columnist for the Washington Post writes: "The dream of a democratic Egypt will end in a nightmare America must stand on the side of human rights, but it must also be on the right side of history..." Perhaps, as fears Cohen, voted this time, the two objectives do not match easily.

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