After the "day of rage", the situation in Libya is more tense than ever. Antoine Vitkine, journalist, has produced the documentary "Gaddafi, our greatest enemy", aired on France 5 in March. This 90-minute film recounts 40 years of diplomatic relations between the West and the Libyan leader's past status as public enemy number one as an individual person creep.
In the case of Libya, it will probably happen very differently. Westerners have little effect of leverage on the regime. This is due to several reasons. First, Libya has substantial oil resources, as its reserves are estimated between 30 and 40 billion barrels, which are 85% sold in Europe.
In 2008, for example, it received 136 billion dollars of oil revenues. The authority has also announced plans to spend $ 30 billion to modernize its infrastructure, which is a tantalizing market for Westerners, who also provide the regime with arms. It is clear that European countries, and Americans will think twice before making statements that might displease Tripoli.
Moreover, since September 11, 2001, the West works closely with Gaddafi on the issue of combating terrorism, especially in the case of Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), but also in terms of migration policy. In both cases, Westerners need the cooperation or at least the goodwill of Tripoli.
Finally, Gaddafi did not put all your eggs in one basket. Unlike Egypt, which had a relationship of dependency vis-à-vis the United States, Gaddafi has established trusted relationships with many countries, be they European, Asian, or American. This strategy is to avoid depend only a single power, dates from the late 1990s.
If, as they remain the major power in the Middle East. However, Gaddafi has an agreement with Washington in 2003 in which he undertook on two points: the end of support for terrorism, and especially to stop its program of weapons of mass destruction. In return, the U.S. would not call for regime change in Libya.
Skip this agreement at the time was essential for George Bush and Tony Blair: they were committed in Iraq through the pretext of weapons of mass destruction that did not exist. Gaddafi has allowed them to show the international community that some dictators actually had a nuclear program, and wrote them off.
Today, the United States are still constrained by the agreement, and may not manifest itself as clearly as in Egypt. In addition, Muammar Gaddafi is - for now - not as a destabilized internally that were Ben Ali and Mubarak. Bet on his downfall is risky for the West. Yes. Gaddafi has spent the last thirty years to cope with attempts at destabilization.
Contrary to Ben Ali and Mubarak, entrenched in power, Muammar Gaddafi is a machine to survive politically. In the 1990s, riots were very frequent in the Benghazi region [which is currently the focus of the dispute]. He drew a lot of experience in law enforcement. Not necessarily, because the situation has changed.
Gaddafi was much weakened at the time than it is today. In 1996, there were 1200 deaths in Abu Salim, let us remember. Punishment today will be fierce, but Qaddafi is, for now, less than he was cornered. This is easily explained: due to the normalization of relations with the West, Libya was able to get rich by selling its oil.
Now, Gadhafi has sufficient funds to buy social peace. During the revolts of the 1990s, he did not have this leverage point, and was much more worried than it is today. Thursday evening, he marched among his supporters in Tripoli. He could not afford at the time. His rapprochement with Western powers was also accused by protesters of Benghazi, which are very conservative.
As such, it is important to note that the "Day of Wrath" held Thursday, February 17th was also the anniversary of the attack against the Consulate of Italy at the cartoons of Mohammed. This is not innocent. Yes, because despite his speech, which is to say that it is the "guide" the country and his government played leading roles, it remains the Libya's strongman.
Although he never confessed, he has been ill in recent years. This led him to be out of business and delegate part of his power to his government. Today, it seems to be in better health and has resumed her hand. But the evolution of his health will be crucial in how he will face the current movement.
This is even more critical that the Libyan authorities is particularly unstructured. Gaddafi assoit indeed its influence on its ability to manage the tribes and the tendencies. The protest is also included by tribal and regional prism. He recently sent to the heads of tribes from their message: "Control your kids!" Even within the state, Gaddafi is based on alternating currents moderates and radicals, each grouped around one of his son.
He played for years to ride against each other to establish its authority. The state apparatus is divided again quite different from what we saw with Ben Ali and Mubarak. Health Muammar Gaddafi will depend on its ability to overcome divisions between clans. Especially as the various clans that make up the Libyan authorities are certainly trying to use unrest in Cyrenaica to advance their pawns: the "moderates" to defend the utility line reformer, the "hard" to advocate for increased repression and a closure plan.
Interview by Vincent Matalon 
In the case of Libya, it will probably happen very differently. Westerners have little effect of leverage on the regime. This is due to several reasons. First, Libya has substantial oil resources, as its reserves are estimated between 30 and 40 billion barrels, which are 85% sold in Europe.
In 2008, for example, it received 136 billion dollars of oil revenues. The authority has also announced plans to spend $ 30 billion to modernize its infrastructure, which is a tantalizing market for Westerners, who also provide the regime with arms. It is clear that European countries, and Americans will think twice before making statements that might displease Tripoli.
Moreover, since September 11, 2001, the West works closely with Gaddafi on the issue of combating terrorism, especially in the case of Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), but also in terms of migration policy. In both cases, Westerners need the cooperation or at least the goodwill of Tripoli.
Finally, Gaddafi did not put all your eggs in one basket. Unlike Egypt, which had a relationship of dependency vis-à-vis the United States, Gaddafi has established trusted relationships with many countries, be they European, Asian, or American. This strategy is to avoid depend only a single power, dates from the late 1990s.
If, as they remain the major power in the Middle East. However, Gaddafi has an agreement with Washington in 2003 in which he undertook on two points: the end of support for terrorism, and especially to stop its program of weapons of mass destruction. In return, the U.S. would not call for regime change in Libya.
Skip this agreement at the time was essential for George Bush and Tony Blair: they were committed in Iraq through the pretext of weapons of mass destruction that did not exist. Gaddafi has allowed them to show the international community that some dictators actually had a nuclear program, and wrote them off.
Today, the United States are still constrained by the agreement, and may not manifest itself as clearly as in Egypt. In addition, Muammar Gaddafi is - for now - not as a destabilized internally that were Ben Ali and Mubarak. Bet on his downfall is risky for the West. Yes. Gaddafi has spent the last thirty years to cope with attempts at destabilization.
Contrary to Ben Ali and Mubarak, entrenched in power, Muammar Gaddafi is a machine to survive politically. In the 1990s, riots were very frequent in the Benghazi region [which is currently the focus of the dispute]. He drew a lot of experience in law enforcement. Not necessarily, because the situation has changed.
Gaddafi was much weakened at the time than it is today. In 1996, there were 1200 deaths in Abu Salim, let us remember. Punishment today will be fierce, but Qaddafi is, for now, less than he was cornered. This is easily explained: due to the normalization of relations with the West, Libya was able to get rich by selling its oil.
Now, Gadhafi has sufficient funds to buy social peace. During the revolts of the 1990s, he did not have this leverage point, and was much more worried than it is today. Thursday evening, he marched among his supporters in Tripoli. He could not afford at the time. His rapprochement with Western powers was also accused by protesters of Benghazi, which are very conservative.
As such, it is important to note that the "Day of Wrath" held Thursday, February 17th was also the anniversary of the attack against the Consulate of Italy at the cartoons of Mohammed. This is not innocent. Yes, because despite his speech, which is to say that it is the "guide" the country and his government played leading roles, it remains the Libya's strongman.
Although he never confessed, he has been ill in recent years. This led him to be out of business and delegate part of his power to his government. Today, it seems to be in better health and has resumed her hand. But the evolution of his health will be crucial in how he will face the current movement.
This is even more critical that the Libyan authorities is particularly unstructured. Gaddafi assoit indeed its influence on its ability to manage the tribes and the tendencies. The protest is also included by tribal and regional prism. He recently sent to the heads of tribes from their message: "Control your kids!" Even within the state, Gaddafi is based on alternating currents moderates and radicals, each grouped around one of his son.
He played for years to ride against each other to establish its authority. The state apparatus is divided again quite different from what we saw with Ben Ali and Mubarak. Health Muammar Gaddafi will depend on its ability to overcome divisions between clans. Especially as the various clans that make up the Libyan authorities are certainly trying to use unrest in Cyrenaica to advance their pawns: the "moderates" to defend the utility line reformer, the "hard" to advocate for increased repression and a closure plan.
Interview by Vincent Matalon
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- Libyan regime hits back with deadly crackdown - AFP (19/02/2011)
- Bahrain protesters swarm square, police flee (19/02/2011)
- Kadhafi never without 'voluptuous' nurse: leaked US files (28/11/2010)
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