- Avoiding the capture will be the highest priority for the central leadership of Al Qaeda in the border area between Afghanistan and Pakistan after the United States potentially vital intelligence obtained during the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. The delicate task of choosing a replacement for the founder and inspirational figure in the group, much less to avenge his death, are challenges that may have to wait.
If and when the 20 commanders feel that their security is adequately safeguarded, the group can begin to assess the loss of bin Laden, to agree a new boss and renew ties with allies and members of the group. The picture, from his perspective is bleak. Even before the death of bin Laden, largely peaceful revolt against Arab despots had made the path of violence of Al Qaeda seems even less relevant.
"The Central de Al Qaeda continue, as a zombie, causing chaos, but will never be the same," wrote Thomas Hegghammer, a fellow at the Center for Research Establishment of the Norwegian Defence. "Bin Laden (...) was the driving force behind the organization and much of it has died with him," she said.
And avenge his death, in the short term will work best be delegated to the tiny but passionate global community of supporters of Al Qaeda, counterterrorism experts say. But the immediate task will simply be to protect life and liberty, to assess what new dangers have been created by the collection of intelligence during the raid at the home of bin Laden.
In Washington, a U.S. national security source confirmed that forensic specialists were among U.S. forces killed bin Laden and that large quantities of intelligence was collected. Leah Farrall, an analyst at contaterrorismo former senior Australian Federal Police, said security would dominate the thinking of the core of Al Qaeda based in South Asia in the short term.
"His leadership will hide and close ranks as they try to protect themselves and determine the level of damage to their channels of communication and other safety items," he wrote in a blog. "It is unlikely that Al Qaeda operating loss in a hasty retaliation. Inciting others to do so, but their own efforts will follow, 'he added.
U.S. officials said their forces were led to the three-story residence north of Islamabad, after more than four years to track down one of the messengers in which bin Laden's most trusted, who was identified by men captured after the Sept. 11 attacks September. It is likely that the messenger is touched by the web experts to distribute statements from Al Qaeda to the world, according to U.S.
expert on militant propaganda Laura Mansfield. These contacts could have allowed American spies track down other messengers in contact with leaders of Al Qaeda's second in command after bin Laden, the veteran Egyptian militant Ayman al-Zawahiri. "The core of Al Qaeda will be even more dangerous after this," said Richard Barrett, a United Nations official who monitors Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
"If the messengers led the U.S. to bin Laden, that leaves little if any sure way to maintain contact with the outside world," he added. At the same time, wrote Barrett, Al Qaeda knew it was relevant to show a period of great change in the Arab world. "The timing is not good for them. They should also ensure they are not left out in talks with the Pakistanis, or even the Afghan / American in Afghanistan," he said.
Even when the situation stabilizes and Al Qaeda operatives have succeeded in strengthening its security, the task of electing a successor to affect the internal politics of the group. Zawahiri is widely expected to take the lead, at least on an interim basis, but has the disadvantage of loading a reputation for inflexibility and narrow-mindedness and not widely popular.
The author Steve Coll wrote in a New York magazine that Zawahiri had a history of alienating colleagues. "Bin Laden was a gentle and strong communicator, but somewhat inconsistent in their thinking. Zawahiri is dogmatic and fighter," he wrote. Intelligence consultancy based in London Exclusive Analysis predicts "a self-destructive battle for the succession" within Al-Qaeda, which has never had to face a series for maximum leader since it was founded around 1988.
He said the bold subsidiary of the Yemen-based group, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP, for its acronym in English), was allied with the better position to take strategic leadership and planning to mount attacks after daring and technically plots sophisticated anti-Western. Jarrett Brachman, a leading U.S.
analyst on Al Qaeda, which advises the U.S. government agreed that the death of Bin Laden gave an opening now for several men to achieve prominence. "There are two young-Attiyatallah Libyans and Abu Yahya al-Libi, who have been positioning themselves to take charge.? The Libyans show deference to Zawahiri," he asked.
Other potential candidates include Saif al-Adel, a former Egyptian military commander of Al Qaeda, and Nasser al-Wuhayshi, AQAP Yemeni leader and former personal secretary to bin Laden. Barrett suggested that Zawahiri was not leadership material. "I believe that Ayman al-Zawahiri will take over in the short term," he told Reuters.
"But I doubt that someone has confidence in his leadership abilities, and I imagine that others will want to bloody fame and glory, to lead the movement," he said. 
If and when the 20 commanders feel that their security is adequately safeguarded, the group can begin to assess the loss of bin Laden, to agree a new boss and renew ties with allies and members of the group. The picture, from his perspective is bleak. Even before the death of bin Laden, largely peaceful revolt against Arab despots had made the path of violence of Al Qaeda seems even less relevant.
"The Central de Al Qaeda continue, as a zombie, causing chaos, but will never be the same," wrote Thomas Hegghammer, a fellow at the Center for Research Establishment of the Norwegian Defence. "Bin Laden (...) was the driving force behind the organization and much of it has died with him," she said.
And avenge his death, in the short term will work best be delegated to the tiny but passionate global community of supporters of Al Qaeda, counterterrorism experts say. But the immediate task will simply be to protect life and liberty, to assess what new dangers have been created by the collection of intelligence during the raid at the home of bin Laden.
In Washington, a U.S. national security source confirmed that forensic specialists were among U.S. forces killed bin Laden and that large quantities of intelligence was collected. Leah Farrall, an analyst at contaterrorismo former senior Australian Federal Police, said security would dominate the thinking of the core of Al Qaeda based in South Asia in the short term.
"His leadership will hide and close ranks as they try to protect themselves and determine the level of damage to their channels of communication and other safety items," he wrote in a blog. "It is unlikely that Al Qaeda operating loss in a hasty retaliation. Inciting others to do so, but their own efforts will follow, 'he added.
U.S. officials said their forces were led to the three-story residence north of Islamabad, after more than four years to track down one of the messengers in which bin Laden's most trusted, who was identified by men captured after the Sept. 11 attacks September. It is likely that the messenger is touched by the web experts to distribute statements from Al Qaeda to the world, according to U.S.
expert on militant propaganda Laura Mansfield. These contacts could have allowed American spies track down other messengers in contact with leaders of Al Qaeda's second in command after bin Laden, the veteran Egyptian militant Ayman al-Zawahiri. "The core of Al Qaeda will be even more dangerous after this," said Richard Barrett, a United Nations official who monitors Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
"If the messengers led the U.S. to bin Laden, that leaves little if any sure way to maintain contact with the outside world," he added. At the same time, wrote Barrett, Al Qaeda knew it was relevant to show a period of great change in the Arab world. "The timing is not good for them. They should also ensure they are not left out in talks with the Pakistanis, or even the Afghan / American in Afghanistan," he said.
Even when the situation stabilizes and Al Qaeda operatives have succeeded in strengthening its security, the task of electing a successor to affect the internal politics of the group. Zawahiri is widely expected to take the lead, at least on an interim basis, but has the disadvantage of loading a reputation for inflexibility and narrow-mindedness and not widely popular.
The author Steve Coll wrote in a New York magazine that Zawahiri had a history of alienating colleagues. "Bin Laden was a gentle and strong communicator, but somewhat inconsistent in their thinking. Zawahiri is dogmatic and fighter," he wrote. Intelligence consultancy based in London Exclusive Analysis predicts "a self-destructive battle for the succession" within Al-Qaeda, which has never had to face a series for maximum leader since it was founded around 1988.
He said the bold subsidiary of the Yemen-based group, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP, for its acronym in English), was allied with the better position to take strategic leadership and planning to mount attacks after daring and technically plots sophisticated anti-Western. Jarrett Brachman, a leading U.S.
analyst on Al Qaeda, which advises the U.S. government agreed that the death of Bin Laden gave an opening now for several men to achieve prominence. "There are two young-Attiyatallah Libyans and Abu Yahya al-Libi, who have been positioning themselves to take charge.? The Libyans show deference to Zawahiri," he asked.
Other potential candidates include Saif al-Adel, a former Egyptian military commander of Al Qaeda, and Nasser al-Wuhayshi, AQAP Yemeni leader and former personal secretary to bin Laden. Barrett suggested that Zawahiri was not leadership material. "I believe that Ayman al-Zawahiri will take over in the short term," he told Reuters.
"But I doubt that someone has confidence in his leadership abilities, and I imagine that others will want to bloody fame and glory, to lead the movement," he said.
- Top 5 Al Qaeda-linked militants Pakistan has captured (03/05/2011)
- Al Qaeda's Popularity Drops In Mideast (03/05/2011)
- Experts Tell Spitzer Ayman al-Zawahiri Will Take Over Al Qaeda Despite Being 'A Terrible Manager' (03/05/2011)
- Special to No Silence Here: What's next? (03/05/2011)
- Al Qaeda assassin worked for British Special Forces (03/05/2011)
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