After the revolutions of Tunisia and Egypt, the possible "springtime of the Arab peoples" is now all eyes turn to Algeria, which also seems to know a protest movement: a march of the opposition, Saturday, February 12, collected between 2000 and 3000 people, according to the counting of journalists and organizers.
Mobilizing the opposition calls to continue with another march Saturday, February 19. But according to experts, this opposition is an illusion: his weakness and lack of credibility could make it difficult for a real change in Algeria. Selma Belaala, researcher expert on Islamist movements at the University of Warwick (United Kingdom), all opposition parties have been discredited: "Algeria is sorely lacking in opposition (...).
The population is without representative, without political organization able to take over a message of protest. " Above all, the people can believe in parties that are opposed to "has compromised with the regime and has aged terribly," says the researcher. Originally the march of 12 and 19 February, the National Coordination for Change and Democracy (NCCD), founded after the riots in January that killed 5 people and injured over 800.
This coordination requires "system change" etregroupe organizations of civil society, trade unions unofficial league of human rights and a political party, the Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD). However, for Selma Belaala, the RCD leader, Said Sadi, "has more credibility because he has associated with power" and that "therefore confuses the credibility of the opposition." Lahouari Addi, a sociology professor specializing in the Maghreb at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Lyon, also believes that the party plays an ambiguous role: "In [his] claims, [the DRC request] especially the departure of Bouteflika, without insist on the departure of the military system.
This ambiguous position explains why the population does not follow, "he says. Moreover, all opposition parties have not agreed with the NCCD. The Socialist Forces Front did not participate in Saturday's march. "As part of a political prohibited, we do not know their impact," said Lahouari Addi, who noted however that participation in the march of the Algerian Socialist Party - who recognizes him, the Islamists - could give more strength to the movement.
Another uncertainty about the echo of mobilization among the population: the trauma of a decade of Islamic violence. After a protest movement in October 1988, Algeria has experienced a brief period of democratization, which has seen the emergence of the Islamists and the civil war. "Algerians have been traumatized, tortured.
They know that politics is dangerous. Hence their timidity: they are afraid of repression," view Lahouari Addi. In addition, scattered in "unorganized forces", the Islamists have no advantage since the dissolution in 1992 by the power of hello Islamic Front (FIS), which had dominated the aborted elections of 1991.
The absence of the Islamists of the NCCD "deprives a popular base," according Lahouari Addi. In contrast, Mokhef Mansfield, head of the Middle East and North Africa at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI), mobilization can count on a player indisputable: "The youth are frustrated, disillusioned, she claims that she do not know.
" In Algeria, "where under age 30 constitute 70% of the population," said the researcher, one in five is unemployed. Yet these young people "do not identify with any party," said Mansfield Mokhef, hoping that NCCD could be their "megaphone". But unlike Tunisia and Egypt, the youth will not, according to Selma Belaala, rely on the Internet and social networks.
"This objection does not relay, mass communication via the Internet does not exist in Algeria for the Internet, it must be secured." Without relay or credible opposition, the researcher considers that the mobilization "has stalled". For other experts, if the campaigns can hardly be represented by the opposition and backed by the people, change will come from within.
Faced with this frustration and uprisings Tunisian and Egyptian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced on Thursday, February 3, measures to promote employment and public freedoms, including the waiver "in the very near future" - but still awaited - the state of emergency declared in 1992 on behalf of the "fight terrorism" against the Islamists.
He also promised better access to media for opposition parties. Mr. Bouteflika, 73, was elected president in 1999 and reelected in 2004. After a November 2008 amendment to the Constitution, which notably raised the limit on the number of presidential terms, he was reelected in 2009 for a third five-year, which runs until 2014.
But more than president, the army that holds the reins of the country and could accelerate the change. "The military feels it must take the lead because she understands that a big risk," Yahia Zoubir analysis, Maghreb specialist and professor of geopolitics at the School of Management Euromed Marseille.
And tell him the remarks allegedly made an official: "When you do not want a revolution, it must make its own revolution." Flora Knees 
Mobilizing the opposition calls to continue with another march Saturday, February 19. But according to experts, this opposition is an illusion: his weakness and lack of credibility could make it difficult for a real change in Algeria. Selma Belaala, researcher expert on Islamist movements at the University of Warwick (United Kingdom), all opposition parties have been discredited: "Algeria is sorely lacking in opposition (...).
The population is without representative, without political organization able to take over a message of protest. " Above all, the people can believe in parties that are opposed to "has compromised with the regime and has aged terribly," says the researcher. Originally the march of 12 and 19 February, the National Coordination for Change and Democracy (NCCD), founded after the riots in January that killed 5 people and injured over 800.
This coordination requires "system change" etregroupe organizations of civil society, trade unions unofficial league of human rights and a political party, the Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD). However, for Selma Belaala, the RCD leader, Said Sadi, "has more credibility because he has associated with power" and that "therefore confuses the credibility of the opposition." Lahouari Addi, a sociology professor specializing in the Maghreb at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Lyon, also believes that the party plays an ambiguous role: "In [his] claims, [the DRC request] especially the departure of Bouteflika, without insist on the departure of the military system.
This ambiguous position explains why the population does not follow, "he says. Moreover, all opposition parties have not agreed with the NCCD. The Socialist Forces Front did not participate in Saturday's march. "As part of a political prohibited, we do not know their impact," said Lahouari Addi, who noted however that participation in the march of the Algerian Socialist Party - who recognizes him, the Islamists - could give more strength to the movement.
Another uncertainty about the echo of mobilization among the population: the trauma of a decade of Islamic violence. After a protest movement in October 1988, Algeria has experienced a brief period of democratization, which has seen the emergence of the Islamists and the civil war. "Algerians have been traumatized, tortured.
They know that politics is dangerous. Hence their timidity: they are afraid of repression," view Lahouari Addi. In addition, scattered in "unorganized forces", the Islamists have no advantage since the dissolution in 1992 by the power of hello Islamic Front (FIS), which had dominated the aborted elections of 1991.
The absence of the Islamists of the NCCD "deprives a popular base," according Lahouari Addi. In contrast, Mokhef Mansfield, head of the Middle East and North Africa at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI), mobilization can count on a player indisputable: "The youth are frustrated, disillusioned, she claims that she do not know.
" In Algeria, "where under age 30 constitute 70% of the population," said the researcher, one in five is unemployed. Yet these young people "do not identify with any party," said Mansfield Mokhef, hoping that NCCD could be their "megaphone". But unlike Tunisia and Egypt, the youth will not, according to Selma Belaala, rely on the Internet and social networks.
"This objection does not relay, mass communication via the Internet does not exist in Algeria for the Internet, it must be secured." Without relay or credible opposition, the researcher considers that the mobilization "has stalled". For other experts, if the campaigns can hardly be represented by the opposition and backed by the people, change will come from within.
Faced with this frustration and uprisings Tunisian and Egyptian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced on Thursday, February 3, measures to promote employment and public freedoms, including the waiver "in the very near future" - but still awaited - the state of emergency declared in 1992 on behalf of the "fight terrorism" against the Islamists.
He also promised better access to media for opposition parties. Mr. Bouteflika, 73, was elected president in 1999 and reelected in 2004. After a November 2008 amendment to the Constitution, which notably raised the limit on the number of presidential terms, he was reelected in 2009 for a third five-year, which runs until 2014.
But more than president, the army that holds the reins of the country and could accelerate the change. "The military feels it must take the lead because she understands that a big risk," Yahia Zoubir analysis, Maghreb specialist and professor of geopolitics at the School of Management Euromed Marseille.
And tell him the remarks allegedly made an official: "When you do not want a revolution, it must make its own revolution." Flora Knees
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