Tuesday, April 5, 2011

.- Fitch raised Brazil by one notch the 'rating' of Brazil, to 'BBB' by its strong growth

NEW YORK, April 5. The credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised by one notch the 'rating' of Brazilian sovereign debt to long term, from 'BBB-' to 'BBB' with stable outlook, by the strong growth of its economy and signs of "greater fiscal austerity" of the new Government of Dilma Rousseff. The agency explained that the improved rating reflects that in its analysis, the sustained growth potential of the Brazilian economy has increased to between 4% and 5%, supporting its medium-term fiscal objectives, as well as strengthening liquidity position, which in turn has raised the country's capacity to absorb any impact on its economy.

In this regard, Fitch notes that the arrival of Dilma Rousseff as President of Brazil has carried out "smoothly" and stressed that consensus on macroeconomic policy makers is still well anchored. In addition, stressed that the new administration has shown signs of greater fiscal austerity, which, coupled with positive growth prospects, should reduce the heavy burden of high debt from the Brazilian government.

Regarding the growth of the country, remember that the Brazilian economy has expanded at levels "historically high" in 2010, when GDP rose by 7.5%. Thus, the agency's baseline scenario assumes that the macroeconomic policy adjustment that is underway should allow a "soft landing" of the Brazilian economy, with growth of around 4% in 2011.

"The growth trajectory of Brazil in the medium term is likely to remain relatively robust because of the dynamics of domestic demand, which is based on the country's economic diversity, a large middle class and growing and a positive investment cycle "as responsible for Fitch's ratings for show due America.

However, the Brazilian economy also faces short-term macroeconomic challenges, including the fight against inflation and moderation in the pace of credit growth to more sustainable levels. In his view, a faster adjustment of fiscal policy generally improve its relationship with monetary policy, while easing the appreciation of its currency and upward pressure on interest rates.

For future revisions of the 'rating', Fitch said it would be good a "steady improvement" in the fiscal and external balance, a continued consolidation of macroeconomic stability and reforms to improve competitiveness and to address structural weaknesses in the financial public. By contrast, a sharp increase in public debt could undermine their solvency.

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