Tuesday, March 15, 2011

The OECD estimates that the impact of the tragedy to be "much worse" than the Kobe earthquake

Of concern to the alarm and uncertainty in a panic. This has been the changes occurring in recent days the stock international reference to the possibility that the disaster in Japan lead to a nuclear crisis and have an economic impact worse than expected. In fact, the OECD, in a first analysis of events in the country, said today that the effects of the earthquake and tsunami could be much worse "than those caused by the earthquake in Kobe in 1995, the cost was about 100,000 million dollars but did not cause a contraction of its economy.

Although the area affected by last week's earthquake, measured in terms of their weight in gross domestic product (GDP) of Japan, between 6% and 7% - is more or less comparable to the injured by Kobe , "the disaster could be much worse," added the OECD. To justify this balance, remember that many factories have had to halt production, especially in the field of automobile manufacturing and electrical equipment and caused damage in nuclear power plants and those caused by power cuts power, more serious than 16 years ago.

However, the organization admits that the destruction is so great that you still can not make a total economic impact assessment. The fear that the central problems fester Fukushima has aggravated the massive sales of securities linked to this economic sector throughout the globe that has already occurred yesterday, but today the punishment has also been extended generally to entire equity, which exacerbated the stock falls.

By contrast, increased risk aversion has encouraged the search for values \u200b\u200bdenominated sovereign debt as a haven. The result of the spread of nuclear panic and chaos that is living in Japan, whose benchmark index, the Nikkei, has plummeted more than 10% and earn their two worst days since the bursting of the housing bubble in 1987, has resulted in significant falls in the European markets, where the index comprising its 300-FTSEurofirst 300 largest companies - has fallen into the lowest level since November.

By country, the German Dax, where industrial and energy companies, the hardest hit by doubts about the impact of the disaster and the nuclear alarm, heavy, has suffered the biggest decline among the floor of the old continent. Thus, after reaching nearly 5% yield has finished closing with a decline of 3% while the Paris Cac lost 2.12%, London and Madrid 1.1% 0.8% after falling more than 2.5% in the morning.

The reason that the Spanish selection has fallen less than the rest is that their banks, which have an important weight in the index, have maintained their positive tone yesterday by the EU agreed to the debt crisis. In New York, Wall Street started the session with a drop of 2% while the red has slowed to 1.33% at closing time in Europe, also weighed down by its industrial companies and General Electric in front of the numbers red.

According to analysts coincide in pointing out, if there were no nuclear crisis would not have recorded these crashes. "The mere notion of risk, not only in the financial markets but in general, is forcing investors to rethink their positions," Bloomberg said from Hong Kong to Sandeep Malhotra, director of fund manager Clariden Leu.

"Investors are putting in the worst possible scenario for, from there, going to recover," added Keith Bowman of Hargreaves Lansdown. When asked how far they fall, has no clear answer: "The situation is changing every hour, it is very difficult to predict where it will stop the fall, Bowman added, quoted by.

In the same vein, John J. Hardy, strategist Saxo Bank, believes the term that best describes what is happening is the "storm of panic," making it impossible to foresee what will happen next in the markets. By sector, sales have been fattened in the nuclear business and luxury sectors, as these Japanese companies have in some of its largest customers, and that they would sell 11% of its merchandise.

Behind the following regarding the intensity of punishment have been the energy, followed closely by industry, because what happened in China has led European governments to announce the revision of its nuclear programs and these companies are very exposed to what they choose from now. For their part, reinsurers have been extended for the third straight day of losses, albeit to a lesser extent than in previous days.

They are also now suffering the paper exit the market and increased risk aversion automakers, which had just drawn the attention of investors more risky and which are now forced to unwind their speculative positions in a rush. For this reason, large sector of the European wheel as BMW and Daimler AG are experiencing significant cuts.

Also weighs against the fear that the disaster could cut the supply of components needed for their cars and coming from Japan. On the opposite side, the increased risk aversion has driven the oil market speculators, which has led to a lowering of a barrel of Brent oil, a benchmark in Europe, $ 5.

With this cut, is down $ 110 for the first time in three weeks. Along with this factor has also influenced the price of crude estimates of the International Energy Agency that demand will be lower than expected, since Japan is the third largest oil importer in the world. However, to be seen whether longer-term lack of nuclear power will force them to increase consumption of this fuel to ensure supply, which offset a possible decrease in consumption by the economic slowdown that caused the earthquake.

Also has reduced the uranium, which analysts say will drop to 25% in the coming months. On the opposite side, coal has become more expensive in Europe because the shutdown of nuclear plants in Germany will increase the demand for fossil fuels in the Old Continent.

No comments:

Post a Comment