Sunday, January 16, 2011

The future president of France?

A few years ago, an American diplomat who knew him well described him thus: "It's probably the most able of the French Socialist leaders, but lacks the sacred fire to win." By then ran in May 2006 and Dominique Strauss-Kahn was preparing to go to the primaries to become the candidate of the French Socialist Party (PS) to compete with Nicolas Sarkozy for the presidency of the republic.

Lost. Moreover, it was battered by a surprise candidate, Ségolène Royal, which accounted for 60% of the vote in that primary (Strauss-Kahn won 20%, and Laurent Fabius, 18%). Indeed, DSK, as he is known in France, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, then the happy lacked fire. But many say the current director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already found that the opponent is seen as more secure, strong and beneficial to meet Nicolas Sarkozy in the next elections in 2012.

The polls, for many months, is confirmed. Political persona is preferred by the French, in all types of surveys and consultations. First example: In December delivery of a regular survey conducted by the weekly Le Nouvel Observateur, Strauss-Kahn swept to Sarkozy in a hypothetical presidential election by 63% versus 38%.

More than any leader of the Left, more than any other politician. Second, in a poll published Sunday in Le Journal du Dimanche following the anniversary of the death of François Mitterrand, the socialist political DSK best represents the legacy of the old president. Strauss-Khan did not attend the tribute paid to Mitterrand French socialism in the town where he was born and where he was buried, Jarnac, but that does not matter.

It seems that, wonder what you ask, Strauss-Kahn, who lives in Washington, who is not standing near France and which by reason of his office is prohibited from commenting on national politics, the winner always comes from afar. As I called a reporter several months ago, is a sort of "pervasive absent, owner of a vacuum that knows carryforwards.

Hence, some predict that DSK will become the leader of French socialism which will reinstall left at the Elysee, which does not happen, precisely, since Mitterrand abandoned the palace in 1995, after having taken 14 years. For that, first, should be imposed on the Socialist primary, elections who lost to Royal in 2006.

The address of PS, at a meeting last Tuesday, which was attended by the top brass of the party, except, of course, Strauss-Kahn, decided to schedule: everyone who wants to be a candidate must be submitted between 28 June and 13 July. And on 9 October, the French Socialist supporters, after paying one euro and sign a statement claiming to be leftist, by electing the candidate who will face Nicolas Sarkozy.

In theory, Strauss-Kahn will have three opponents with possibilities: the former first secretary of the PS, Martine Aubry, former first secretary, François Hollande and former presidential candidate Segolene Royal, Hollande's ex-wife and former winner of the primaries. So far, only Royal has taken the step and assured to be presented.

The other three, as three older gamblers on a long poker game, play, feints, groping and hide. Matter of political tactics and choosing the right time to launch the bet or fold. Especially in the case of Strauss-Kahn. To the extent that the big question in French politics for a year is just that: DSK will actually fee-paying, influential, internationally respected, perched on top of the world, to be presented with two choices, a primary and a presidential campaign and two harsh and unpredictable with the wind just for the polls? Dominique Strauss-Kahn was born in April 1949 in the wealthy town of Neuilly-sur-Seine, outside Paris, in a family of Jewish origin.

His academic resume: graduate of the School of Higher Studies in Commerce, Political Science, BA in Public Law and Professor of Economics. He admits Social Democrat, a supporter at a distance from Keynesian economic interventionism, was a deputy with 37 years and Minister of Industry and Commerce, with 42 in 1991, Pierre Beregovoy.

In 1997, following the unexpected victory of the left in the legislative elections, Lionel Jospin, his mentor in the PS, called to form a government, entrusted with the key post of Minister of Economy and Finance, where he fought against the government deficit-a endemic problem in France, privatized several key companies such as Air France and France Télécom, fought for France's entry into the euro, and opposed, unsuccessfully, to the working week of 35 hours, driven by the then Minister of Labour and now its hypothetical rival in the primaries, Martine Aubry.

It is elegant, broad-shouldered, square consignment. She loves technology and chess playing several hours most nights, often with anonymous opponents found on the Internet. Dilettante, seductive, womanizing, which has cost some serious disappointment, according to the book DSK. Les secrets d? A préssidentiable, written by a former partner who signed with the pseudonym of Cassandra, a warning from Sarkozy himself, before becoming the president of the International Monetary Fund: "Be careful: there are no jokes.

Avoid taking the elevator on your own with a fellow, you know. France can not afford a scandal. "Has been married for third time, his present wife Anne Sinclair is a famous television journalist, former star of TF1, and granddaughter inherited the vast fortune of the famous New York art dealer Paul Rosenberg.

She supported him -with money taken from the sale of a painting, when he embarked on the adventure of the primaries of 2006. There is capacity for discussion, is persuasive and formidable in debates. Fluent in English and German, is defended in Italian, Spanish and Arabic . Cassandra, in the book cited, he also describes as "ambitious, manipulative, pathological liar, chase skirts and extremely intelligent." However, in 2007, after Sarkozy won the Elysee, the French Socialist Party scrapped, no gave a penny for it.

It was then, paradoxically, appeared the opportunity of a lifetime: Rodrigo Rato resigned to his remaining years of tenure in DSK IMF and abroad found the ideal in to shelter while the storm of the French right had to dismantle the socialist positions. To his appointment was endorsed by then initial Luxembourg Prime Minister (and current president of the Eurogroup) Jean-Claude Juncker.

And with the express support of Sarkozy, he saw how one of his potential enemies in 2012 was neutralized in a gilded cage in Washington. On September 28, 2007, Strauss-Kahn became the IMF's managing director, a prestigious institution but then most certainly undervalued now. The principles were not easy.

The advice you gave Sarkozy on his private life was prescient: in October 2008 after his post was staggered to discover a relationship with an employee of the institution who accused him of abusing his position to take advantage of it. "It is a type of man who can not work with women under his command" in a letter assured the woman.

DSK apologized, suffered an internal investigation that inquired about their lives and from which he was exonerated, but knocked out. His wife forgave him in the pages of your blog so that public redemption Strauss-Kahn took effect. Again, nobody was hard for him. In parallel, triggered a global financial crisis that dragged all the parameters and collapsed all the economic indicators.

Taking advantage of his opportunity, Strauss-Kahn deftly maneuvered for the International Monetary Fund to become the reference institution of the G-20, the most influential group of countries in the world, including emerging states. Skirts the scandals are forgotten, and DSK known Keynesian tendency to inflate the institution, which in the beginning of the crisis calls for government intervention to curb the devastation of the storm.

In any case, the institution gains prestige, power and presence. And he built a solid reputation for jumping from crisis to crisis with determination and skill. Acquire world class leader, perhaps the sacred fire of the American diplomat who spoke and lacking in 2006. It becomes a kind of global firefighter, a month goes to a mortally wounded Greece, Ireland and the following standing with the hose ready pointing to Portugal or Spain.

Time magazine in 2010 places it among the ten most influential people in the world. At the same time, discussed with Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy heart to heart the ideals of European rescue fund to prevent further carnage. From 2009, ie the brunt of the crisis, his popularity in French opinion polls began to climb.

His team is forced to carry out a political balancing work, transform it into a sort of messiah, make does not lose interest on it in France without him displayed by the country or speak French policy issues. Have an advantage: distance benefits. François Hollande, first secretary of former socialist, one of his potential rivals in the primaries and an extremely smart and sharp political summed it up well a few weeks ago: "It's always popular is far." But it hurts too much distance, blend, make voters forget it.

As the crisis continues hurricane blowing its international presence in the heart is secure, but ... What if subsides? "You have to hold the coals to fall," claimed a few days ago a colleague of his in the weekly Le Point. Drag election two defects: the first is that their presence at the head of the IMF away from the left wing of the party that does not stop him as one more representative of global financial power.

In May, in an interview on France 2, said that 60 years who is retiring then the French should not be "any dogma." "The world is changing very fast," he added. His words seemed to agree more with Nicholas Sarkozy (who actually won in autumn retirement at 62 years) than their co-religionists.

That was one of the few times he referred to a French theme (although from the economic point of view) and the mess in which the IMF chief went into his own party was such that he was forced to call to ensure Martine Aubry his comment was not against it. The second of these defects election is his personal wealth and his penchant for show: earns 350,000 euros a year, his wife is a millionaire, owns a luxury apartment in the Place des Vosges, one of the most beautiful places in Paris and a residence in Marrakech.

Sarkozy himself, charged at a time to adopt ways of nouveau riche, he said, in one of those meals with members of his group in which loosens the tongue: "Next to DSK, I am a Trappist monk. My next watch of yours is a mess. " Many point to a ruthless campaign, this element will come out.

"Nicolas Sarkozy had to look up the bills of a wooden ladder when it was introduced. A campaign is a very special moment," claimed Le Express Interior Minister and personal friend of President, Brice Hortefeux, commenting on DSK possibilities, which he described, not without some mystery and some bad milk, as "big man with personal failings." Jean-Pierre Raffarin, former prime minister under President Jacques Chirac, however, aware of their potential: "He has extraordinary strength, as it is both in opposition and responsible position." His tenure at the helm of the IMF concluded in 2012.

Its mystery (is present? Not present?) Will be resolved soon. He sought to delay the schedule and to buy time, but the rest of the socialist leaders who met on Tuesday with his patent absence not compromised. Martine Aubry, whose relationship has gone through periods of hatred and recognized estimated, which was joined by an unwritten non-aggression was clear coming out of that meeting and gave key dates: July 13 is the last day to file candidacy in the primaries.

He added: "Dominique should drop and the stratosphere." So, before that day will clear the mystery and know if the loser character billed Sarkozy to Washington with a smile and the intention to neutralize some of forever returns to France become more formidable opponent.

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