The appointment of permanent members of Security Council UN and Germany with Iran, Jan. 21 in Istanbul, he will begin a thaw nuclear issue? Several clues suggest this time for a little optimism. First sign, the tone of exchanges has recently softened: less invective, less hurtful to both sides. This raised hopes that talks were useful discrete prepared the planned meeting.Ahmadinejad's remarks of last spring on the other hand the desire to reconnect with America and Europe. The Iranian leader has come a third of his second and final term. He still has two and a half to go down in history as anything other than the beneficiary of a heavily contested election, as the denier of the Holocaust, as the President under which the economy has deteriorated further and Punishment cured.
But a beginning of normalization with the United States after more than thirty years of isolation, immediately restore his popularity among a population thirsting for opening. Internally, the program it has launched to remove the quasi-free products such as gasoline or bread in favor of targeted subsidies to the poorest start to put the state budget and the economy to the place.
The progress of this project would appear Ahmadinejad as a leader courageous and lucid, realizing that none had dared in the past fifty years. But to help get the reform bitter, an international success would be very helpful. Hence the importance to him of the proper conduct of the negotiations.
To increase the chances Ahmadinejad recently got rid of his Minister of Foreign Affairs official who oppressed him, to appoint in his place Ali Akbar Salehi, President of the Iranian Atomic Energy. It is still only acting minister. But he has already set the priorities of his ministry, along the lines of appeasement with the outside world.
This nuclear physicist and graduate of American University of Beirut and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, entered into diplomacy under President Mohammad Khatami as ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency. If Ahmadinejad has chosen, it's less affinity for its scientific expertise and negotiator.
American side, the atmosphere is also opening. Barack Obama, restrained by the new Republican majority in Congress, weighed down by the crisis, should reap success outside hope for re-election. The best would be a revival of the stalled Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But a detente with Iran would remove Netanyahu government delaying its arguments on the need to reduce the Iranian threat beforehand.
The U.S. president has never withdrawn Stretched upon his arrival in Tehran regime. He seems to have finally agreed with his vision of things Hillary Clinton. It just indicated that America might finally agree to keep Tehran see, under conditions, its ability to enrich uranium. Now this is the key point of negotiation, which the West for eight years, trying to bend Iran, and on which the Islamic Republic has always said she would never yield.
Well said, a breakthrough seems at hand. This is without counting the objective alliance of opponents of any compromise with the opposing party, equally powerful in both camps. The Iranian side are those who find interest in the country's isolation and Iranian society. It is those who do not wish to see Ahmadinejad to rebuild their health policy through a decisive success.
They have derailed the American initiative, launched in summer 2009, an exchange of enriched uranium fuel for Iran against the innocent research reactor in Tehran. They remain alert to inadvertent actions of the other party, including postures which proves beneficial in easing Iranian positions as the beginning of the submission and evidence of the effectiveness of sanctions.
On the other side are those who want to see disappear, or at least put out of harm's way, the scheme beyond the standards of the civilized world. Convinced that he is desperate to acquire nuclear weapons, they fear the compromises that would facilitate the prosecution to cover this program.
They succeeded, by dint of aggressive, giving the appearance of an ultimatum to the clever exchange offer for summer 2009. They torpedoed the spring of 2010 the Turkish-Brazilian initiative to revive that project, however, supported by Obama himself. It nevertheless allowed the recent rebound in trading.
Nothing is played. It must be feared, as around most of the important milestones in the relationship with Iran, revelations conveniently displayed on any aspect of the Iranian nuclear program, which spread alarm in the international public. He must fear the consequences of war from the shadows, like the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, whose specialty seems quite remote military applications.
The Iranian side, he must fear the provocative gestures familiar to Revolutionary Guards: publicized firings of missiles, covert operations in areas badly disturbed. It will finally fear the gross violations of human rights, which rightly disgusted Western public opinion. Yet, an early normalization of relations with Iran appear now more than ever, the best way to encourage and give opportunities to a company hostage to the conflict between Russia and the West.
It is not clear if the Islamic Republic will collapse or evolve into a system less acceptable to us. But thirty years of pressure and sanctions are able to reinforce the belief in and tense in his ways. We do not see very well the risk he would change, at least for a time, method and place, an attitude of openness, the challenge to open.
Francois Nicoullaud, former Ambassador of France in Iran
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