Monday, January 31, 2011

Israel worried by the consequences of the revolt in Egypt:

For 33 years, the peace with Egypt a guarantee for the security of Israel. The unrest in neighboring Jerusalem prepare therefore greatest worry: What if the regime falls, and take the anti-Israel Muslim brothers at the Nile to power? The fear speaks from the headlines: "Concerned about the peace", says the Israeli tabloid, "Maariv said on Sunday.

The competition, "Yedioth Ahronoth" FUNCTION does that "peace is in danger". "We are on our own," a commentator stresses in the same leaf, the doomsday scenario, Israel has taken: During the demonstrators in Egypt around the globe a wave of sympathy strikes, the revolt was triggered by the Nile in Israel's largest concern.


At the start of his weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke the first time the silence of his government to the events in Israel's neighboring country. Jerusalem the riots follow with great attention. "Our goal is to maintain stability and ensure that peace between us and Egypt will remain at each development," said Netanyahu in the first and probably last VRST official statement on the unrest.

Media reports that Netanyahu has instructed his ministers to comment because of the great sensitivity of the issue not go to Egypt. Israel in those days just before the fear of what millions of people long for the Nile: free elections in Egypt. imagine this could catapult the regime of Mubarak suppressed radical Muslim Brotherhood to power, the nightmare, the Israeli journalists in bright colors.

If the previously banned Islamist Nile take the helm, it was a disaster for Israel, but soon, the analysts agreed. The intentions of the demonstrators in Cairo, be sure only the best, Nahum Barnea, Israel's most prominent columnist wrote in the Yedioth ". "The problem with good intentions is that they are in the Middle East often pave the way to hell." "We have to assume that the days of the Mubarak regime are numbered," analyzed Schaked Eli, Israel's former ambassador to Egypt, also in the "Yedioth".

After his overthrow and the establishment of a transitional government would be held probably in a few months of free elections. The most likely outcome is that the Muslim Brotherhood gained a majority and would be the strongest force in the next government. Then it was only a matter of time, damage to Israel's peace with Egypt, the diplomat said.

In 1979 concluded peace with Egypt is the Israelis still regarded as one of its biggest foreign policy successes. With it neutralized the Israeli government's largest and most dangerous enemy and rest assured of its long southern border. Israel freed so the military capacity to keep the occupied West Bank and to conduct its wars.

The Camp David agreement is therefore a key cornerstone of Israeli security policy in the region. Should it be terminated, the Israeli army would have to completely restructure the Israeli security policy set up from scratch. Israel would be in fact a hostile government in Cairo to power, Israel would lose its most important Arab partners, Israeli analysts warn.

"This can trigger a domino effect," said Yoni Ben Menachem, the "Voice of America". If the regime falls in Egypt, Jordan could follow. "If that happens, there is a strategic change in the Middle East that is not Israel's favor," said Ben-Menachem. Jordan was in 1994 and had followed the example of Egypt's peace with Israel.

The Israeli security circles have been surprised by the rapid developments on the Nile, to represent the Israeli newspapers are in agreement. Even in early January had agents of foreign secret service Mossad assured journalists in various briefings, the regime in Cairo could not tip. "Nobody was prepared for another possibility.

Just as no one was prepared, when the Shah fell in Iran, the Soviet Union collapsed, or Hamas for power in the Gaza Strip seized, "security analyst Alex Fishman wrote in the Yedioth". The fear of the future, the Israeli Kommentatn united in their demands to the Israeli leadership are split them.

The looming fall Husni Mubarak should be avoided at all costs, demands such as Fishman. Jerusalem is obliged to provide at least passive support to get the ailing regime alive. when Egyptian security forces in the would have to close the border with Israel to advance in order to suppress riots, Israel would permit, predicts Fishman.

The peace accords at Camp David saw admittedly, for a demilitarized zone along the border, "but Israel will not prevent Egypt because the tanks and troops . to send it takes "to seem other journalists already to have resigned on the Nile with the new realities: Israel must now be confident that the crisis is a stable government bring to power, which would adhere to the recent foreign policy of Egypt, writes Nahum Barnea of Yedioth.

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