Monday, March 7, 2011

Libyan conflict will have negative impact on Mexico

The situation in Libya in a negative impact on Mexico by the increase in gasoline, and the geopolitical scene rewrites, again, the "Great Game" of interest in the UK and Russia, says the teacher Silvia Figueroa González, Monterrey Tec , campus Guadalajara. Professor Department of Communication and International Relations predicts that most affected by the situation so far is China .- The uncertainty surrounding the fate of the Gadhafi regime generates a severe concern about the impact on the price of oil.

Libya is part of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and is the ninth-largest exporter to represent 2% of world production. Has pipelines that carry crude oil across the Mediterranean to Italy, Germany and France, so that particularly the European Union (EU) is sensitive to the Libyan problem, apart from the wave of refugees who would be reaching on all the Italian islands.

Transnational oil companies are also affected. Italy's ENI made 15% of its operations from Libya and they have stalled. Companies repatriate their employees at the escalation of violence. The production of oil has fallen with the consequent rise in oil prices, despite the commitment of Saudi Arabia to increase its offer.

In Mexico, rising energy prices have negative impact as the country is affected to more expensive fuel imports .- It is possible that different tribal loyalties lead the country into civil war, so that the performance of agencies and international players will be the guardian of the balance.

United States and its companies have no stake in the profitable business of exploitation of hydrocarbons in Libya, so that a political realignment could benefit you, but which may affect trade with Libya China grew 30% in 2010. Libya has the human development index higher in the region, its GDP per capita is six times that of Egypt and his life expectancy is the highest.

The population is young and educated, and this could lead to an orderly transition to a less chaotic or aspire to stability in the medium term. The region is again dramatizes the "great game" of the nineteenth century when it confronted the interests of the Russian Empire and British. Again, the powers of Europe, America and Asia are seeking to protect or to place their interests in a region of the world's great geopolitical importance.

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