Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Libya: what role for siblings Gaddafi?

Sunday, February 20 evening, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, second son of Colonel, spoke on the waves of the Libyan state television. In the heart of a revolt whose size is growing every day, he said the regime of his father's "fight to the end" to suppress dissent. This intervention of the son, rather than the father, is not a coincidence, said Barah Mikail, research director at the Foundation for International Relations and external dialogue.

"Muammar Gaddafi avoids repeating the error of his peers Tunisian and Egyptian outgoing," he says. "Ben Ali and Mubarak, intervening on television by themselves, had only served to exacerbate their own cases. The Libyan leader prefers to use its share to a fuse which he wishes that he will resist." "Saif al-Islam has always been the diplomatic face of the regime," said Hasni Abidi, director of the Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World (CERMAM) in Geneva.

"Gaddafi has always put forward to praise the 'new Libya', young and open." But this time the tone of one who has always worked his image as a reformer and was threatening farm. "One would have expected an apology, says Habib Hasni. But in times of crisis, the family has tightened ranks.

Gaddafi's son has also appeared very tense, reflecting the panic that has shaken the government. He completely missed the exit. "Barah Mikail, however it recognizes a certain capacity for analysis:" There is a point where he is right: the sociopolitical nature of Libya itself aggregate initial three provinces covered by the original Tribal factor, makes its national cohesion much more fragile than in the case of Tunisian and Egyptian neighbors.

"Like the rest of the country, the Gaddafi family is deeply divided. Saif Al-Islam brings fringe" moderate "of power . Delphine Perrin, a researcher at Carim (European University Institute in Florence) and a research associate at the IREMAM, said that he had placed such a reformer at the head of the national oil company under his control.

"Another example is its role on the freedom of the press (...), as it created newspapers and private radio channels contrast with the official jargon - but who mostly use vis-à-vis other countries " , "she continues. Almost all of the eight children of Supreme hold positions in varying degrees in the system" Gaddafi ".

Mutassim Billah Gadhafi, fourth son of the Supreme Leader, also embodies the opening to the West but also an uncompromising repression. "He who receives U.S. officials during their visits to Libya" said Hasni Abidi. "It is officially advisor for security affairs, and is very feared in the country.

He is the head of a brigade tasked with protecting the regime, and remains very close to the 'gatekeepers' of Libya's Revolutionary Committees. "Two other son of Muammar Gadhafi were among the representatives of a class of even harsher Libyan political landscape. Saadi, a former professional footballer, according to several sources is responsible for subduing the riots in Benghazi, while Khamis, army officer, is head of a special brigade responsible for security of his father.

Finally The eldest sibling, Mohamed, is the head of the telecommunications network of the country, after a time played the role of his father's eventual successor. Between them, the brothers themselves as rivals, but the higher voltage between old Saif al-Islam and Mutassim Billah. The first is, according Barah Mikail, a "follower of dialogue and forgiveness," when the second advocates a "punishment expeditions".

In this context, the supreme leader has cleverly played a role of balance, favoring in turn Saif or Mutassim, who both claim to his inheritance. The unifying role of the father helped the family and thus to some extent in the scheme, remain firmly entrenched in power for over 40. The situation is particularly volatile and difficult to predict the role that each child will Muammar Gaddafi to play in the coming days.

Hasni Abidi, however believes that if the Libyan Supreme Leader was asked to leave power, none of his son will be required to take power: "Because of their name, of course, but because none has returned to question the legitimacy of their father during all these years. " Vincent Matalon

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