Tuesday, February 1, 2011

The other side of the revolution back on the scene Islamic parties

Egypt is in revolt. A nothing is worth the effort to Mubarak to change everything so that nothing will change. Little is served to appoint a new government, Suleiman Shafiq vice president and premier. Under the request for resignation of the man who ruled the country for thirty years, the protest spreads.

Turning his hand to the army, Mubarak pointed to introduce themselves to the United States as the only element of continuity as possible in a transition that may become land-based. The specter of political Islam is always for a spirit which ensured U.S. support to Saddam well before September 11.

After 1981, Egypt has assumed the role as a model of restraint by Islamist inclusion sull'interdizione-based repression of the Muslim Brotherhood from the political scene and an iron fist against the radicals who challenged, as well as the "wicked regime" The Brotherhood's gradualist choice.

A move that prevented Islamists from politics but allowed them to act in the social field of education and religious welfare. At least until, as a result of that act of re-Islamization from below, their political clout grew. In many Western governments, but also in the labyrinth of power in the Middle East, the major concern right now about the Brotherhood, a religious association as well as mass political party, the only organized force and geographically widespread in the Egyptian landscape, led by a management that are very influential representatives of the religious middle class that controls the years of professional doctors, lawyers, engineers.

Disposed to an alliance with secular parties and leftist who raises free elections, which resulted in recent years in the sign of opposition Kifaya. But the Brothers are not the hub of a rebellion that even after the old Tunisian, was also surprised by their leaders. A demonstration of their tactical ability, but also the knowledge that they did not instigate the protest, they now give their investiture as provisional leader of the opposition in charge of negotiating the transition process, El Baradei addressed the banks of the Nile as that of "jasmine", is the daughter of the population bomb, the spread of education, communicative power of the Net and TV like Al Jazeera, which is no coincidence that the old and the new government of Egypt have, with varying success, wanted "off".

A protest erupted among the young unemployed, seeking work, freedom and dignity, rather than an Islamic state. Young people prefer social networks to the speeches of Hassan al-Banna, the historical founder of the Brothers, and knocking at the entrance, denied, of modernity rather than to the door of the mosque.

As already addressed in Tunisia, and before that at that moment, failure, Iranian, what is striking is the "spontaneity" that has made the protest the stronger and unexpected in police states which have proved blind. But this spontaneity is an inherent limit. If the old oppositions have not understood that the volcano was about to erupt, revealing little tune with young people who do not know what to do with political and ideological recipes, new generations can not yet express a leading role.

Upset but still do not know what to build. The same thing could happen in Tunisia, where he returned from a long exile Rachid Gannouchi, the founder of "An Nahda, the formation of ancient chain of the Brotherhood, which today looks turkish AKP as the ideal. A test is also difficult for the U.S., the role of Islamist parties neotraditionalist, with which in recent years have spurned all contacts: avoiding confusing them with the radicals of Al Qaeda involved in combating them accusing them of being a sort of " Islamic revisionists.

" At the time of exportation of democracy by military force, the Bush administration did not think, as some neocons believed illusion, to demobilize that should also be the leaders of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Today in un'eterogenesi ends that has the flavor of a prophetic nemesis, the possibility is real, at least in the shadow of the Pyramids.

But democracy means free competition for all, including for potential enemies of democracy. If, in the name of realpolitik and the protection of all-out geopolitical processes of democratization were hibernating, the future would be even more problematic and uncertain turbulent present.

After a first conditioned reflex, the White House has understood this and Obama reiterated his original inspiration, never against the people who call for an end to authoritarian regimes. The challenge is difficult, but the alternative is for the explosion of new infection inevitably anti-American riots.

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