Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Power struggle in Egypt: Diplomat against despot

Egypt's rebellious opposition seizes power. They also agreed on Mohamed ElBaradei as a leader? The Nobel laureate will try to form a government of national unity. But even President Mubarak is not chased out of office. Mohamed ElBaradei, longtime head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Nobel Peace Prize was trying, in the evening to make history.

For years he has positioned himself as a possible spearhead of the opposition, now he was on the "Liberation Square in the heart of Cairo, the center of raging for nearly a week of unrest, demonstrators outside the tens of thousands. "What we have reached can not turn back anymore," he shouted to the crowd.

The system was run-down, Mubarak should resign immediately. And then he said press reports that a sentence that has a potentially great significance: "I have been commissioned by the political forces to form a government of national unity." According to some reports, he added that he had the mandate to speak with the military - currently the major force on Cairo's streets.

The problem is that ElBaradei had only a megaphone for his speech made available - not enough to reach tens of thousands. Not enough to ever be fully understood. On the other hand, reported the demonstration participants that were representative of the influential Muslim Brotherhood ElBaradei page.

A few hours earlier there had been reports indicating that the Islamist organization after some hesitation, also now requires the abdication Mubarak. This is a significant step. So far, the Muslim Brotherhood had kept covered and the mass demonstrations not officially participated, even if some members mitdemonstrierten well.

If all agree these messages, the entire range of Egyptian opposition Mohamed ElBaradei had found a spearhead - he had always said he was ready for this role should the Egyptians antrĂ¼gen him. On the other hand, is completely unclear what this alleged agreement is worth, since Hosni Mubarak is obviously not willing to be out of power.

So far he has tried to ride out the rebellion and to placate the discontented in Egypt with countless lame reform promises and cosmetic appointments to the government. The masses on the street laughing. But the fact remains that Mubarak holds the power in their hands. But how much exactly, is unclear.

If the army completely on his side? Or it can be based only on the presidential guard eingeschwne on him? On Sunday afternoon, suddenly flew fighter jets flying low over the "Liberation Square, deafening noise filled the center of the capital. It was an attempt at intimidation. But judged by whom and to whom? "I have no idea what it should," said one participant in the demonstration insecure.

"If it was a signal, I did not understand it." Neither the army nor the presidential guard tried anyway and then to dissolve the mass demonstration - even with the current curfew. ElBaradei's supporters are convinced he has what it takes to lead the opposition. "Tunisia is a small country, like a hare," said Abd al-Rahman Yusuf, until December 2010 a spokesman for the organization of supporters ElBaradei, "Egypt, however, is an elephant.

And Mohamed ElBaradei can perform this elephant." But not all the protesters see it. ElBaradei, opera lovers and golfers, has spent the past decade, almost entirely abroad. They fear that he lacks the credibility to lead the opposition. As ElBaradei flew in last Thursday from Vienna to Cairo, as he expected just a dozen followers.

A year earlier, when he had found a candidate against Mubarak in view, he was celebrated by hundreds. Every little boy who was in the last few days on the road, has more right to be president, teased a daily newspaper on the day of the botched return. On the other hand, it has a lot to make up for.

His interviews would be better to say not just followers. In the past two days he was able to score with the fact that he attacked the United States that they are not allowed Mubarak and the revolt only lukewarm support. "He weighs up well when he says something," says Iman Abdul Manam, a demonstrator who ElBaradei urged for years.

The fact is that ElBaradei had the best chance to reach an agreement with the Muslim Brotherhood. You accept it. The other important forces of the opposition to keep the career diplomats as well, at least suitable to moderate a transition. He is urbane, internationally known and is regarded as decidedly unkorrupt.

Despite all that may speak for him: As long as Mubarak clings stubbornly to power, is completely open, as the duel of the diplomat posed against the despot. Nothing has been decided in Cairo. But the scenarios are a little clearer.

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