Wednesday, April 20, 2011

In Burkina Faso, "a popular uprising is unlikely"

For three weeks, Burkina Faso is shaken by movements of anger, driven particularly by the army. Damien Glez, director of the satirical weekly Le Journal du Burkina Thursday, the dispute does not threaten the president Blaise Compaore, head of the country for twenty-four. What is complex is that these campaigns are very different claims.

The presidential guard has been raised for example by a history of housing allowance. But there are also students who demonstrated against police brutality after the death of one of them. Unions are on the warpath about the cost of living. And more generally, there is a weariness of a portion of the population that is tired of seeing the president still facing international issues, and very little interest in national issues.

In Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaore many see as more of a "super minister of foreign affairs" and as a president. Compaore is a very dumb in general. Playing the "sleeping" he has often succeeded. In thirteen years he has intervened in the form of speech twice. Its strategy is just to have beheaded all authorities: it has suspended all Chiefs of Staff and dissolved the government.

Then there is the sprinkling, by measures targeted at groups angry. But it is a reaction to very short term, nothing is done to address the underlying problems, particularly in the army. It is a surprising choice because Compaore has chosen not to appoint someone from the military. Tiao is a communicator: he was president of the equivalent of the CSA (Conseil Supérieur de l'Audiovisuel) in Burkina Faso, in recent years and was ambassador to France, so it also has a side diplomat.

Overall, it has a relatively neutral political image. He never participated in a campaign, was not elected. Strategically it is a good choice because the mutiny took issue with the symbols of the central government. Remains to be seen how he will be welcomed by the military. A popular uprising is unlikely.

The claims are so diverse that they can not clump together to make a revolution. There are a lot of anger against Blaise Compaore, a milestone was crossed in from the silence in the mutiny. Today, people are more afraid of Blaise Compaore. But the military has attacked civilians, looted shops, the soldiers made no move to collect a consistent and united front against the ruling regime.

Especially since the movement is very intellectual and urban. The mass electoral Compaore helped obtain 80% of the votes at the last election, often illiterate and manipulated by the gifts of all kinds, is not ready to switch to the challenge. Tomorrow, if there were an election, there would likely be that Compaore reelected.

Charlotte Chabas

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